Egypt, S.Arabia step up trade ties through coordination council talks    Egypt reviews progress on $200m World Bank-funded waste management hub    Egypt urges Israel to accept Gaza deal amid intensifying fighting    SCZONE showcases investment opportunities to eight Japanese companies    Egypt, ADIB explore strategic partnership in digital healthcare, investment    SCZONE, Tokyo Metropolitan Government sign MoU on green hydrogen cooperation    Egypt welcomes international efforts for peace in Ukraine    Al-Sisi, Macron reaffirm strategic partnership, coordinate on Gaza crisis    Contact Reports Strong 1H-2025 on Financing, Insurance Gains    Egypt, India's BDR Group in talks to establish biologics, cancer drug facility    AUC graduates first cohort of film industry business certificate    Egyptian pound down vs. US dollar at Monday's close – CBE    Egypt's FM, Palestinian PM visit Rafah crossing to review Gaza aid    Egypt prepares unified stance ahead of COP30 in Brazil    Egypt recovers collection of ancient artefacts from Netherlands    Egypt harvests 315,000 cubic metres of rainwater in Sinai as part of flash flood protection measures    Egypt, Namibia explore closer pharmaceutical cooperation    Fitch Ratings: ASEAN Islamic finance set to surpass $1t by 2026-end    Renowned Egyptian novelist Sonallah Ibrahim dies at 88    Egyptian, Ugandan Presidents open business forum to boost trade    Al-Sisi says any party thinking Egypt will neglect water rights is 'completely mistaken'    Egypt's Sisi warns against unilateral Nile measures, reaffirms Egypt's water security stance    Egypt's Sisi, Uganda's Museveni discuss boosting ties    Egypt, Huawei explore healthcare digital transformation cooperation    Egypt's Sisi, Sudan's Idris discuss strategic ties, stability    Egypt to inaugurate Grand Egyptian Museum on 1 November    Greco-Roman rock-cut tombs unearthed in Egypt's Aswan    Egypt reveals heritage e-training portal    Sisi launches new support initiative for families of war, terrorism victims    Egypt expands e-ticketing to 110 heritage sites, adds self-service kiosks at Saqqara    Palm Hills Squash Open debuts with 48 international stars, $250,000 prize pool    On Sport to broadcast Pan Arab Golf Championship for Juniors and Ladies in Egypt    Golf Festival in Cairo to mark Arab Golf Federation's 50th anniversary    Germany among EU's priciest labour markets – official data    Paris Olympic gold '24 medals hit record value    A minute of silence for Egyptian sports    Russia says it's in sync with US, China, Pakistan on Taliban    It's a bit frustrating to draw at home: Real Madrid keeper after Villarreal game    Shoukry reviews with Guterres Egypt's efforts to achieve SDGs, promote human rights    Sudan says countries must cooperate on vaccines    Johnson & Johnson: Second shot boosts antibodies and protection against COVID-19    Egypt to tax bloggers, YouTubers    Egypt's FM asserts importance of stability in Libya, holding elections as scheduled    We mustn't lose touch: Muller after Bayern win in Bundesliga    Egypt records 36 new deaths from Covid-19, highest since mid June    Egypt sells $3 bln US-dollar dominated eurobonds    Gamal Hanafy's ceramic exhibition at Gezira Arts Centre is a must go    Italian Institute Director Davide Scalmani presents activities of the Cairo Institute for ITALIANA.IT platform    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.



North Africa turmoil shines rosy light on rest of continent
Published in Daily News Egypt on 11 - 03 - 2011

JOHANNESBURG: Political turmoil sweeping through North Africa is likely to mean more investment scrutiny for countries across the continent, although many south of the Sahara are likely to pass the test comfortably.
With as many as 20 national votes likely in 2011 — the most in any calendar year since Africa started to shake off the colonial shackles half a century ago — political turbulence was always going to rank high on the agenda.
The increasingly bloody crisis since Ivory Coast's November election set an ominous tone, but the unforeseen uprisings that have rocked authoritarian regimes in the north have cast the rest of the continent in a different light.
As Zambian President Rupiah Banda pointed out at the Reuters Africa Investment Summit in Johannesburg this week, many sub-Saharan states went through the wrenching transition from autocracy to pluralism a generation ago.
"Our opposition leaders are calling on people to go on to the streets and remove this government, forgetting that in 1991 the Zambian people removed the one party state. They moved toward multi-party democracy," said Banda, who faces an election before September.
"We have gone through that period long before."
Ivory Coast aside — and excepting the likes of Zimbabwe and the irregularities that are commonplace in many more functional African democracies — other ballots in the region have not gone too badly.
Election tests
In Uganda, the shilling hit a record low against the dollar amid fears of violence or worse after a February 18 presidential election, but it passed off largely without incident.
A big test looms in April for Nigeria, the continent's most populous nation and a democratic stripling having only ended military rule a decade ago, but a relatively orderly set of January ruling party primaries point to calm rather than chaos.
"Suddenly the rest of Africa looks kind of good," said Clifford Sacks, the Africa head of emerging market investment bank Renaissance Capital.
"Sub-Saharan Africa is now becoming the least risky oil-producing geographic region in Africa, and Nigeria now, on a relative basis, becomes one of the most stable major oil producers in the continent."
Speed of egypt recovery key
However, this relative revaluation of sub-Saharan political risk looks unlikely to translate into an immediate shift in investment flows, especially if Egypt recovers its poise sooner rather than later.
"All of these events should be making investors understand that South Africa is an oasis of stability and may be a good investment destination — as with a number of other countries in the rest of Africa," said John Coulter, the Johannesburg-based head of Africa for US investment bank JP Morgan.
"Kenya went through a political crisis but their economy is still viable and businesses are still functioning," he said. "But the translation to investment dollars is incremental not dramatic. People don't immediately just shift."
However, in the longer term if the energy and vigor of Egypt's mobile phone revolutionaries wanes or meets military and official obduracy, a more permanent gulf in investor attitudes could open between the continent's north and fast-growing south.
"The general sense was that North Africa was always slightly behind the curve in terms of political change," said John Green, head of global business development for Cape Town-based Investec Asset Management, which oversees $4 billion in Africa outside South Africa.
"If Egypt plays out negatively, you could have a segregation of 'I want to think about sub-Saharan Africa and north Africa differently.'"


Clic here to read the story from its source.