Political risks to watch for in Syria

The Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has some political and economic challenges to face as a result of the six-month domestic turmoil in the country

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad faces an emboldened protest movement that is unbowed after nearly six months of military crackdown and is now inspired by the fall of Libya's Muammar Gaddafi.
The 45-year-old leader has offered a range of economic and political concessions to protesters but relied increasingly on the army and security to crush unrest in which Syrian rights groups say 2,000 civilians have died.
Authorities say they face an armed conspiracy and blame gunmen for the deaths of more than 500 soldiers and police.
The crisis is the gravest facing Syria since Assad's father crushed an armed Islamist uprising in 1982. Western powers have imposed sanctions, while Arab states and neighbouring Turkey have called for the bloodshed to end.
With the economy in downturn and foreign currency flows drying up, financial pressures will test the loyalty of the business elite. Protests, which have been mainly peaceful so far, could also turn increasingly violent.
Turmoil in Syria could spill over to neighbouring Lebanon, Israel, Turkey and Iraq through cross-border ethnic and sectarian ties, and because of Assad's close alliance with Iran and the militant Islamist groups Hamas and Hezbollah.
Here are some risks to watch:
PRESSURE ON ASSAD
Protests erupted in the southern town of Deraa in mid-March, prompted by the arrest of 15 youths for writing anti-government graffiti on walls, a rare protest in one of the Arab world's most tightly controlled states.
They soon spread across Syria, at first demanding greater freedoms and then Assad's overthrow, echoing slogans of the Egyptian and Tunisian revolts. More recently, protesters have called for Assad to be tried in The Hague or even executed.
Demonstrations have been mainly peaceful but there have been increasing reports of attacks on security forces.
In response to the unrest Assad lifted 48 years of emergency rule, granted citizenship to stateless Kurds, announced prisoner amnesties and passed legislation to allow parties to challenge the ruling Baath Party in a parliamentary election he has promised by February.
But even as some prisoners were released, thousands more were detained. Most opposition figures say they cannot negotiate with authorities while the bloodshed continues.
There has been a steady trickle of military defections of mainly low-ranking soldiers, but the armed forces and security forces have so far remained loyal -- unlike in Egypt and Tunisia where the military helped usher presidents from power.
Many army commanders belong to Assad's family and his minority Alawite community, which holds sway in the majority Sunni Muslim country. Military power remains central to Assad's efforts to maintain control of the country of 20 million.
What to watch
- More army defections, attacks on security forces
- Signs of division in top leadership
INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE
The United States and European Union have imposed an embargo on Syrian oil and sanctions against senior officials, but show no sign of repeating a Libya-style military intervention -- although some protesters are now calling for outside help.
Regional powers, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, have stepped up their criticism of the violence, and even close ally Iran has said Damascus must listen to its people.
The United Nations Human Rights Council has agreed to launch an inquiry into possible crimes against humanity during Assad's crackdown and Western powers want the Security Council to agree to UN sanctions on Damascus.
But veto-holding council members China and Russia have resisted such a move, and it is not clear what further international measures can be taken against Syria.
Neither Turkey nor the Arab countries have much leverage over Syria, and fears about what might follow the collapse of Assad's rule weigh even on his Western critics.
The Syrian president's alliance with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas give him a powerful hand to play in any regional showdown.
Israel would not mourn the exit of a leader so closely allied with its enemies, yet until demonstrations on the frontier in May and June, Assad and his father had kept the border quiet since the 1973 war despite Israel's continued occupation of the Golan Heights.
Lebanon, Iraq and Turkey would all worry that sectarian or ethnic bloodshed in Syria could spill across their border, whipping up regional tensions between Arabs and Kurds, Christians and Muslims or Sunnis and Shi'ites.
What to watch:
- After Libya, any new look at foreign intervention
- Any easing of Russian, Chinese opposition to sanctions
ECONOMIC FALLOUT
The turmoil has hit an economy already struggling with unemployment, poverty, water and power shortages, along with falling oil output and population growth of 2.5 per cent a year.
In a forecast calculated before the prospect of EU oil sanctions, economist Lahcen Achy of the Carnegie Middle East Centre said the economy -- which the IMF said at the start of 2011 would grow three per cent in 2011 -- would shrink five per cent.
Tourism has been ravaged, while trade, manufacturing and foreign investment have all fallen sharply. Bank deposits fell 29 per cent to 241.7 billion Syrian pounds ($5.1 billion) in the first six weeks of the protests.
The Central Bank says much of that money has returned after it hiked interest rates on deposits in early May, but moves to limit sales of dollars in August suggest it is struggling to support the local currency, despite foreign reserves believed to total $16 billion to $18 billion at the start of the year.
The wealthy merchant classes in Damascus and Aleppo have so far remained loyal, but there are growing complaints over the costs they are bearing from lost business.
What to watch:
- Sustained economic damage testing business elite's loyalty
- Moves towards wider trade embargoes against Syria