Last week's high-profile visit to Cairo by Russian officials accomplished its intended aims at the strategic, economic and political levels. The timing of the visit and the seniority of the delegation underscored its significance. It was the first time since 1970 for a Russian minister of defence to visit the region and the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union that officials of the status of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu have appeared jointly in Cairo. Komsomoljskaja Pravda quoted members of the Russian delegation saying Egypt was especially interested in Russian military hardware, including M-17 helicopters, Tor-M1 and Bok M2 missiles, MIG-21 and SU-30 airplanes, and Yak-130 training planes. The newspaper added Egypt was prepared to spend $4 billion on Russian weaponry. Talks also addressed the possibility of upgrading the Egyptian army's Russian-made equipment dating from the 1960s and the possibility of establishing an Egyptian production line for Kalashnikovs. Sergei Chemezov, president of Russ Technologies and a member of the Russian delegation, announced that agreements to provide Egypt with aerial defence systems had already been signed. In a statement to the press issued in Dubai on Monday Chemezov said: “With respect to Egypt, a number of agreements have already been signed with regard to aerial defence systems. A number of other agreements are currently under discussion.” That Chemezov stopped in the UAE after his visit to Egypt is significant. Leaks that Dubai will be a major backer of any arms deals are probably true, says a high-level Egyptian military expert. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are keen to help back any Russian-Egyptian deals and Chemezov's presence in the UAE was jointly coordinated by Cairo and Dubai. According to an informed Egyptian source, the Russian and Egyptian delegations discussed military cooperation between the two countries in detail. “Military agreements that were subject to speculation are now reality. Contracts to be signed between the Ministry of Defence and the Russ Export group are being drawn up on the basis of understandings over Egyptian purchasing needs, prices, delivery dates, payment schedules and other such concerns,” he said. Russia reopened its Russian-Egyptian military bureau in 1993 following which Egyptian officers resumed trips to Moscow to inspect the Russian armaments. Political science professor Nourhan Al-Sheikh, a specialist in Russian affairs, notes that the success of the recent Russian visit did not emerge from thin air. In an interview with Al-Ahram Weekly she explained that recent successes testify to Cairo and Moscow's ability to build on past relations. “There is a turning point — the Strategic Partnership agreement signed during the former Russian president Dmitri Medvedev's visit to Cairo in 2009 — that many overlook,” she says. Egyptian-Russian military cooperation may have been relatively limited but it was constant, especially between 2005 and 2011, she adds. The geopolitical repercussions of a visit both sides describe as historic would not be lost on the participants. The delegations met against the backdrop of developments shaped by the 30 June Revolution, the rising profile of the military establishment and Egyptian determination to assert its autonomy, particularly with regard to foreign policy Some analysts describe Egypt's current foreign policy reorientation as a ground-breaking initiative to counter US policies towards the Middle East. Others are more reserved: a high-level Egyptian diplomatic source told the Weekly: “Although Cairo does not want to dispense with Washington it is clear that it has emerged from a cycle in which Washington was the lynchpin in Egypt's foreign relations. There are alternatives that must be explored and they do not only include Russia. They also include China with which Egyptian diplomacy is keen to develop a similar partnership, practical steps towards which will begin next week with the visit to Beijing by a delegation of Egyptian political forces.” “There is no doubt that there is a major change in Egypt's foreign policy orientation,” says Nourhan Al-Sheikh. “This reorientation is one facet of Egypt's challenge to America's project in the region following the Arab Spring. Washington had banked on the rise of the Islamist trend, as represented by the Muslim Brotherhood, which it believed would facilitate its designs to reorder the region and assign roles to regional parties in ways that it believed would promote US interests. Washington encouraged the Islamist trend assuming its ends would be more easily accomplished if it only had to deal with one group.” Washington's management of its interests in the Middle East was also dependent of Turkey, she adds. Ankara was allied to the Islamist regimes and was also a member of NATO. The 30 June Revolution, says Al-Sheikh, delivered a debilitating blow to the American project, not only on a domestic level with the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood regime but also vis-à-vis Turkey, co-architect of the, project, and the International Muslim Brotherhood which was “on the board of administration”. The reaction among Gulf countries in solidarity with Egypt delivered a further blow, feeding the growing impulse to rebel against the American yoke. “What this signifies is that, contrary to the belief prevalent among US politicians since [George] Bush Junior that Europe was the ‘old power', it is the US that is the ‘old power' in the world today.” Al-Sheikh stresses that Russia stands to gain from closer cooperation with Egypt. Arms deals with Egypt could open the doors to markets in other countries. There is also the question of Islamist extremism in the region, which Russia views from the perspective of its own experiences in Chechnya and Dagestan. Moscow no doubt sees the benefit of closer intelligence cooperation with Egypt. Though in the US some politicians and commentators are using the Russian visit to Egypt to criticise the Obama administration it was not given much coverage in the US press. Said Okasha, an expert in Israeli affairs at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, is currently in the US. He told the Weekly that while some in the US realise there has been a failure in Washington's management of its foreign policy in the Middle East, others believe the US should reduce its weight in the region, even with its commitment to Israel. In Israel, adds Okasha, there is a growing sense that Washington wants to focus its energies elsewhere and that regional developments are more and more determined from within, whether by pivotal powers in the Gulf or by re-emergent powers such as Egypt which is working to rebuild its regional profile. In addition, he says, Israel sees itself as a regional power. It possesses advanced conventional and unconventional weaponry to confront any potential threats. Some US analysts caution against exaggerating the geopolitical ramifications of Russia's re-emergence in the Middle East, which does not signify a return to the Cold War era. To entertain such a notion, they say, is an exercise in futility. The clock of international politics does not move backwards.
