An Israeli cabinet meeting on Sunday to approve the annexation of settlements in the Occupied West Bank and Jordan Valley was cancelled at the last minute after reports suggested that the US administration had put the brakes on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plans to annex parts of Palestinian land, especially on the border with Jordan, in anticipation of Arab acceptance of US President Donald Trump's peace plan. The plan, dubbed the “Deal of the Century,” was unveiled last week in Washington by Trump and Netanyahu and swiftly rejected by the Palestinians. The Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation also rejected the plan, though some parties in the region are giving tacit consideration of it as the “only available solution” to the conflict in Palestine. Netanyahu, facing a third election in a year next month, saw the White House's announcement of the plan as a boost to his election chances and wanted to achieve a campaign promise of annexing more Palestinian land. But the Trump administration does not want it to look as if it is just backing Netanyahu in his internal Israeli political struggles. That would push the two main Arab countries bordering the Gaza Strip and West Bank away from publicly endorsing the plan. The position of these two parties, the only Arab countries who have signed peace treaties with Israel, is significant for the peace plan to work. Both Washington and Tel Aviv know the precarious position of the Jordanian leadership. Putting Jordanian King Abdullah II in a position where he would have to confront his own people would not be helpful, according to some American and Israeli officials. The Israeli annexation of the Jordan Valley in particular could lead to popular unrest in Jordan and threaten the king's position. So far, the official position from Amman has not been much different from the official pan-Arab position of endorsing the two-state solution according to UN resolutions and the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002. But according to Jordanian pundits who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly, there is “behind the scenes” consideration of the plan taking place in Amman. Just before the announcement of the plan, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed on a new loan package for Jordan, something that would not have been possible without American consent. There are economic benefits from the plan that Jordan is in dire need of, and probably an opportunity to share control of the $4 billion a year Palestinian arrangements that Israel solely controls for now. But this has also fed fears among many Jordanians that the plan will ultimately lead to what the Israeli far right has long been pushing for in the acceptance that Jordan is Palestine. This would mean that Jordan would have to shoulder responsibility for the Palestinian cities of the promised State of Palestine. Parts of the plan could be read in that context, especially those that include the Palestinian border crossings and Jordan's role in infrastructure projects that have been promised to be financed according to the economic side of the plan. “Subject to the consent of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, the State of Palestine may use and manage an earmarked facility at the port of Aqaba, without prejudice to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan's undisputed sovereignty at the port of Aqaba. The purpose of the earmarked port facility will be for the State of Palestine to benefit economically from access to the Red Sea, without compromising the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan's security,” the plan says, going on to give Jordan security responsibility over the “earmarked facility.” “The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan will help the State of Palestine establish a fast-track transportation system that will allow the State of Palestine to transport all cargo,” it says. Jordan is thus caught between a rock and a hard place, facing multiple pressures from all sides. The Jordanian people are against the plan and accumulating public resentment over current economic hardships might just be waiting for a spark to ignite unrest in the country. The internal pressure is combined with external pressure mainly from Jordan's allies the United States and the Arab Gulf countries. Despite the “principled” position it has expressed to date, Jordan's options for opposing the plan are limited. It has no substitute for its alliances with the United States and the Gulf countries. Despite its efforts to draw closer to Russia by thawing relations with Syria, Russia provides neither a diplomatic nor an economic alternative to American support, which is essential for Amman to get international financial help. Jordanian relations with the Gulf countries are not at their best, yet Amman cannot afford to cut them. In 2018, the UAE and Saudi Arabia provided Jordan with much-needed assistance of $2.5 billion. The only leverage Jordan has got is to at least threaten to cancel the peace treaty with Israel as a way of exerting pressure against the plan and appeasing growing internal opposition to it within the country. But scrapping the peace treaty would be a dangerous step for Jordan to take with no benefits. It would not deter Israel from annexing the Jordan Valley, while it might end Jordan's influence in the peace process and turn the kingdom into an enemy state for Israel and the United States, which would be an outcome Jordan could not afford. The next few weeks will be decisive in international reactions to the plan, and the Jordanians are on their toes hoping that the best will come out of the worst.
*A version of this article appears in print in the 6 February, 2020 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly.
