Weeks before the twin explosions that hit Tripoli Friday, leaving 45 dead and hundreds injured, Lebanese army chief Jean Qahwaji disclosed that army intelligence was tracking down what he described as “terrorist cells” that plot to plant bombs in different parts across the country to fuel “a bloody civil strife”. Qahwaji's warning went unheeded. Such was the case of a report published two months ago by the Lebanese daily As-Safir in which the paper quoted Western intelligence reports warning that the country would confront “the big explosion” within a month or two. As Lebanon is bracing itself for “worse yet to come”, in the words of one former security chief, calls have been made for restraint, national reconciliation and the formation of a national unity government before the country collapses into open sectarian fighting. The twin attack that targeted two mosques in Tripoli, Al-Taqwa and As-Salam, unleashed a wave of speculation regarding the nature of the target. Tripoli-based journalist Ghassan Reifi pointed out that the two mosques were headed by two prominent Salafi sheikhs: Salem Al-Rafaai in Al-Taqwa Mosque and Belal Baroudi in As-Salam Mosque, where mostly followers of the Salafist current attend sermons and prayers. Both are known for their unwavering backing of the Syrian uprising against the regime of President Bashar Al-Assad. Al-Rafaai, who was said to be the target of the first attack, was the one who issued the fatwa of jihad in Syria in response to Hizbullah's involvement in the fighting. The aim, says Reifi, was clear: to drag armed Islamist groups in Tripoli into a vicious cycle of revenge, isolate the city and transform it into a bastion of extremism. Tripoli has played a central role in morally and logistically backing the Syrian uprising. Since the early days of the uprising, the city has been a main source of smuggling men and arms into Syrian territory. It has also lost scores of its men in the fighting in Syria. While Salafis have the upper hand and louder voice in shaping the religious identity of the city, a quick look at the map of Islamist forces in the city suggests a more complicated underlying reality. While the Salafis have adopted an anti-Hizbullah — and by association anti-Shia — discourse, blaming the resistance movement for the ills that have befallen Lebanon's Sunnis since the assassination of prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri in 2005, there are other currents in the city that have maintained good relations with Hizbullah, including Al-Tawheed movement with its two wings, headed by Bilal Shaaban and Hashim Munqara. Both have criticised discourse that incites sectarian venom among Sunni and Shia and are in favour of dialogue with Hizbullah. There is also Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya, which kept a low profile for a long time. Also Tripoli hosts the headquarters of Hizb Al-Tahrir, which calls for the return of the Caliphate and enjoys a modest presence and popularity. The Salafis — who are mainly independent sheikhs operating separately — wield significant clout, but are not alone. The identity of the culprits behind the Tripoli bombings was the focus of most statements by political forces in the city. As expected, several forces put the blame on “the Baathist regime” in Syria, as did the Muslim Scholars Association, which said the fingerprints of the Baathist regime could not be ignored. Many statements, while not mentioning Hizbullah by name, criticised what was deemed a campaign against the Sunnis of Lebanon and their sheikhs and mosques. A statement by a group of Tripoli politicians blamed “those who killed thousands in Syria” for dragging Lebanon into the strife. But even when a staunch opponent of Hizbullah like Mohamed Kabbarah was asked about the identity of the culprits, he answered in calculated words: “The hand of terror and crime does not belong to any sect or religion and all regions must be vigilant.” The Sunni religious establishment also took a firm stand against dragging the Sunni community into uncalculated angry reactions. Hours after the bombing, Lebanon's grand mufti, Sheikh Mohamed Qabbani, sought to dismiss any link between the Shia community and the bombing: “Muslims must know that the blast in the southern suburbs of Beirut was not executed by Sunnis and today's bombings in Tripoli were not orchestrated by Shias,” Qabbani said in a televised speech. He added: “This is a call for Lebanese of all sects to be aware of this terrorist message. They must wake up from their slumber.” While a majority of politicians, except for some lone voices like that of Khaled Al-Daher, MP for Tripoli, realise the dark and gloomy scenarios awaiting Lebanon if it is dragged into another round of civil strife, few have faith in regional actors who — as several Lebanese politicians have stated — have allegedly made the decision “to destroy Lebanon”. The crucial change here, explained one Lebanese analyst, is that the very regional actors who have been guarantors of Lebanon's stability are now seen as the ones working to fan the flames of civil strife. Particular focus is falling on Doha and Riyadh. A report in As-Safir suggested that both Saudi Arabia and Qatar would seek vengeance against Hizbullah for its involvement in the Syrian conflict — particularly after the battle for Al-Qusair — by transferring the conflict into Lebanon and planting the seeds of sectarian violence “to make Hizbullah pay dearly for the loss of billions of dollars” worth of investments in Syria and Lebanon. Lebanese commentators, however, argue that the onus is on Hizbullah, since it remains the stronger party in the Lebanese internal equation. Its decision not to allow itself to be dragged into a bloody sectarian game is, for some analysts, the only hope left that Lebanon can survive the Syrian crisis.
