In his remarkable novel Utopia, published in 2008, Egyptian author Ahmed Khaled Tawfik offers a gloomy prognosis for the future of the Egyptians. In Utopia, people are divided into two groups. The first are the upper class, the very rich, who live on the North Coast, where they have fun and enjoy extreme luxury. These people have everything, while the second group are the lower class, the very poor, who have nothing and live in the capital, which – according to the novel – has become a big, inhuman rubbish dump, where no-one deserves to live. The North Coast people rule the country and never think of anybody but themselves, while the people in the capital are regarded as something that should be destroyed: ugly, dirty savages, killers and rapists lacking any human feelings. This separation happens because the middle class, whose function is to stabilise and balance society, has become extinct for many reasons, one of them being the mad increase in prices. Regrettably, it seems that Tawfik's novel is becoming all too real, with the instability that Egypt is suffering from today. "How can I help my mother get better, when the prices of medicines keep on rising every day?" asks Ahmed, a man in his thirties, who sells vegetables in Nasr City, northeastern Cairo. Ahmed has just had a quarrel with one of his regular clients, because he's had to raise his prices yet again. The woman tells him that she will pay the same as she paid yesterday, but he refuses. "It's not my fault. I think we should ask the President. I'm an ordinary citizen like anyone and I need my mother to get better. Prices are high now and I can't be an angel in a devil's world," continues Ahmed. At the start of the year, people noticed another serious price increase, that extended to vital goods like foodstuffs and medicines. According to a recent report issued by the Trade Chambers Union, the price of flour increased by 33 per cent last month and poultry by 15 per cent. The report states that the poultry sellers and traders blame the increase on the increase in the prices of fodder. Beans like fuul (broad beans – a popular meal for Egyptians) have increased from LE9 to LE10 per kilo, while one kilo of sugar has increased from LE5 to LE6. The prices of vegetables like onions, garlic and tomatoes have also gone up. As for medicines, the report states that the prices of many of them have increased, according to a decision taken by the Ministry of Health, because the US dollar is getting a lot stronger against the Egyptian pound, affecting the prices of the imported raw materials used in certain medicines. A group of experts predicts that, in 2013, investments in Egypt will drop, while the devaluation of the Egyptian pound will continue and inflation will increase, leading to a rise in prices of both commodities and services. It was a panel of faculty members at the American University in Cairo, who discussed the future of the Egyptian economy at a roundtable discussion last month and made these ominous predictions. The discussion, entitled ‘Egypt's Economy: Predictions for 2013', featured Galal Amin, Professor Emeritus of Economics; Ahmed Kamaly, Associate Professor of Economics; Samer Atallah, Assistant Professor of Economics; and Manal Abdel-Baqi, Assistant Professor of Economics. AUC alumnus Khaled Ezz el-Arab, a Cairo-based correspondent for the BBC Arabic channel, moderated the discussion. Kamaly predicted that, if the political situation remains the same in the coming year, the pound will continue its slide, hitting LE 7 to the US dollar, while economic growth will slip below 2.5 per cent. “The economic crisis will therefore get worse for Egyptians and the country will witness more poverty," he warned, adding that in 2011 and 2012, the investment rate in Egypt was 16 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), while in the first quarter of 2013, it plunged to 11 per cent. In the meantime, direct foreign investments amounted to approximately $13 billion in 2007-2008, dropping to $2 billion in 2011 to 2012, and to only $180 million in the first quarter of 2013. “Investments should comprise 20 to 25 per cent of GDP, in order for the country to achieve sustainable development and a high growth rate," Kamaly explained. In the absence of a clear vision on wages and salaries, the cost of living will carry on increasing, while there will be more protests and sit-ins in the coming period; all of this is very dangerous for the whole of society.
