Emaar Misr, El Sewedy Education sign MoU to establish Knowledge Hub Universities in New Zayed    Egypt to invest EGP3.5bln into Cairo 4th metro line construction during FY2020/21    Leather products sales in Egypt see 25% increase during Eid al-Adha    Chelsea winger Pedro undergoes surgery for shoulder injury    African Champions League final will be played on Oct. 16-17, CAF says    Australian club that gave Bolt trial face uncertain future    WHO says China team interviewed Wuhan scientists over Coronavirus origins    Magnitude 5.7 earthquake hits southeast Turkey: Observatory    Crisis-weary Lebanon braces for Hariri tribunal verdict    African activists fight violence against women one law at a time    Nigerian airline sacks pilots, cuts pay over virus hit    Lekela is directing "most" of its investments into Egypt renewable energy sector    Napoli confirm Insigne injury ahead of Barcelona clash    Kuwait emir's health shows 'significant improvement': PM    Egypt's single-day new Covid-19 cases count continues to drop    Egypt attracts 32% of total FDIs in the Arab region with in 5 years    Record temperatures, pending deals inflame Iraq's power woes    Centamin earnings jump on strong gold prices, higher Egypt mine output    Art Alert: Egyptian singer and Sufi chanter Ali El-Helbawy to perform in Alexandria    Egypt says Turkish survey in Mediterranean a violation of sovereign rights    167 new coronavirus cases, 31 deaths recorded in Egypt on Sunday    Kuwait to review suspension of flights from Egypt – ministry    Egypt's Sisi congratulates UAE on its first Arab nuclear power plant    Egypt invites Tesla's founder to visit Giza Pyramids after controversial tweets    Sisi: Egypt favours negotiations over a military solution to resolve Nile dam crisis: Al-Sisi    Death of young actor fuels debate on nepotism in Bollywood    Moroccan Houda Abouz break through in rap scene dominated by men    Egypt rejects unilateralism compromising right to Nile water, Sisi tells South African counterpart    No room to delay Egyptian Premier League games – EFA's board member    Egypt's National Elections Authority released on Friday a tutorial video for Egyptians for how to vote in the upcoming senate elections due to coronavirus pandemic    Egypt's President Sisi ratifies extending state of emergency for 3 months    Egypt's Sisi extends state of emergency for three months    Egypt Cup games to resume after Premier League finishes: EFA    The Facebook Preacher's Search for Fame, and Egypt's Economy    Arafa Holding reports $144,000 COVID-19-related losses in April    Egypt's efforts in Libya to activate free will of Libyan people: Al-Sisi    Egypt calls on UNSC to address oil spill risks off Yemen coast    Egypt economically strong in face of COVID-19, reforms ongoing: International Cooperation Minister    Hyksos campaigns were internal takeover, not foreign invaders: study    Reports over Ethiopia filling mega-dam    COVID-19 affects Egypt sporting clubs    COVID-19 will soon turn to seasonal like swine flu: Presidential Health Advisor    ‘Egypt's Support' coalition convenes to discuss its Senate election list    Robbery attempt leads to discovery of Ptolemaic monuments in Qena    Flouting international guidance, Ethiopia unilaterally starts filling its Nile dam    Google ‘translate' ancient Egyptian hieroglyphs    Zaha speaks out after online racial abuse    Farwell to 74-year old Egyptian military production minister El-Assar    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.





IIF expects world Brent oil prices to average $65/b in 2019, $62/b in 2020
"We expect growth in US crude oil production to decelerate from 1.6m bpd in 2018 to 1.3m bpd in 2019, 0.9m bpd in 2020," says IIF
Published in Daily News Egypt on 13 - 08 - 2019

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) expects that the Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, to average $65 per barrel ($65/b) in 2019 and $62/b in 2020. Brent crude oil prices averaged $65.5/b so far this year.
“We see global liquid fuels inventories rising by 0.15m barrels per day (bpd) in 2019 and 0.25m bpd in 2020. The lower forecast for inventory builds reflects lower expected crude oil production in OPEC+, in light of the July agreement between the 14 members of OPEC and a group of 10 major non-OPEC producers led by Russia to extend the oil production cut agreement through March 2020,” the IIF explained.
It is common practice among oil price forecasters to avoid modeling crisis entirely since the timing, likelihood, and potential impact of political and economic crises on supply and demand for oil are difficult or even impossible to quantify.
Rather, given the shortcomings of using econometric or statistical techniques, most institutions, including the IMF, the World Bank, and the EIA, simply rely on futures markets' forecast prices, which are highly volatile. In contrast, the IIF bring together futures prices, it`s judgment of political and economic prospects (particularly crude oil supply by OPEC), and simple regression techniques to estimate global demand for oil. As of 7 August, oil futures contracts indicated that Brent prices will average $61.6/b in 2019 and $56/b in 2020.
The IIF mentioned that the US shale industry is facing the challenge of maintaining output growth amid cuts in capital expenditure, noting that the surge in production in the past three years has led to rising costs, as drillers are constrained by the equipment to address emerging bottlenecks in the industry.
“We expect growth in US crude oil production to decelerate from 1.6m bpd in 2018 to 1.3m bpd in 2019 and 0.9m bpd in 2020,” the IIF forecasts.
“We see OPEC's crude oil production declining by 2.1m bpd in 2019, due to strong compliance with the OPEC+ supply cuts and sharp declines in Venezuela and Iran in the context of US sanctions. In 2020, OPEC's production may flatten,” the IIF mentioned.
“Saudi Arabia has cut its production to slightly less than 10m bpd in recent months, from a peak of 10.6m bpd in October 2018. We expect Saudi oil production to decline from 10.33m bpd in 2018 to 9.95m bpd in 2019, and to remain flat in 2020. Iraq's compliance with the OPEC+ agreement remains weak. Libya's production may decline amid ongoing civil conflict,” it stated.
“OPEC's crude oil production may increase in 2020, if Venezuela undergoes regime change, and if Iran and the US agree to renegotiate the nuclear deal,” the IIF added.
Concerning the non-OPEC countries, the IIF said that the growth in crude oil production in other non-OPEC countries is likely to accelerate in 2020.
“Output from offshore projects in Brazil and Norway, and easing of production curtailment policies in Canada, could produce an additional several hundred thousand barrels a day of crude oil in 2020. As a result, non-OPEC supply (including the US) is likely to increase by1.6m bpd in 2019 and 1.8m bpd in 2020,” the IIF pointed out.


Clic here to read the story from its source.