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Tacit tilting
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 26 - 04 - 2007

Dina Ezzat suggests Egypt is moving closer to the Lebanese government
Despite Hizbullah's keeping its distance in an unmistakable and deliberate fashion, Egypt has always made an effort to show it has no direct stake in the internal Lebanese power struggle. Egyptian officials who harshly criticised Hizbullah's operation against the Israeli occupation which in part sparked the Israeli war against Lebanon last summer, have veiled this criticism with a coat of realism and pragmatism. They argue that their sympathy with the democratically elected Lebanese government is out of an inevitable affiliation with legitimacy, not one of affinity with a moderate and US-friendly government, versus a Hizbullah deemed extremist and by definition, an anti-US militant body over which the Lebanese government has no control. Indeed, Egyptian officials systematically deny any association between Cairo's sympathy with the Lebanese government and its terse relationship with Damascus, especially since tension remains, despite a brief meeting on the sidelines of last month's Arab summit in Riyadh.
This week, however, Cairo seemed to be making a carefully calculated decision to side closer with the Lebanese government but not too openly. By receiving Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora shortly after the Riyadh meetings, which were preceded and followed by other meetings and telephone conversations with him, Egypt is simply signalling a higher level of support than at the beginning of the internal Lebanese political crisis, along with the Israeli war on Lebanon last summer. And despite the fact that Egyptian officials wish to affirm that Cairo has kept its doors open to all Lebanese politicians, they cannot deny that it is primarily the members of the Lebanese government and other representatives of the Lebanese political majority who were promptly accorded appointments for meetings with senior officials upon their request. Egyptian officials speaking off the record have also have not bothered to conceal much of the blame which they heap upon the Lebanese opposition for leading Lebanon into what one called "an unhealthy political impasse."
Indeed, comments made by Al-Siniora following his meeting with President Hosni Mubarak at the presidential headquarters in Heliopolis on Monday morning indicated a sense of encouragement, regarding Egypt's support. Answering reporters' questions, Al-Siniora stated that as Lebanese prime minister he felt Cairo was keeping in touch with all key political parties. "Under President Mubarak Egypt has always taken a stance tailored to support Lebanon and all Lebanese. This has always been the case," Al-Siniora said. However, the Lebanese premier added that understandably "Egypt has also a clear position regarding the Lebanese government which it sees as constitutional and as such, it is supporting the Lebanese government while still being open to all parties."
Al-Siniora's statement is not the only sign of a closer affinity exercised by Cairo towards the Lebanese majority. During his talks in Egypt, the Lebanese prime minister discussed with Mubarak and Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif a deal by which Egypt would supply Lebanon with natural gas, a crucial source of energy for Lebanon which has for long depended on Syria as a major supplier. The fact that Al-Siniora is pursuing Egyptian energy could force Syria to reduce its energy supply to Lebanon. Such concern could only be read in the context of a political process that Al-Siniora has been slowly but surely orchestrating to get the international community to overlook the rejection of the Lebanese opposition, under the leadership of Hizbullah, to pass the rules of procedure for an international tribunal to try the killers of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri. Given moreover that Egypt is well aware of the Syrian opposition to the tribunal, in view of the concern -- undeclared as it has been -- shown by Damascus for the implication of Syrian politicians and army and intelligence officials in Al-Hariri's assassination, it is hard to see Cairo's energy support for Lebanon getting in the way of the need for the tribunal to be passed.
Egypt's ambassador in Beirut Hussein Derar argued that the link is "super-imposed". Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly on the phone from Lebanon, Derar said the decision taken by Egypt to pursue an energy cooperation deal with Lebanon could only be understandable in view of the Lebanese need for energy resources and in view of the economic crisis being suffered by Lebanon as a result of the political crisis. "This is meant to support the Lebanese people," Derar said.
Derar insisted that Egypt was not taking sides. "Cairo has refrained from declaring a stance on the internal political dispute. Egypt has been in touch with all representatives of the Lebanese political spectrum," Derar added. He argued that while doing so, Cairo is not about to question the legitimacy either of the Lebanese government or the international tribunal.
Prior to Al-Siniora's visit to Cairo, Egypt's Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit called upon "all Lebanese to move steadily towards adopting the rules of procedure for the international tribunal". In a written statement, Abul-Gheit said, "it is best for the concerned constitutional Lebanese bodies to reach a consensus on the rules of procedure of the international tribunal." The top Egyptian diplomat warned that the failure of Lebanese bodies to move in this direction would simply "and inevitably take the matter away from Lebanese quarters to that of the UN Security Council."
Following the understanding that he exercised during meetings with Egyptian officials, Al-Siniora took his campaign for an international tribunal to the Arab League whose Secretary-General Amr Moussa had suspended mediation efforts for Lebanese reconciliation mainly due to the failure of the Lebanese opposition to agree with the government on the terms of procedure for the tribunal. During a joint press conference with Moussa, Al-Siniora said his government "will exert all efforts and exhaust all means that lead to the establishment of this tribunal in Lebanon, and let it be known that we really want this court to be established." However, he added that in the event of the failure of the Lebanese, a decision by the UN Security Council would perhaps be the alternative.
Meanwhile, Moussa did not give any tentative sign as to when, or for that matter if, he would go back to Lebanon to resume his mediation efforts. He indicated it was up to Lebanese parties to approach "the open doors of the Arab League should they wish to communicate a certain message or share a certain viewpoint."
With a clear, although not necessarily final, suspension of mediation by Moussa and with the failure of Saudi diplomacy to formulate an alternative, Lebanese parties seem to be left to their own devices and their ability to garner regional and international support.
In Cairo, Al-Siniora's criticism of Syria was above average, not just on its failure to support Lebanese reconciliation but also for its reluctance to cooperate on the demarcation of Syrian-Lebanese borders to allow for the liberation of the Israeli occupied Shabaa Farms. Al-Siniora seems to be gaining ground.


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