Despite its military superiority and its declared intention to take control of the southern city of Daraa, the last stronghold of the opposition in the south of the country, the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has thus far not been able to enter the city. Over the last month, regime forces supported by military forces loyal to Iran have been laying siege to Daraa, demanding its surrender. But though they are faced by only a few hundred fighters armed with primitive weapons, they have not been able to do so. The opposition forces in southern Syria have come together to fend off attacks from the Syrian regime, saying that they will fight on "against Al-Assad and his militias and against all terrorist groups including the Islamic State (IS)." They said that they would continue to fight, along with the population of the city, until all the city's residents, estimated at 50,000 people, are allowed to leave for neighbouring Jordan. There is coordination between the representatives of the opposition and local tribal groups. The Daraa Hauran Tribal Council released a statement saying that the people of Daraa had administered their affairs well without the help of the Damascus government and that Syria's provinces should be allowed to choose their own representatives and hold them accountable at the local level. The statement said that the council rejected the sectarianism it said was fostered by the Al-Assad regime, describing the latter as "corrupt" and run by "criminals". The future of the country lay with the peaceful transfer of power in accordance with international resolutions and especially UN Security Council Resolution 2254, it said. The Syrian regime has not responded to international condemnation of its attacks on Daraa. It has brought in more military forces in preparation for the storming of the city and has prevented the access of basic goods and electricity. France has condemned the attacks carried out by Syrian regime forces in Daraa, adding that the crisis in Syria can only be resolved politically on the basis of the appropriate UN Security Council Resolutions. The US also condemned the attacks on Daraa. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for an immediate halt to the violence and for a ceasefire across Syria based on UN Security Council Resolution 2254. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell said that "all the parties must as a first priority protect the inhabitants of Daraa and ensure unhindered, safe, and sustainable humanitarian access" to the city. He said the EU joined UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen in calls to protect civilians, avoid escalation, and restore calm. UN Security Council Resolution 2254, issued on 18 December 2015, calls on all the parties in Syria to halt attacks against civilian targets and for the regime and opposition to negotiate with a view to the holding of UN-monitored elections and a political transition in the country. The opposition in Daraa has asked Russia to intervene in the conflict as a mediator between it and the regime, asking it to help to find a solution satisfactory to all the parties. The opposition believes that Russia does not want to see an escalation of the violence in the region due to the sensitivity of an area on the border with Israel and Jordan. While Russia wants to assist the Syrian regime in regaining control of southern Syria, the opposition believes this will not be at any price. Israel also wants the current balance of power in the area to be maintained because it ensures that Iranian militias stay away from its border. In response, Moscow has held a series of meetings with opposition representatives in Daraa, leading to a roadmap that establishes the Saraya crossing point as a humanitarian bridge for those leaving and entering opposition-controlled areas. Russian patrols will monitor the ceasefire and receive the handover of the opposition's light weapons. In return, the opposition has demanded the release of detainees by the regime, a halt to the ongoing violence, and a commitment to the ceasefire agreement. Syrian Negotiations Committee Spokesman Yehia Al-Aridi said the Syrian regime, Russia, and Iran were facing a crisis in Daraa that was "a microcosm of Syria" as a whole. "The regime is in crisis… and is counting on militias that have their own agendas. [Russian president Vladimir] Putin is also facing a crisis as he wants political gains in Syria. Iran is facing a similar dilemma, wanting to negotiate the fate of others for its own gain," Al-Aridi said. Bashar Al-Haj Ali, an opposition member and former diplomat, said that "if the regime tries to displace the fighters, it will lead to regime forces storming homes and exacting revenge on Daraa, the cradle of the revolution." The conflict in Syria, breaking out ten years ago, began with demonstrations against the Al-Assad regime in Daraa. Hassan Al-Hariri, a member of the local constitutional committee, said that "it is not in the interest of the people of Daraa to agree to a Russian-sponsored roadmap that does not guarantee their rights." For Amgad Al-Zoubi, a Syrian political analyst, "the geographical location of Daraa has attracted Iran and the militias that support it, and Israel and Jordan border the region. This has brought Russia in as a mediator, and now all four parties are concerned that one of their number does not impose its control over the region." Moscow wants to develop its relationship with the new US administration, and it also agrees with the US in wanting to reduce Iranian influence in the region. It seems unlikely that Moscow will allow the Al-Assad regime and Iranian militias forces to control all of southern Syria. Amid the complications, Moscow will likely try to calm the situation, strengthening its position with the opposition and the regime alike and improving its international negotiating position by finding a compromise solution in Daraa. These steps will garner gains for Russia and may reduce the strength of the American position, especially in terms of placing sanctions and economic restrictions on Syria and on Russian companies that wish to work with it. Until there is a clear path to solving the Daraa dilemma, this city which saw the first sparks of the Syrian revolution ten years ago will remain captive to the aspirations of others. *A version of this article appears in print in the 19 August, 2021 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
