Was it pure coincidence? Or was it part of a streak of bad luck that seems to have been plaguing the government and people of Turkey for a while? Why now? Only some weeks ago, Ankara secured an Israeli apology for the attack on the Mavi Marmara in the Mediterranean when, in late May 2010, it was on its way to Gaza to deliver humanitarian relief. In addition, the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has resolved to pursue the course of peace talks with the Kurds after decades of confrontation and conflict, and there were encouraging signs that progress could be made on this front. Things seemed to have been looking up for Erdogan who has his eye on the presidency and hopes to succeed the incumbent Abdullah Gül next year. Even on the foreign policy front his hopes were raised when US President Barack Obama asked him to adopt a tougher policy towards the Bashar Al-Assad regime in Syria and to help equip the opposition with arms. Then, suddenly, two explosions rocked Reyhanlõ, and threw everything into disarray. It probably triggered alarms in Washington, which may have been reminded of the mounting profile of jihadist forces with Al-Qaeda connections among the Syrian opposition. If this raises Washington's qualms again with regard to arming the opposition, this would come as a disappointment to Ankara, which has been biting at the bit to send in military aid to the Free Syrian Army. But the deadly explosions could signal the advent of something much more ominous. Which brings us to the pressing question of the moment: who did it? Who were the parties responsible, and why Reyhanlõ, in particular? Reyhanlõ, with a population of only 60,000, may give the impression of a sleepy town, but it requires little scratching beneath the surface to realise that it is fraught with tension and anxiety. For a long time, this town and its people have been an integral part of the terrain of the chronic conflict between the Turkish state and the separatist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) which has unfolded primarily in south and southeastern Anatolia. This makes it important in the negotiating process which the ruling Justice and Development Party has only just set into motion. So as much as this has raised the hopes of the people of Reyhanlõ and their fellow countrymen in that volatile Anatolian area, such hopes are still tinged with scepticism due to the failure of similar steps towards peace in the not so distant past. Moreover, to compound the problems of this area, the repercussions of the fierce fighting in Syria has begun to spill over the border into this area and to have an increasing impact on its inhabitants' lives in direct and sometimes tragic ways. This is precisely what Turkish authorities had feared since the outbreak of the uprising against Baathist rule in Syria. It came as no surprise, therefore, that Turkish authorities, as well as several Kurdish leaders, would conclude that the Al-Assad regime was behind the terrorist attack in Reyhanlõ, which is located in the province of Hatay, adjacent to the Syrian border. Naturally infuriated by this incident, both Vice Prime Minister Bülent Arõnç and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu demanded the international community to take a firm, immediate and unified stance against the regime in Damascus. Although Erdogan did not rule out the likelihood that the terrorist attack was connected with the conflict in Syria, he believes that another significant factor might be involved; namely, the recently inaugurated peace process between Ankara and the PKK. In accordance with the understanding struck between these two parties, the PKK had begun to withdraw from Turkish territory on 5 May, less than a week before the attacks. In a statement on Turkish television, the prime minister said, “these are delicate times. We have ushered in a new age with the process of resolving the Kurdish question. There are some who are unable to absorb this fact and who could commit acts of this sort.” At the same time he pointed out that Hatay is located next to the borders with Syria, and that the bombings could have been designed to trigger “sensitivities” in that ethnically mixed area. The Turkish prime minister's statement was, in fact, heavily loaded. The parties he did not openly name extended beyond the Baathist regime in Syria. Certainly he would also have had in mind the government of Nuri Al-Maliki in Iraq who would be keen to create problems for Erdogan whom he has come to view with increasing hostility since Ankara solidified relations with Arbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. Arbil has become a partner in the Ankara-Kurdish peace plan especially with respect to the disarmament of the PKK. Equally if not more stinging for Baghdad were the deals struck between Arbil and Ankara to export oil from Iraqi Kurdistan through Turkey to other corners of the world, and the fact that Iraqi Kurdistan President Mahmoud Barzani is using them as pressure cards in his negotiations with Baghdad over the Iraqi petroleum law and the Kurdish share of oil revenues, a subject of heated dispute between Arbil and Baghdad. Baghdad's response to the withdrawal of PKK fighters into Iraqi Kurdistan was terse but explicit. An Iraqi Foreign Ministry statement made it clear that it regards the entrance of PKK elements into Iraqi territory as a threat to national security and stability and an infringement of national sovereignty. Yassin Majid, a member of the Iraqi parliament representing the State of Law Coalition, said that the government and parliament needed to make a firm response to what he described as a flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty and independence. The MP quipped, “since when are the Kandil mountains (in northern Iraq) Turkish territory over which Erdogan and [PKK leader] Ocalan can negotiate a withdrawal agreement?” Suspicions in Turkey have ranged in other directions as well, but it is still too soon to make substantial conjectures. The investigations into the Reyhanlõ bombings have only just begun. Until they yield some results, the Turks appear to have little choice but to exercise restraint in the face of provocations that appear to be designed to drag their country into the Syrian quagmire.
