SANA'A: While the international community congratulates itself on Yemen “success story” clamoring high and low that countries in the region facing mounting popular opposition should align themselves on Yemen's power-transfer agreement avoiding the pitfalls of war, the country is furthering its descent into chaos. Although it is true that an agreement was negotiated and signed by Yemen warring political factions, putting on some levels an end to bloodshed, it was done in spite of the people and on many levels against people's will. Moreover it failed to address the real issues which fueled the Revolution in the first place. When Yemenis took to the streets last year, it is social, economic, judiciary and political reforms they demanded. If their protests morphed into a fully pledged Revolution it is because the regime at the time reverted to its usual weapons of choice, repression and oppression. Yemenis are at hearts peace-loving respectful and kind folks, behind their often tribal demeanor and unruly attires, lie hearts of gold and an unshakable sense of honor. The shift which the country witnessed from a popular uprising to a political opposition and to be more precise the rise of one family against another, al-Ahmar versus Saleh, is what truly put the nation at risk. At every corner, behind every speech and statement made in the press for the past year one will find standing in the shadows, either Sheikh Hameed al-Ahmar, brother to powerful Sheikh Sadeeq al-Ahmar, the leader of the Hasheed confederation of tribes or President Ali Abdullah Saleh. All other figures are mere nucleons of this power-play, pawns in the check game those 2 men started off years ago, when one tribesman dared refute his Sheikh's authority, preferring to carve his own destiny to assert his family's power over the land. Behind the Revolution, behind the political ambitions and the needs of a people for a democratic Republic, we have 2 giants fighting for power; the rest it seems is just noise, distractions for those who fail to see through the maze. The International community which saw in the election of President Abdu Rabbo Mansour Hadi a victory of democracy over nepotism failed once again to assess that Yemen real fight will take place with the restructuring of the army. If President Saleh, one of the savviest and cunning politicians of his time so easily bowed to pressure and inked the GCC brokered initiative while keeping a smile on his face, it is because the man knew he was positioning himself and his family into the winning position. By letting go of the presidency and assuring that none of his foes would ever pursue him in a court of law, Saleh shielded himself, his family and loyalists politically and personally. With that in place he was then left free to move to the offensive. Yemen's true power lies within its armed forces, as a military man hardened to battles, Saleh knew that. He knew as well that the Americans would once again stood by him as he became over the years a strategic ally to their fight against terrorism. Ever since the presidential elections and the demands for swift military reforms, the U.S. government has been pushing for Saleh's boys to stay exactly where they were, Ahmed Ali Saleh, the eldest son at the Head of the Republican Guards and the Special Forces, Yehia Mohamed Saleh, the nephew, at the Head of the Central Security Forces and Tarek Mohamed Saleh another nephew was moved from its position at the head of the presidential guards to the command of the Republican Guards 3rd Brigade. Firmly in control of the country's elite forces, the air force through President Saleh's half-brother, General al-Ahmar and National Security through Ammar Mohamed Saleh, yet another nephew, Ali Abdullah Saleh holds indeed the reins of power. Al-Ahmars, Salehs' nemesis are very aware of the dangers posed by this military hegemony, knowing that if left unchecked and unchallenged they will fall, stricken by the regime's wrath. Al-Ahmar went too far in his attack against Saleh for any party to be able to back down now. Yemenis know that with every coming new day, the shadow of war is edging ever closer, left wondering who will draw the first bullet. Tensions are on an all-time high with both factions recruiting and arming loyalists with frenzy. Interestingly none of the international Media are reporting this “reality”, preferring to concentrate on the rosy picture foreign powers are depicting. Truth is Yemen is a volcano about to erupt. Only on Monday evening, al-Ahmar troops moved closer to the Republican Guards' main base in Sana'a, the capital, with residents saying that their men were all geared up for war; only the intervention of U.S. ambassador to Yemen, Gerard Feierstein prevented a violent conflict which certainly would have triggered an open war. But for how long will the Saudi and Americans delay the inevitable? With a deep seeded claim over Yemen none of the 2 families will ever agree to go onto exile and allow the other to prevail. What then? BM ShortURL: http://goo.gl/yg6MC Tags: Analysis, Revolution, Yemen Section: Human Rights, International, Latest News, Op-ed, Yemen
