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Nuclear Iran between war and acceptance
Ian Bremmer
Published in
Daily News Egypt
on 17 - 04 - 2007
Despite his bellicose rhetoric, US President George W. Bush would very much like to avoid a choice between air strikes on
Iranian
nuclear sites and accepting a nuclear
Iran
. For the moment, administration officials are hoping that "targeted sanctions aimed directly at
Iran
's leadership will compel a compromise. The United Nations Security Council's recent decision to tighten existing sanctions on
Iran
by prohibiting dealings with 15 individuals and 13 organizations aims at precisely that. But, while some within the US government argue that similar sanctions induced
North Korea
to compromise on its nuclear program, there are several reasons why the same strategy is unlikely to work with
Iran
. First and foremost, targeted sanctions did not, in fact, really work with
North Korea
. The freeze on $25 million of the leadership's assets held at Banco Delta Asia in Macau has certainly irritated the
North Koreans
. But the asset freeze did not prevent Kim Jong-Il from ordering a ballistic missile test last July or an underground nuclear test in October. Instead,
North Korea
's willingness to resume negotiations partly reflects the Americans' decision to stop insisting on the "complete, verifiable, irreversible dismantlement of
North Korea
's nuclear program as a pre-condition for talks on normalizing relations. The Bush administration has accepted that
North Korea
is a nuclear power and that outsiders can do little about it, so the
United States
has shifted its diplomatic stance from the hard-line Japanese approach to the more flexible and stability-oriented Chinese position. That shift is understandable. Given its simultaneous military commitments in
Iraq
and
Afghanistan
, together with
North Korea
's demonstrated nuclear capability, the Bush administration can't credibly threaten
Pyongyang
with force. Sanctions have rattled the
North Korean
leadership, but not nearly enough to compel it to surrender fully the nuclear program, which is the regime's ultimate guarantee of security. At the same time, the
North Koreans
' willingness to make a deal also reflects
China
's decision to put its foot down.
China
remains the only foreign power with any real leverage over Kim's government. Exasperated by
Pyongyang
's refusal to ease international tensions, Chinese officials have made clear their refusal to protect and subsidize
North Korea
's elite if it continues to push the US toward confrontation. The Chinese can't force Kim to disarm fully, but they can persuade him to negotiate with a now more flexible
Washington
. As a result, the US and
North Korea
have agreed a deal that differs from the Clinton-era "Agreed Framework, mainly because
North Korea
now has a track record as both a deal breaker and a nuclear weapons state. Having returned to the bargaining table in a position of strength,
North Korea
now hopes to secure a compromise that frees up the leadership's assets and brings new benefits that help buttress the regime a little longer. As long as the Chinese talk tough and the US remains willing to negotiate, the agreement may hold. But neither diplomatic stance is likely to continue indefinitely. In any case, none of this will help the Bush administration with
Iran
. No outside actor has the leverage with
Iran
that
China
has with
North Korea
; and even if the US offered
Iran
a more conciliatory approach, the Democratic-led Congress isn't likely to follow suit. Buffeted by criticism that their position on the war in
Iraq
is incoherent and that they are soft on security threats, the Democrats appear determined to ratchet up pressure on
Iran
, favoring much broader sanctions than the Bush administration has proposed. For example, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Tom Lantos has introduced legislation that would extend the extra-territorial reach of US law to foreign governments' export credit agencies, financial institutions, insurers, underwriters, and guarantors. It would bar foreign subsidiaries of American companies from investing more than $20 million in
Iran
's energy sector, and would eliminate the president's authority to waive these penalties. It would also designate
Iran
's Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist group and impose further limits on exports to the country's civil aviation industry. Moreover, Republicans are getting in on the act. Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen has introduced legislation that would require US government pension funds, private pension funds, and mutual funds sold or distributed in the US to divest from companies that invest more than $20 million in
Iran
. Finally, just as
Iran
doesn't have to face a
China
- an outside player with considerable domestic influence -
North Korea
doesn't have to face an
Israel
: a neighbor that believes its security could depend on an act of military pre-emption.
Israel
does not want to take on
Iran
without US support and will maintain pressure on both the American Congress and the president to threaten
Iran
with every means at its disposal. The appeal of targeted sanctions against
Iran
is obvious: they are meant to help the administration avoid military action - which could create more problems than it solves. They allow the White House to argue that it means to undermine
Iran
's leadership, not its people. They are also much more likely to win international support than sanctions that would remove
Iran
's oil and gas supplies from the international marketplace. But the chances are slim that sanctions - targeted or otherwise - can undermine the consensus within
Iran
in favor of the nuclear program. As in
North Korea
, a nuclear capability constitutes a powerful symbol of the country's sovereignty and international clout - and would be the ultimate guarantee that America could never do there what it has done in
Iraq
. Sanctions give lawmakers and diplomats plenty to talk about. But unless a sea-change occurs in
Iranian
domestic politics, they will merely postpone the difficult (and increasingly likely) choice between military action and accepting a nuclear
Iran
. Ian Bremmeris president of Eurasia Group, the global political risk consultancy, and author of "The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall. THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with Project Syndicate © (www.project-syndicate.org).
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