Yesterday's referendum is not a battle between Islamists and civil forces to vote for or against the constitution. This referendum, being held in unprecedented circumstances, is a life or death battle for Islamists – and for Egypt. Taking into consideration the fact that the majority of Egyptian voters are Muslims, a ‘No' in the referendum would mean that they have decided to abandon the Islamists' god. This of course does not mean that Egypt's Muslims would convert to a different faith. Rather, a ‘No' would mean that the Egyptian Muslims have consciously decided to preserve their own time-honoured vision of Islam and its teachings. A ‘No' would also mean that the seat of power will be powerfully shaken under President Mohamed Morsi, who will have two bitter choices. Firstly, the elected President might have to accept the poisoned chalice, shedding the Islamists' cloak and mitre, jumping into the river and swimming to the other side, where his adversaries (his former supporters in the presidential elections) are camping. This choice would help Egypt survive the tragic transitional period, especially if the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) rallied behind their crestfallen President in the face of the demonised Salafists and other extremists. The second choice would be catastrophic, especially if the elected President refused to take a dip in the seasonally cold weather, which seizes Egypt every December and January. If the President opted for the second choice, his organisation in particular and Islamists in general would be ostracised by society. However, filled with chauvinism and xenophobia, the Islamists would consider a ‘No' in the referendum as a personal and intolerably humiliating defeat ‘for Islam'. They would also regard a ‘No' as an unpardonable insult to the Prophet Mohamed's Sharia (Islamic Law). Remembering that the three main churches in Egypt withdrew their representatives from the Constituent Assembly, Islamists would undoubtedly accuse Egypt's Copts of taking a substantial part in this conspiracy. Suspecting prematurely that the tide of the referendum could turn against them, Islamists are claiming that wealthy businesspeople loyal to ex-president Hosni Mubarak have spent billions of Egyptian pounds to undermine the Islamic Sharia. Mubarak's lobbyists have also been accused of campaigning to damage the image of President Morsi, portraying him as a lame duck. There are unsubstantial claims that huge sums of money have been spent in recent weeks by Mubarak's lobbyists on mass demonstrations and on anti-Islamist media to tarnish Morsi and his alleged surrender to his organisation's decisions. Morsi's advisers foolishly betrayed him when they released a new tax law, which came as a terrible shock to the low-income and poor categories. Realising the nightmarish impact the new law had on the Egyptians, President Morsi was woken up late at night the same day to freeze it. Apparently trying to fend off slurs on the Church's integrity and neutrality in the ongoing battle, Pope Tawadros II of the Coptic Orthodox Church emotionally urged his flock to exercise their right of citizenship and take part in the yesterday's referendum. The head of the Orthodox Church also told the Copts that they were free to vote for or against the constitution. But, as is their wont, the Islamists prematurely turned a deaf ear to the papal assurances. Past experience should substantiate fears that, when Islamists are cornered, they switch off their ‘religious persuasiveness and polarisation mechanisms' and swiftly unleash the dagger. That is why a ‘No' in the referendum would give rise to a new, vicious cycle of violence on a larger scale than over the past two years. On the other hand, a ‘Yes' would augur well for the President, the Islamists and the nation. A ‘Yes' would constitute a big victory for the Islamists. They would be satisfied that their ‘Islam' is built on strong foundations and that their voice would reverberate powerfully beyond the country's borders. A ‘Yes' would convince Islamist radicals and extremists to ‘temporarily' switch off their hostile and belligerent feelings towards their opponents; they would calm the beast inside them. Democratic forces (the liberals, political parties, youth movements and NGOs) will definitely accept the result of the referendum. They will decide to continue their protests peacefully, so as not to intimidate the tiger lying in ambush nearby. Egypt will enjoy stability. A ‘Yes' would mean that President Mohamed Morsi would easily win a second term in office. But taking into consideration the nation's economic hardships, Morsi would find it very difficult to exploit the state of stability to improve his image in the eyes of ordinary citizens. A ‘Yes' would also mean that the MB and Islamists would easily secure a majority in the Egyptian Parliament.
