NFL Week 8 Picks

So… the crushing Bears defeat is meaning that these picks may become more and more … ummm… lazily done, especially if the Bulls turn out to be the best team of all time (I’m writing this on the heels of their demolition of the Spurs at home on opening night)
Houston (-3.5) over BILLS: This was actually a really hard game to pick. The Texans have a couple wins in a row by beating up on teams who can’t really stop the pass, but the Bills actually can do that (they can’t stop the run but whatever). I mean, offensively the Bills are a mess and actually this year they’ve been pretty bad at home, 1-2 ATS and their fan base might be wanting a change of the guard. I expect this game to be close but the fact that Houston just has more weapons than the Bills do is the reason I’m picking them, I’m not particularly confident though.
Dolphins (+4) over NYJETS: Man the Dolphins have gotten unlucky (well, and badly coached) this year. They’re by far the best 2-4 team in the NFL and could pretty easily be 4-2 with wins over the colts and saints (both undefeated, obviously) at this point. This matchup appears to favor them again, the last time they played the Jets couldn’t do a thing about the Dolphins rushing attack and there’s no real reason to think that will change. What’s funny is that Rex Ryan was basically whining about how the Dolphins won on “gimmicks” but I’m not that sure the wildcat is exactly a gimmick. I mean, Rex Ryan’s TWO FAKE PUNTS in that game (that were pivotal) were definitely gimmicks because the dolphins were totally fooled. The wildcat is basically an acknowledgement that you are going to run the football and it’s up to the defense to stop it. I mean, I think the Jets were lucky to get within four in that game and… presumably the same thing will happen in this one. Add to this that Leon Washington is possibly out for his career and… I mean… the Dolphins are obviously capable of losing games they should win, but those were to Brees + Manning. Sanchez has been horrible, the dolphins are the better team, this spread makes no sense.
COLTS (-11) over 49ers: Ugh, I’m not thrilled about this spread and I want to love the 49ers. But they can’t stop the pass, the Colts have been pretty good this year and they’re at home… Alex Smith is going up against a much better defense than he faced last week… I have a hard time picking the 49ers to cover much of anything against good teams with good passing attacks at this point..
LIONS (-4) over Rams: I mean, the Lions have played a reasonably difficult schedule thus far and have even beaten a team that the rams lost by 2 to (the redskins, who are awful). They’re coming off a bye and the rams are in such total disarray (Spagnuolo = terrible?) that picking the rams to cover or win straight up on the road is something I”ll need to see to believe it. This seems like one of the easier picks of the week, I thought this spread would be more like -9 in order to scare a few more people into picking the rams.
Seahawks (+9.5) over DALLAS: I really don’t like Dallas, I don’t think they’re good and I think the Seahawks’ defense is a little bit frisky even though totupu is out. I didn’t watch the cowboys destroy the falcons last week because I was too busy watching a different beatdown on CBS, but that was surprising to me. If that spread were more like the 4.5 it should be I’d be taking dallas, but the seahawks have proven that they can stop the run and the cowboys’ quarterback loves to throw stupid picks, I’d guess this game will be close and I wouldn’t be floored if the seahawks even pulled it out.
BEARS (-13) over Browns: This spread is really ridiculous, the Browns almost beat the teams that RAPED the Bears last week. I’m not looking forward to this game at all. At least I won’t have to see Frank Omiyale’s ass anymore.
Broncos (+3.5) over RAVENS: So, the Ravens’ offense and the Broncos’ offenses are pretty similar, they both pass quite a bit but enjoy using the run and short passes so as not to rely on their qbs too much. I like the Ravens run game a little bit more than I think the Broncos’ and I still don’t trust Kyle Orton on the road against a terrible pass defense. Why is that you ask? Well, in all honesty there’s no good reason, and this spread should without question be favoring the 6-0 ATS Broncos (wow). Kyle Orton has yet to throw a pick to a defensive player this season and the Ravens’ pass defense is horrendous. Actually I’m changing this pick, originally I’d written Ravens but I think it has to be Broncos. The Ravens just can’t defend the pass and… that’s got to be the difference in the game particularly with the spread the way it is.
Giants (pk) over EAGLES: wow, this spread is absurd. Just because the Eagles beat the redskins by 10 (ugh) and the Giants lost to the Cards doesn’t mean that the eagles are all of a sudden better than the giants. The Giants still have pretty good lines and the Eagles just aren’t that good a football team, this looks like EXACTLY the time in the season where Reid + McNabb get questioned all over the Philly media.
Raiders (+17) over CHARGERS: Wow, this game is the game that gets the biggest spread of the year? In real life this is a 3-3 team against a 2-5 team. ATS would you like to guess who has the better record? That’s right, the 3-4 ATS team is superior to the 2-4 ATS team. About matchups? The Raiders can stop the pass, they always can stop the pass, and this exact game @Oakland was 24-20 in the opening week!!!! How in God’s name is it all of a sudden 17?!?! I know vegas got slaughtered last week, but it was because they made things like the Colts less than a 2 TD spread against a terrible terrible team. The raiders aren’t all that bad, I’d be tempted to take them straight up with a moneyline of +500 or better.
Jags (+3) over TENNESSEE: Wow, what the fuck is up with Tennessee lines this year?!? I don’t get it at all. The colts one is still the most ridiculous line of the year, but this one is close. The Jags already beat them by 20 points this season, why won’t they do that again? Vince Young is starting this week and if he’s not been able to replace Collins without the Owner’s intervention then… I mean… why won’t this be just another slaughter? I feel like parlaying raiders + jags is obvious, and I’d consider parlaying those two moneylines for like a +1400 windfall.
Panthers (+10) over CARDINALS: the number one pass defense in the NFL (Panthers) against the number one rush defense in the NFL (Cards)! That’s fun, especially because both offenses are SO one dimensional in exactly that way. I LOVE the under (o/u 41). I’m picking the panthers because I think both teams are pretty flawed, the panthers’ can pass the football when they’re not turning it over (which is always) and that spread is too high for this kind of matchup of bad teams. I mean, the cardinals are a similar level of badness to last year where they would roll against anyone who couldn’t stop the pass but if you COULD stop the pass then the cardinals were in a LOT of trouble (remember, they won only three game outside of their division last season).
Viqueens (+3) over PACKERS: Ugh, can I root for a tornado?
SAINTS (-10) over Falcons: Right, I see no reason to stop picking the saints to cover these spreads until Vegas makes them scary enough. They’ve been consistently the best team in the NFL and why nobody’s caught on to this I have no idea. I genuinely believe that if the patriots had had as much success as this through 7 weeks they’d be considered the best team of all time. IN FACT the patriots had LESS success than this 2 years ago and WERE considered the best team of all time by week 8 or so. The Saints are on pace to break their scoring record and ESPN has no interest in talking about it. Ridiculous. Either way, Vegas follows, remember the spreads during that Patriots season? The Saints’ spreads are STILL basically half what the patriots were getting those weeks. Have fun gambling.
BM