In its last issue, Al-Ahram Weekly published my article, “Confrontation and stalemate”, in which I dealt with the military and diplomatic implications of the endless battles raging in Libya. When writing the article, a major air force base in western Libya, Al-Watiya, was a major military prize. The base was still in the hands of the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA), under the command of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, which had lately incurred significant military losses at the hands of forces loyal to the internationally-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). Four days after publication, the air base fell and the LNA said it had undertaken what it termed a “tactical retreat”. The fact of the matter is that the fall of this major air base means that the military momentum in Libya has shifted favourably to the forces of the GNA, aided, assisted and advised by the Turkish army. The Tripoli-based government has made clear that it intends to pursue its military offensive against the LNA with the objective of pushing Haftar to lift the siege of the southern parts of Tripoli. Some political and military sources have even raised the prospect of chasing the Haftar's forces out of the western parts of Libya. Actually, the Tripoli forces are attacking the town of Tarhouna, south of the capital. No one knows whether by the time you will be reading this article the town would be still in the hands of the LNA or not. In case it falls, that would be a major military setback to the LNA and the international and regional powers that have been aiding Haftar, particularly after the ill-advised offensive against Tripoli on 4 April 2019. In retrospect, this ill-planned offensive proved disastrous for the LNA and its backers. It brought expansionist Turkey into the Libyan equation. The next move for Turkey could be the installation of Turkish military facilities in Libya. That would be a very grave game changer in terms of the security and stability in North Africa and the southern and the eastern Mediterranean. For Egypt, it would be a major escalation on the part of the Tripoli government and its Turkish backers. Trying to contain the conflict and avoid an uncontrollable escalation, Russia and Turkey, each supporting opposing sides in Libya, called on Thursday, 21 May, for a ceasefire and emphasised the importance of reaching a political solution in accordance with Berlin Declaration on 19 January 2020. Whether their moves on the ground would lend credibility to such a public position remains to be seen. Many experts and observers believe that the present situation in Libya is not dissimilar from the status quo in Syria. A conflict situation, fought by proxies, and no one of the influencers either has the will or the capacity to bring the conflict to a close. Open-ended battles of attrition for the belligerents without an end in sight. Probably one major difference between the two situations is that in Syria and the neighbouring countries there are red lines that all outside powers involved respect. For Libya, and in its immediate neighbourhood, no clear lines have been drawn within the country itself and in North Africa. In this context, the Egyptian president in remarks after the fall of Al-Watiya, said that the national security of Egypt is linked to the security and stability of Libya. In a video conference with the heads of state in the Contact Group of the African Union last week, Egypt and other member countries in the group reiterated their commitment to a peaceful resolution of the Libyan conflict, and Egypt stressed how important it is to fight “terrorist groups” in Libya. Stephanie Williams, the acting UN envoy to Libya, told the Security Council this week that “from what we are witnessing in terms of the massive influx of weaponry, equipment and mercenaries to the two sides, the only conclusion that we can draw is that this war will intensify, broaden and deepen.” A very scary scenario. Egypt rightly follows recent developments on the battlefield with serious concern. It has 1,000 kilometres of joint borders with Libya that should be defended around the clock against the infiltration of terrorists — particularly Syrian mercenaries brought by Turkey from Turkish-backed terrorist groups in northern Syria to fight the LNA. With the deployment of 14 Russian MiG fighters and Su fighter bombers in Libya, the overall situation in Libya becomes very complicated, and the prospects of escalation are greater today. Last week, the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, warned while addressing a session of the French National Assembly that what the world is actually witnessing in Libya is what he termed the “Syrianisation” of the Libyan conflict. If this is true, then a peaceful resolution to the conflict won't materialise anytime soon. The Russians and the Turks will be the arbiters, and Libya will become a destabilising hot spot in North Africa and in the southern and eastern Mediterranean. On the other hand, getting directly involved in the Libyan quagmire is not a viable option. Recent military developments in Libya, coupled with the poor performance of Haftar's forces at the gates of Tripoli after more than a year of laying siege to the southern districts of Tripoli, call for a pause and a reassessment of our diplomatic alternatives in Libya. Betting on the Field Marshal is one option that calls for deep rethinking on our part. 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The writer is former assistant foreign minister.
*A version of this article appears in print in the 4 June, 2020 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
