A few days ago, two of the opposition leaders in Iran vanished, either kidnapped or taken hostage by the regime. Mir Hussein Mosavi and Mehdi Karobi and their wives were taken from their homes without an arrest warrant, while their children weren't even informed about what happened to their parents. Mosavi and Karobi, both former presidential candidates, disputed the 2009 election results and organised massive demonstrations. They have remained the strongest opposition figures in Iran since then. The clashes between protesters and militia loyal to the Supreme Leader in 2009 left several people dead and many more injured, while a lot of them are now behind bars, serving long sentences. Mosavi and Karobi have been isolated and their activities limited, but they remain critical of the regime. Almost a fortnight ago, they asked the Interior Ministry for permission to hold a peaceful demonstration in support of the people of Egypt and Yemen, but this permission wasn't granted. Surprisingly, many people in the big cities like Tehran and Shiraz showed up for the demonstration, chanting, “Mubarak, Bin Ali, and now it's Sayeed Ali's turn!” They meant by this that now is the time for the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni to resign after 22 years of totalitarian rule. Events in Egypt and Yemen have encouraged the Iranians to ask the Supreme Leader to step down as well. While Libyans grapple with a crazed dictator like Gaddafi, a maniac who has ordered his mercenaries and his militia to brutally shoot civilians, the Iranian regime is beginning to worry about its own future. Unarmed Libyans are on the verge of ending 42 years of tyranny and this is making the Iranian leadership think hard. What would happen if the Iranian people decided to confront the militia and plainclothes, who are loyal to a regime which pays them well? The Iranian leader and the Libyan one are both against America and most Western countries, which they blame for any demonstrations in their countries. These two nations have no ties with the free world and human rights there are alien to their rulers. Unlike the rulers in Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain, Colonel Gaddafi and Ayatollah Khamenei are happy to kill thousands of protesters in order to remain in power. Despite all his savage, heavily armed soldiers and mercenaries, Gaddafi is struggling to remain in power, so what are the rulers of Iran and their loyal militia thinking? This explains why Mosavi and Karobi disappeared a few days ago, because the regime knows well that any movement in Iran needs organisers and leaders. Taking Mosavi and Karobi and their wives hostage might buy the regime time, but it won't appease the people, who are unhappy about their life, the economy, dictatorship and censorship. The two leaders could only have been snatched from their homes on direct orders from the Supreme Leader, who surely feels threatened by these men. In the recent demonstrations in Iran, no-one has been calling for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to go, but just Khamenei. Ahmadinejad is aware of this and doesn't want to get involved in the clash between the opposition and the Supreme leader. In his most recent live TV interview, Ahmadinejad refused to call the protesters, agitators. The President knows what's going on and he is therefore steering clear of a situation he is powerless to do anything about. It's hard to say if Iran is the next place that's going to have a revolution, but locking up the opposition leaders increases the chances of this.
