Later this month Iraq is due to host a political and security meeting, trailed as a "neighbourhood conference", at head-of-state level. A full list of participants in the meeting has yet to be announced. So far, Gulf countries, Egypt, Jordan and several capitals with interests in the Middle East have indicated they will attend. With the Taliban takeover of Kabul following the abrupt, though long-promised, departure of US forces from Afghanistan, the gathering is quickly gaining significance. As one Egyptian official put it this week, the meeting offers an opportunity for states to exchange views over the future of the region in light of "the new" US position. Diplomatic sources who spoke during the week agreed that the decision of the Joe Biden administration to follow through on its predecessor's pledge to pull out of Afghanistan, combined with ending the combat mission of US forces in Iraq by the end of this year, signals determination on the part of Washington to disengage from the region. "We had been anticipating the end of the US presence in Afghanistan under [former US president Donald] Trump for a while, and though Biden delayed the withdrawal by a few weeks, ultimately he followed through," said one diplomat. According to another, the US "had in fact been more or less hands off" on most key regional issues for the four years of the Trump administration, and while "some might have hoped for Biden to act differently, the fact is that these withdrawals have considerable public support in the US." The diplomat added that the distressing scenes at Kabul airport, as thousands of Afghans desperately attempted to flee, were unlikely to impact on this backing. The end of any visible American combat presence in the region is but one sign among many of Washington's desire to disengage which, the same diplomats argue, first became apparent in the closing years of the Barack Obama presidency. Barring acts of containment engendered by crises — as was the case during the war on Gaza earlier this year — the US has been determinedly hands-off, they argue, citing Washington's reluctance to use its influence to intervene in Lebanon despite the alarming situation there, and its at best lukewarm engagement with the ongoing political crises in Tunisia or Algeria, as evidence. In Libya, the same diplomats say, the US is applying "measured intervention" in cooperation with allies. The "larger Middle East", however, remains significant to US interests, meaning that "ultimately this is a disengagement with some sort of an arrangement", argued one diplomat. He added that "CIA chief Bill Burns was clearly in the region this week to consult on future security and political cooperation." Burns visited Israel, the Palestinian territories, and had a short stopover in Lebanon before arriving in Egypt. Containing Iran, managing the Palestinian territories and Lebanon, and reducing the Russian presence in Libya were on top of Burns' agenda. A source familiar with the CIA chief's talks in Cairo said "issues of bilateral concern between Egypt and the US, including aid and good governance, were also discussed" though these were "of less significance to the visiting US official than the security situation in the Palestinian territories and Libya". Mohamed Fayez, director of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, says "the most significant message received while watching this week's withdrawal from Afghanistan is that the US is giving up on the role it assumed 20 years ago, in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, when the [George W] Bush administration decided to use US military and political might to combat terrorism, reform failed states and promote democracy." While some commentators argue that the Taliban today will be less brutal than it was when it ruled Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001, and more loath to allow terrorist groups like the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda to operate on Afghan territory, Fayez, who has followed the Afghan scene closely, is far from optimistic. "I think there might be a few changes in the public posturing of the Taliban, but essentially the Taliban of today is exactly the same as the Taliban of 2001," says Fayez. What the US has done in Afghanistan, he argues, is to strike a deal with a militant Islamist group that has direct and indirect links with other terrorist groups and which continues to offer them help, implicitly and explicitly. Which, he continues, begs an important question: will the US, using the same version of realpolitik, opt to make deals with similar extremist groups elsewhere in the region? "At the very least, what happened in Afghanistan forces questions about the possible future role of non-state actors, and the types of relationships Washington can tolerate with these actors," he says. And how, asks Fayez, does Washington intend to rework its existing alliances in the coming months? Clearly, he argues, it will have to decide which capitals it will entrust with the task of keeping a lid on the promulgation of extremist Islamist movements. "Whatever happens, Afghanistan will turn into a venue for battling powers as the region enters a new, post-US disengagement phase." China, says Fayez, has already established contacts with the Taliban leadership — Afghanistan lies at a crucial juncture of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative — and the Chinese could help the Taliban open channels of communication with Russia. Chinese/Afghan relations could also serve as a conduit for heightened tensions between India and China. Despite its disengagement, argues Fayez, the US will continue to work for a deal with Iran, attempt to pacify the most explosive situations across the Arab world, and work to frustrate the growth of Chinese and Russian influence. This will, however, still leave Washington's allies facing a host of uncertainties. In the wake of the Taliban takeover, Gulf states face serious security questions which will become more urgent as Turkey and Pakistan assume a bigger role in terms of managing US regional interests, either by providing channels of dialogue or bases for security operations. Egypt will also have to maximise its security readiness given the possibility of a surge in militant groups' activity. "We will continue to act to deter the rise of militant groups in our zone of strategic interest and we are keeping a close watch on possible deals the US might be planning with other militant groups," said an informed security source. Egypt, he added, is particularly concerned about developments in Somalia, despite the Al-Shabab Movement being labelled a terrorist group by Washington since 2008. Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Roble arrived in Cairo for a three-day visit on Monday. His talks with Egyptian officials were scheduled to cover security and political cooperation between the two countries. *A version of this article appears in print in the 19 August, 2021 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
