CAIRO - Morsi will not be reinstated. This fact has yet to dawn on the majority of his Muslim Brotherhood's followers—although the group's leaders seem to have come to terms with it. Almost two weeks after the army's ouster of Morsi following massive street protests against him, thousands of the Brotherhood supporters continue to camp out in Raba'a el-Adawaiya in eastern Cairo amid repeated vows that they will not leave before Morsi is restored to power. The fact-paced changes on the ground both at home and in the outside world make this demand impossible. A new interim government is in the making and so is a panel to amend a contentious constitution drafted by Islamists. Washington, the Brotherhood's key ally, has already described Morsi's rule as undemocratic, in a major policy shift. So what are the options available to the Brotherhood? The group's leaders are obviously mobilising its popular base – although the Brotherhood popularity has sharply declined of late – to place pressure on the new rulers and ensure that they (the Brothers) will not be thrown into jail again. Morsi's fate is no longer a top issue for the group, which looks at pains to preserve its existence threatened by the crushing blow dealt by the people with the army's backing. This public mobilisation is likely to be stepped up in the coming weeks as the group is seeking to ensure the best possible guarantees against prosecution or prosecution. As part of its muscle-flexing tactics, the Brotherhood will most probably send its followers, now sitting in Raba'a el-Adawiya under harsh living conditions, to stage protests in other areas of the capital to draw attention of the media and opponents. However, this tactic is risky because it can trigger fresh clashes with opponents or even security personnel. A riskier tactic, which started to unfold in the troubled Sinai Peninsula, is to attack army and police troops and their facilities. The other day, a senior Brotherhood official linked cessation of these attacks to Morsi's reinstatement. Sinai is believed to have become a magnet for jihadists under Morsi's one-year-old presidency. Resorting to violence threatens not only to further erode the Brotherhood's popularity among Egyptians, but also diminish chances for its inclusion in the post-Morsi process. It will, moreover, give a legal justification for a controversial detention campaign targeting the Brotherhood leaders. Hence, the possibility of having them imprisoned and their group outlawed.
