In what appeared to be a game-changing act on Israel's part, Israeli warplanes launched an air strike in the Syrian capital, Damascus, Sunday. The Syrian government said Israeli fighter jets fired air-to-ground missiles at a research centre in a Damascus suburb, a military post near the Lebanese border, and two other unspecific targets. However, Western intelligence sources quoting unnamed Israeli sources said the main target of the Israeli strike was convoy of Iranian-made missiles destined for the Lebanese Shia militia Hizbullah. An Israeli official told a Western news agency on condition of anonymity that the target was a shipment of Fatah-110 missiles en route to South Lebanon. The rockets reportedly have precise guidance systems allowing better aim than anything Hizbullah has in its arsenal. According to Ron Ben Yeshai, a prominent military analyst, the attack targeted an Iranian arms shipment stored in two different sites, including the reported Fatah-110 rockets, which use solid rather than liquid fuel. Israel had warned on several occasions that it wouldn't allow sophisticated weapons to flow from Syria to the Lebanese militia, an ally of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Israel also warned that the possible transfer of chemical weapons from Syria to Hizbullah was a red line. Syrian officials and media used the Israeli bombing as a propaganda tool to tarnish the image of armed fighters striving to end Al-Assad dynasty's 43 years of rule. One Syrian official was quoted as saying that Israel was coming to the “aid of the terrorists”. Syria's Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Migdad told an American news network that Israel's air strikes were interpreted as an Israeli “declaration of war” on Al-Assad's regime. Migdad said Syria would respond in a manner of its own time and choosing.
EMPTY RHETORIC: Syrian threats to hit back at Israel in retaliation are not being taken seriously by most observers and experts, Israeli and Arab alike. According to most Israeli experts on Syria, Al-Assad's priority is the survival of his regime and it is unlikely that he would open a front with Israel since this could speed up the regime's downfall. Israeli warplanes flew over Al-Assad's Damascus palace a few years ago, without being fired at by Syrian air defences and with no Syrian fighter jets scrambled to repulse the encroaching Israeli warplanes. Some pundits argue that Al-Assad regime's ultimate strategy is to maintain the survival and continuity of the Alawite sect in power. Hence, all threats of retaliation are a smokescreen. “Every other consideration, including resisting Israel, is subservient to the central goal, which is keeping the regime in power,” said Abdel-Kader Salah, a political scientist based in Hebron. Salah said he didn't think that the Israeli bombing was a game-changer. “I don't think Israel is interested in toppling the Al-Assad regime. Israel wants to make sure that Al-Assad's and Iranian weapons don't reach Hizbullah.” This view is supported by Roni Shaked, a veteran Israeli journalist. Shaked told Al-Ahram Weekly that Israeli leaders were not interested in upping the ante with Syria following Sunday's strike. “Israeli officials are keeping a low profile. There is no bombastic rhetoric and everyone is giving the impression that Israel is not interested in intervening in the Syrian civil war.” Shaked said Israel's main concern was the prevention of weapons, especially sophisticated and advanced weaponry, from reaching Hizbullah from Syria. On Monday, the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that Israel sent to Al-Assad a message via diplomatic channels assuring him that Israel had no intention of intervening in the Syrian crisis. The message reportedly made it clear to Al-Assad that the bombing of targets in Damascus didn't mean that Israel was targeting his regime.
LAST RESORT: Most Israeli pundits believe that Al-Assad could order missile or other attacks on Israel as a last resort measure. But this would be virtual suicide and might signal the imminent collapse of the regime. According to Ben Yishai, Syrian reprisal against Israel is unlikely, at least for the time being, given Israel's qualitative edge over the Syrian army, seriously weakened and exhausted by more than two years of internecine civil war, desertion and lack of training. However, a wounded Al-Assad can be very dangerous and might resort to elements of a Samson option if and when he comes to realise that his regime's days are numbered. While most Arab states contented themselves with verbal condemnation of the Israeli strikes, Al-Assad is also being attacked harshly in the Arab media, especially in the Arabian Gulf region, for failing to respond to the Israeli attacks. Questions as to why the Syrian army is used for destroying Syrian towns and villages and murdering the Syrian people en masse while cowering before the Israelis have been rife through the social electronic media. However, for a calculating regime such as that of Al-Assad, it is unlikely that such castigations — however legitimate — will make him embark on rash action against Israel, especially in the foreseeable future.
