Following his presidential victory and signs of international acceptance, Bashar Al-Assad might prematurely be assuming smooth political sailing for Damascus, writes Sami Moubayed Last Wednesday, a smiling President Bashar Al-Assad and his wife emerged from the Damascus Opera House and waved to crowds of supporters and onlookers. This followed his winning a second seven-year term in office after his party secured 97.62 per cent of votes during the presidential elections. The pro-Assad demonstrations that took place following the announcement of election results appeared to be sending a message to the outside world, particularly the United States, which has become increasingly unpopular with Syrians following the events of 9-11. The local state-run daily Al-Thawra summed it up by saying that the emotional outburst was "an open letter to all those who had tried to de-stabilise Syria". Meanwhile, the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 1757 authorising the establishment of an international tribunal to investigate the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafiq Al-Hariri, who was killed in a massive blast on 14 February, 2005. Syrian officials told journalists that if the resolution was passed under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, the international tribunal would spell disaster for Lebanon and mark a new chapter in foreign intervention in Lebanon's already troubled internal affairs. They further denied their involvement in the killing and stated that it was the work of Israel, which aimed to weaken Syria. One of the first Syrian officials to comment on the tribunal was Foreign Minister Walid Al-Moualim, who spoke at a joint press conference with his Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki. Al-Moualim said Syria would not get involved as the issue was a Lebanese one, and that Syria would not concede its sovereignty. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, who visited Damascus last month, responded by saying that the UN resolution was legally binding and that the international community should cooperate fully with it. The Syrians for their part claimed that the tribunal would be used against them politically. They also assumed that their relations with the US and the international community in general had improved recently. This followed the Baker-Hamilton report which recommended that the US engage Syria on Iraq. Furthermore, EU Chief Negotiator Javier Solana came to Damascus last March and advised that the ending of Syria's isolation would help resolve the problems of the Middle East. Tensions between Damascus and other Arab countries also appeared to have eased, following the Arab Summit in Riyadh. Other former critics of Syria, like German Minister of Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who cancelled a trip to Damascus minutes after Al-Assad's speech in 2006 in which he criticised the Arabs for their stance on Hizbullah, now showered Syria with praise, saying that its cooperation was essential in settling regional conflicts. Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi also telephoned Assad this week, similarly underlining the centrality of Syria's role in the region. The Americans -- who finally acknowledged that no solution to Iraq could be achieved without the help of Syria -- met the Syrians, for the first time since 2005, at the 10 March conference held in Baghdad. They then met again when Ellen Sauerbrey, the US assistant secretary of state visited Syria in March. This was followed by a visit from Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the White House, in April and more recently, at Sharm El-Sheikh with the high-profile meeting between Foreign Minister Al-Moualim and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Finally, the last Brammertz report praised Syria's cooperation with the UN commission in the Al-Hariri affair, noting: "the last three missions in particular were arranged and facilitated in a professional and timely manner by the Syrian authorities." It added that Syria "has continued to provide the commission with assistance in response to its requests within the appropriate timescales, and the commission is grateful for the logistical and security arrangements provided by Syrian authorities. Requests for further assistance were sent to 23 countries. Some countries did not cooperate, Brammertz added. Syria was not one of them" -- meaning, Syria was complying with UN Resolutions. But Syria's impression that the political storm had died out, faded when UN Resolution 1757 was passed. They believe that the Europeans are trying to pressure them over Lebanon and their support for Hizbullah, while the US wants it to pressure them on Iraq. Al-Assad was hoping that Damascus would once again play a central role in international and regional politics without Syria having to change its positions on Lebanon, Iraq, and Palestine. However, Syria is still committed to supporting Hamas in Palestine, and Hizbullah in Lebanon. Furthermore it is still opposed to Fouad Al-Siniora's cabinet in Beirut, the Americans in Iraq, and is still very close to the Iranians. Will the tribunal persuade Syria to change political direction? Only time will tell.
