The Baghdad Summit meeting last month that brought together several regional rivals has injected fresh hopes into calming tensions and building a larger community with a shared future for the Middle East nations and ushered in a new era for cooperation among member states. Another development militating in favour of rapprochement is the US defeat in Afghanistan, which has reinforced wider speculation that US President Joe Biden's recalibration of US policy in the Middle East might result in a US retreat from the region leaving its allies and foes alike to adapt to a new reality. There is not much public debate about how to accommodate the possible US absence and the power vacuum that it will leave in the region, but there are increasing concerns being voiced in private that a new wave of changes could spur profound shifts in regional political dynamics. And as a new status quo is emerging in the Middle East, the Arab region, which constitutes its geopolitical centre, faces multiple challenges, particularly with the rise of non-Arab countries such as Iran, Israel and Turkey as regional powers and influencers. Middle East security has always been in question since most of the region's countries came into being after World War I and have failed since then to shape a regional political order that deals with specific political, security and economic challenges. The Sykes-Picot Agreement between France and Britain that created the modern Middle East states out of the carcass of the former Ottoman Empire has been largely responsible for the region's failure to establish an Arab order capable of meeting constant geopolitical changes. The secret agreement drew new borders for the Ottoman Empire's provinces in the Levant and divided them into British and French spheres of influence, driving the entire region into a force-field of competing orders shaped by both local and foreign powers. Faced with power politics that were internal and external, the newly born states tried to search for a response, but attempts to forge an inclusive multilateral order dedicated to advancing regional stability have all but foundered on the region's countless sources of conflict, rivalry, intervention and complexity. While colonial residues and competition among the Western powers shaped the early stages of attempts to maintain security in a shaky region, the Cold War following World War II made an immediate impact on bids to organise a sold regional security system. Beset by chronic geopolitical and institutional limitations and crises, the Arab world has for decades exerted remarkably little influence on regional affairs, seeing its sway diminish as world powers have resisted taking up the mantle of security leadership. The Arab region has suffered more rivalries and conflicts than any other part of the world since the first Arab-Israeli War in 1948 triggered by the creation of the state of Israel at the expense of Palestinian Arabs. The Arab-Israeli conflict created a complex situation and has remained a catalyst for wars. It has had significant consequences on regional politics and on the security of the region that are still visible today. Realising their joint history, the dictates of geography, human and cultural bonds, and shared borders, the Arab states established the Arab League in 1945 to create a kind of Arab unity of purpose and respond to the new threat from Israel. Another bid to create a regional order, but from a quite different viewpoint, was the Middle East Treaty Organisation, or the Baghdad Pact, in 1955 that was set up in order to defend the region against the so-called Soviet expansionism. Numerous other bids, either bilaterally or collectively, were made over the next few decades to make alliances or set up regional groupings, such as Egyptian-Syrian unity in 1958, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the Arab Cooperation Council (ACC) and the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU). While the Arab League and the GCC have remained largely dysfunctional, other attempts to address the challenge of a regional order have also failed because the rules linking them have broken down into weakness and disarray, leaving the Arab world and the Middle East in general in a state of geopolitical non-entity. Today, the region once again finds itself in a force-field of competing orders. While the Arab powerhouses remain internally conflicted about their place in the region, the US, Europe, Russia, China, Turkey, Iran and Israel are key external actors jockeying for influence. As the Middle East remains a conflict zone for the US, Europe, China and Russia, the immediate challenge for the Arab world today is how to deal with attempts by Israel, Iran and Turkey to reclaim their role as preeminent actors on the regional stage. Israel, meanwhile, remains a persistent challenge to regional security as it doesn't even feign interests in a two-state solution and doing everything it can to keep Palestinian territories under its control. Underscoring the need to end the turmoil in hotspots like Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya, or ease the regional tensions that come at an enormous cost for regional security, crucial moves have been made to end the strained diplomatic relations between key Arab countries and Iran and Turkey in order to improve conditions on the ground. Saudi Arabia has engaged Iran in talks aimed at reducing tensions across the region, as the two sides back opposing sides in various conflicts, for example. The two countries are to hold their fourth round of talks soon in the Iraqi capital Baghdad, which they started in April, underlining progress in their efforts to break the deadlock. Egypt and Turkey have also been pursuing reconciliation after years in which Turkish–Egyptian relations have been at historic lows over what Cairo believes is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's personal affinity with the Muslim Brotherhood and his assertive foreign policy in several regional conflicts. Senior diplomats from Egypt and Turkey have held talks over the last few weeks to hammer out a deal over bilateral relations. They discussed Libya, Syria, Iraq and the Palestinian Territories before looking at ways of restoring ties between Egypt and Turkey. Egyptian Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouli told the US news service Bloomberg on Thursday that diplomatic ties with Turkey, downgraded for almost a decade, could be restored this year if outstanding issues are overcome. In another sign of intensified efforts to ease regional tensions, the leaders of Turkey and the UAE held talks to mend long-broken ties over policies towards Islamist groups and conflicts from Libya to Syria. Erdogan and UAE de facto ruler Mohamed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan made a rare telephone call early this month after a surprise visit to Ankara by UAE National Security Adviser Tahnoun Bin Zayed Al Nahyan that seemed to cap years of hostile rhetoric between the two countries. At first glance, all this may appear to mean that the region is heading towards a bigger rapprochement that will end the instability and pave the way for managing or even resolving long-time conflicts. But the path towards a multilateral regional security system in the Middle East that could be cooperative may also not be smooth. The potential is still high for friction, misunderstanding and conflict among the increasingly different ways of doing things across key regional players. One source of tension lies in the fact that Iran and Turkey remain entangled in regional hotspots and continue to play power politics and are therefore less likely to be linked in an era of no dominant power centres and the search for common interests. Another form of tension is the increasing role played by non-state actors such as militias and autonomous entities challenging not only nation-states but also the existing regional political order. Everything will remain hinged on the dangerous tide of the world powers' competition in the Middle East, which could leave the fragile region in further chaos if it remains unresolved or unchecked. It's not a cheery prospect for the Middle East and the Arab world should be better prepared to grapple with a new regional order that will emerge, set in motion by the series of geopolitical earthquakes that have hit the region. In order to adjust to this new reality, the Arab countries should stop acting according to their own vested interests and move towards establishing a regional system capable of protecting themselves and giving their societies the necessary means to thrive. *A version of this article appears in print in the 16 September, 2021 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
