The second round of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks started and closed on the same day openendedly with nothing substantial declared. Wednesday, 14 August, started with jubilation and celebrations across Gaza and the West Bank with the return of 26 out of 104 long-term prisoners in Israeli jails. They were greeted with fireworks, flags, cheers, tears and victory signs. The fate of the remaining prisoners depends on progress in the newly launched peace process, whose second round was to start only hours after the celebration ended. For 20 years in an on-again, off-again peace process, agreement on the thorniest issues — including the status of Jerusalem and the fate of Palestinian refugees — has eluded even the most seasoned negotiators. After total stalemate for the past three years, news of resuming peace talks raised queries more than hopes as to the possibility of working out a breakthrough, in particular at such a difficult time, given regional developments. “I believe there are parts in the Arab world that for them relaunching the negotiations can be an opportunity to support this, and to work together,” Israeli Justice Minister Tzipi Livni — who is participating in the current negotations round — said, alluding to turmoil in Egypt and Syria's civil war. The region is facing its toughest times in recent memory, and large-scale fighting against Israel seems unlikely. So the two sides may be that much more ready to cut a deal. While there's an increased chance of terror attacks on its borders, Israel's foremost enemies are preoccupied with other conflicts. Hizbullah and Bashar Al-Assad are engaged in Syria, and Hamas — which governs Gaza — absorbed a blow with the fall of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood government in July. The peace process only restarted in late July, after months of intensive mediation by US Secretary of State John Kerry who took office in February. Meanwhile, neither Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas nor Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu wants to attract blame for putting the brakes on US attempts at peace, a product of Kerry's intensive shuttle diplomacy. The last negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians broke down in October 2010 due to Tel Aviv's expansion of settlement activities in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. While talks were scheduled to open Wednesday, 14 August, Israel surprised the world on Tuesday by announcing that more than 900 new homes would be built in Gilo, a settlement across the pre-1967 Green Line in Jerusalem. The Gilo homes are in addition to 1,200 housing units in the West Bank and East Jerusalem approved Sunday, 11 August. All settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem are illegal under international law. Reckless or not, the timing — coming in the immediate run-up to the talks — is indicative for the Palestinians. Senior Palestinian official Yasser Abed Rabbo warned that, “settlement expansion goes against the US administration's pledges and threatens to cause the negotiations' collapse.” “It threatens to make talks fail even before they've started,” he added. Nonetheless, the talks took place on time. Kerry — the architect of the new peace talks — linked the new settlement announcements to internal Israeli politics, saying, “there are realities of life in Israel that have to be taken into account here.” How far these “realities” would affect the new beginning of peace talks remains a question. In ainterview with The Jerusalem Post, Guy Ben-Porat, an analyst with Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, said: “Because of its makeup, the Israeli government can't really go too far with the peace process. The right-wing parties in the government have said very clearly that they are okay as long as it's only talking, not doing any more than that.” Itamar Rabinovich, a professor at Tel Aviv University, also pointed out that one of the key partners in the ruling coalition is the right-wing and pro-settlement Habayit Hayehudi (The Jewish Home) Party, whose leader, Naftali Bennett, has threatened to leave the government if Netanyahu agrees to hand over land to the Palestinians — a move that would cause the government to collapse. Netanyahu's position is weak not only within the government, but also within his own Likud Party, as Rabinovich explained, pointing out that the party is sliding rightward with many of its moderates being replaced by hardliners whose views are closer to those of Habayit Hayehudi. Palestinians as well express widespread pessimism over Abbas's chances of persuading the right-wing government of Netanyahu to abandon its settlement programme and hand back land it captured in the 1967 war. Even the benefits of returning to the negotiating table do not sound appealing to ordinary Palestinians. Few Palestinians believe Kerry's promises of mass economic investment should talks proceed. Nor do they think that Israel will make concessions without Palestinian pressure at the UN to force its hand. “I oppose negotiations — it's pointless. How many years have we negotiated, and every time we lose more. We've achieved nothing,” said Ramallah resident Mahmoud Qasqas, a civil servant. “It would be better to do it from a position of strength. Why have talks in a position of such weakness?”
