LONDON - The global economy will labour against a dismal tide from recession-hit Europe for the rest of this year, but 2013 should bring better growth, according to Reuters polls of hundreds of economists worldwide. While few expected 2012 would be anything other than a difficult year for the world economy, there was at least hope a resilient United States and fast-growing emerging markets would keep it moving in the right direction. Those hopes now looks misplaced. The U.S. shows clear signs of slowing and Asia's exporting economies have been hurt by slumping demand from Europe, where the euro zone is likely back in recession. Still, there is cautious optimism big Asian economies like China will start to recover by the end of this year, dragging the world towards better growth in 2013. The global economy will grow around 3.2 percent in 2012 and 3.7 percent next year, the poll showed, a slight downgrade from April's poll and slower than the International Monetary Fund's reading of 3.9 percent for 2011. Gerard Lyons, chief economist at Standard Chartered in London, said it was still very much a tale of two worlds. "In the West the fundamentals are still not very good, confidence is fragile, and the policy cupboard is relatively bare," he said. "In contrast across the emerging world, the fundamentals are mixed, confidence is a lot more resilient, and very importantly, the policy cupboard is quite full." "The policy cupboard in the emerging world, particularly China, will play a key role in how things pan out this year." Lyons pointed out the risk of a new external shock, like a sudden rise in oil prices, leaves fragile major rich world economies in a precarious position. Forecasters chopped their outlook for the U.S. economy for a second month in a row, and now give a 50-50 chance the Federal Reserve will embark on a third round of money printing to try to spur growth. "The US still faces a steady, not a spectacular, recovery. America faces a fiscal cliff, a regulatory mountain and a jobs depression. It's not a great topography, but there is growth," said Lyons. Indeed, the poll showed the U.S. economy growing 2.0 percent in 2012 - a lot better than the 0.4 percent decline foreseen by economists in the euro zone. Conversely, Japan's economy, the world's third largest, is expected to outperform most of its developed nation peers this year thanks to solid domestic demand, but analysts have slashed forecasts for factory output.
