The second round of Syria peace talks is supposed to take place in Geneva this month thanks to the hard efforts of the UN special envoy, and perhaps Syrians themselves who are tired of their condition on both sides. One side of the talks encompasses Bashar Al-Assad's opposition and the countries supporting them; the other side is the regime in Syria and its supporters, like Russia and Iran. Many things have changed since Geneva I was held in June 2012. At that meeting all participants agreed, “Al-Assad must leave,” his departure to be eased by forming a transitional government. Iran wasn't invited to Geneva I. Meanwhile, the talks didn't turn out to be so beneficial for the Syrians. The fighting in Syria actually became more brutal and beyond of control with the appearance of Al-Qaeda fighters on the ground since 2012. But things have changed in Iran in a good way since June 2012. Now there is a moderate government in power, willing to mend fences with the international community — especially the United States. On Monday, Iran appeared to rule out its participation in the Syrian peace talks later this month, dismissing a US suggestion that it could be involved “from the sidelines” as not respecting its dignity. The matter of Iran's possible attendance at Geneva II has become a crucial and sensitive issue that even delayed the United Nations distributing formal invitations to chosen participants. The United Nations special envoy on Syria — Lakhdar Brahimi — and Russia have strongly supported Iran's attendance at Geneva II. Brahimi expounded on Iran's undeniable influence on the Syrian government and the major role it could play to convince President Al-Assad to form a transitional government and hold fresh elections to put end to the crisis. Iran has repeated that it is open to participating in the Geneva II talks if invited. But it is precisely the nature and scope of the invitation that is open to question. US Secretary of State John Kerry opened the door Saturday, 4 January, during his visit to Israel. Kerry said: “Now, could they contribute from the sidelines? Are there ways for them conceivably to weigh in? Can their mission that is already in Geneva be there in order to help the process? It may be that there are ways that that could happen. But that has to be determined by the (UN) secretary general and it has to be determined by Iranian intentions themselves.” Perhaps Kerry's suggestion for Iran's “participation” but not formal attendance — at the ministerial level — is deemed a way of letting Iran in without sparking further controversy among allies. Countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, close to the Syrian opposition, reject Iran playing a major role due to regional competition between these countries. The US gave the green light to the UN to invite Iran as a sideline contributor, in spite of rejections, but at the same time has not insisted that Iran be a full attendee. The year 2014 can be a good year for Iran if it performs a positive role at Geneva II. Reaching peace in Syria and putting an end to almost three years of bloodshed would be a huge achievement. Of course, removing Al-Assad from power wouldn't mean Iran giving up its stake in Syria's future. Future Syrian governments would have to get along with Iran, and with Saudi Arabia too. On Syrian's near borders, in countries like Lebanon and Israel, fears of radical Islamists — which have almost eclipsed the original fighting forces of the Syrian uprising on the ground — are growing. Lebanon has already been shaken more than once. Hizbullah's holding areas in Lebanon have been targeted by Syrian opposition forces or their supporters, especially in recent months. Hizbullah's fighters are in Syria backing up Al-Assad's army against rebels and proxy forces of outside powers. Some fear the confrontation between Al-Assad's supporters and opposition groups could draw Lebanon to another civil war if the crisis continues. Israel's security hasn't been jeopardised yet. But there is no guarantee that in the near future Israel's borders wouldn't be attacked by radical Islamist movements. For the sake of Israel for Washington, and for the sake of Hizbullah for Tehran, Iran and the US having a common interest in resolving the Syrian crisis. Iran's Arab neighbours may not be happy if Iran participates at Geneva II, but for a country like Turkey, whose borders are unsafe who faces a massive refugee crisis, Iran's help is crucial no matter what other Muslim allies have to say. Iran's foreign minister, Mohamed Javad Zarif, was visiting Turkey at the beginning of this week, 4 January. On an earlier visit in late November both countries called for a ceasefire before Geneva II. Some observers believe that Iran and Turkey, after a long period of bitter relations over numerous regional differences, perhaps could now unite at Geneva II to play a constructive role in the crisis in Syria. Turkey is close to moderate rebels and Iran is close to the Assad government. Al-Qaeda extremists will not be partners in peace talks. In sum, John Kerry gave Iran a green light to prove that Iran can be a force for regional stability. Now it is up to Iran to play its cards.
