While I heartily congratulate the Egyptian people on achieving the impossible, I'm also a realist. There are many aspects to this revolution that may have negative implications for the entire region. Looking beyond the current euphoria, following the ousting of an out-of-touch leader and his corrupt capitalist cronies, I fear a rough road lies ahead. Let's move beyond the romanticism. It is one thing for people to successfully overthrow a government, but often they are no better off. Castro's Cuba is one example where a dictator was overthrown only to be replaced by another, while the 1979 Iranian Revolution, that sent the Shah packing, began as a secular uprising but was later hijacked by an ayatollah in exile. I suspect that many Cubans and Iranians long to turn back the clock. I hope the day doesn't come when Egyptians say the same. Egypt is still celebrating, but I fear that not everyone understands the pitfalls ahead. The nation is beset by strikes. The economy is said to be losing $300 million daily and, according to some reports, the capital flying out of the country is running into billions. Egyptians may dream that the billions alleged to have been systematically milked from the country and deposited abroad will return, but that's far easier said than done. No country on Earth can prosper when it is being run on people power; even a corner shop needs a manager. As of now, the revolutionaries are holding their military rulers hostage, instead of giving the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces time to do what it has undertaken to do. They have warned that, if their demands are not met by a deadline of their making, they will bring Egypt to a standstill. Such threats can go one of two ways. Either a loose coalition of inexperienced youth organisations holding the Sword of Damocles will become the de facto rulers, or the military will lose patience and impose a strict crackdown that could result in a bloodbath. No group should hold a country's leadership to ransom. Now that the ‘people power' genie is out of the bottle, can any future leader stuff it back inside? Without effective authority, Egypt will become irrevocably destabilised. Weakening the mother of the Arab world could be part of a neo-conservative conspiracy to enable Israel to get back the oil and gas-rich Sinai. Iraq was destroyed by lies. Sudan has been split in two. Is Egypt next on the list, followed by the Arab heartlands of Yemen, Algeria, Morocco, Syria, Saudi Arabia and certain Gulf countries, such as Bahrain, where Shi'ites are attempting to ride on the back of Egypt's revolution? The thinking is that oil-rich Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Co-operation Council countries, where citizens enjoy a good standard of living, are less vulnerable to the domino effect, but they are not immune to troublemakers. I'm a great admirer of the UAE's hybrid federal system of governance, allowing each of the seven emirates autonomy while respecting people's traditional allegiances to their respective ruler. It works seamlessly as it is. However, there are Arab states that do need to modernise, allowing their people a greater say and listening to their just grievances. Dictatorial dinosaurs have no place in today's world. It is generally believed that Egypt's revolution was spontaneous. But, as Wael Ghonim and his associates in the April 6 movement have confirmed, it was long planned, using Eastern European tactics they had carefully studied. Wael seems overwhelmed by his celebrity status. He says all he wants to do is return to his job. The clamouring agenda-driven satellite channels should let him do just that and quit whipping up emotions to attract viewers. I believe the intentions of these youngsters were honest. But I can't help suspecting that they have naïvely allowed themselves to be manipulated by foreign powers, keen to see the region thrown into disarray. Tehran has strongly backed the revolution which it has wrongly characterised as an ‘Islamic revolution', while Washington is cheering it on, even as three troop-filled US warships are moored off Alexandria and Israel has placed its military on high alert. The biggest question is what will happen next on Egypt's political front. I'm all for democratic principles, but it is unrealistic to expect a Western-style democracy to emerge overnight in a country that has never experienced it and where the military has been all powerful for almost 60 years. Egypt requires a firm hand at the helm until such time as democratic values can be absorbed into its culture. Any democratic system hurriedly crafted now will be a sham. Egypt should postpone parliamentary elections and concentrate on electing a secular, progressive president with a mandate to form a government that should include charismatic popular figures, capable of beating back the Muslim Brotherhood, who have announced their intention of becoming a political party. Worse, Iran is building up its strength to become the region's most powerful player. Tehran is already gloating over its success in certain areas. Should the Arab nations implode like a house of cards due to the Tunisian-Egyptian contagion, the winners will be Tehran, Tel Aviv and Washington, whose Middle-Eastern influence thrives on the principle of ‘divide and rule'. If the Middle East weren't a coveted location, due to its natural resources, or weren't such a hotbed of competing sectarian interests, Iranian spies, CIA spooks and Mossad agents, I might be less troubled. Our leaders must co-ordinate and act decisively to stem the whirlwind before it consumes us. Unless we become masters of our own destiny soon, the malevolent elements, burning to become our masters, will prevail. It's ironic that while people in city squares are calling for freedom, we have never been this close to being enslaved.
