So, on the season I believe I’m 36-26. Last week I couldn’t believe many of the spreads and that was because Vegas’ spreads were ridiculous. Tampa, for instance, was basically a lock to cover even if they couldn’t win the game. This week’s spreads seem ALMOST as ridiculous, though the games themselves this week are so God awful that it doesn’t really even matter all that much. Viqueens (-10) over RAMS: My pick of the rams to be good preseason has at this point been proven false, and in a big way. Honestly I have to blame coaching at least to some extent but… I mean… at this point they just are an awful football team in almost every way. Their defense is slightly better than last season (19th overall) but their offense is so terrible and their quarterback play as well that… it’s hard to pick them to cover anything at this point. The packers won in STL by 19 and I expect the viqueens to be able to do just about the same thing. The Rams are 24th in the NFL against the run so it might be on ok week to start Adrian Peterson in fantasy. I know many of you are shocked by my audacity to suggest starting the best running back in the nfl against a bad running back, but that’s just the kind of craziness you can expect out of my predictions this week. RAVENS (-8.5) over Bengals: This is actually a spread that I think was higher than necessary for the ravens given the 4-0 records of both teams (I’d be willing to accept an argument that the Bengals actually lost last week, but I won’t really accept the same argument for the ravens. That win has GOT to be what simmons would term a “moral defeat†for the patriots). As it is, the Ravens are a pretty good team at most things. Their 6th in passing, 5th in rushing, 3rd in points and yards per game, and the best run defense in the NFL. The way to beat them is to attack the fuck out of their awful secondary. Luckily the bengals’ passing game is atrocious and Cedric Benson is a fumbler. I don’t see any way the Bengals really get going unless all of a sudden they revert to 2005 passing attack form. Since that seems unlikely, I basically have to pick the ravens to cover. PANTHERS (-3.5) over Redskins: Well, the “stats†would basically say the redskins are the smart pick in this game. They’ve a better rushing attack to go against the panther’s 32nd ranked rush defense and they’ve a better defense as well. On the other hand both teams are awful and the Panthers are at home. So far they’ve lost at home to Philly and on the road at both dallas and Atlanta. None of those are really horrendous losses so maybe they’re more victims of their schedule than being actually bad. The redskins have played 3 terrible football teams and have beaten one of them and lost to two of them… it’s tougher to know what that means. The redskins should get quite a few yards on the ground this week but really at the end of the day I think the panthers SHOULD be talented enough to win this football game. If not then it’s really time for both Fox and Delhomme to be fired. The Carolina fans will be funny if Delhomme throws a first half pick. DETROIT (+11) over Steelers: Wow, that’s a really high spread. I think I guessed that the spread would be 4.5. Detroit has been perfectly good this year. They’ve lost @Chicago (like the steelers), to the viqueens (in a winnable game) at home, to the saints (obvious loss), and they’ve beaten the redskins at home. Can they beat the steelers at home? Quite possibly, especially if they decide to start their best qb (Duante). The Steelers are 0-2 on the road this season (@Cinci and @Chicago) with a combined 27 points. It wouldn’t shock me if they won this game (particularly given detroit’s secondary) but Detroit has been close with every team they’ve played until the 3rd or 4th quarters, they’re probably good enough to challenge mediocre teams at home if not win outright. I dunno, I think the spread is ridiculous and that the lions are only being put in the category of “terrible nfl teams†because of their season last year. Cowboys (-8) over CHIEFS: Ugh. What a terrible pick/game. Picking Tony Romo to cover an 8 point spread in Arrowhead? Really? Both of these teams are terrible. The only difference is really that the Cowboys can run the football. The Chiefs have yet to prove that they can do anything this year and in large part it’s probably their awful coach’s fault. I expect this game to be close going into the 3rd quarter at which point the cowboys slowly pull away while the Chiefs try to stay around but keep fucking up. These teams are both terrible, this is only a SLIGHTLY worse game than panthers-skins. Luckily both of the quarterbacks are REALLY highly paid so I bet the quarterback play in this game will be stellar. GIANTS (-14.5) over Raiders: Wow that’s a high spread. I really wanted to pick the raiders, the giants only beat the chiefs by 11 and the raiders won @KC. So… by that logic the raiders would be able to cover against the giants – they DO play decent defense. The problem really is just that the raiders are SUCH a mess right now with Jamarcus and their coach and everything that I have a really hard time picking the number 32 ranked offense in the NFL to beat the number 1 ranked defense in the NFL. Or to cover even. TOP will probably just end up destroying the raiders and the second half could be a romp. Another interesting thing about the giants is they just came back from three straight road games. This is their first home game since opening day against Washington so I think that presumably their performance @Arrowhead in a third straight road game was as indicative of that as of anything else. They’ve proven thus far an ability to blow out bad teams so I don’t see why that wouldn’t carry over to this. The Raiders have lost by more than 15 both times they’ve been blown out this season. PHILADELPHIA (-15) over Tampa Bay – Wow, this is the fourth road game in a row for the Bucs! That’s horrible, especially for a team in total disarray. I really don’t rate Philadelphia that highly but this is a “journeyman-to-be†on the road against a pretty good defense in the team’s fourth straight road game and with all the pressure of being bad mounting. Meanwhile the Eagles have had an entire bye to prepare for this game and… I mean… I generally believe in the mantra that if you can’t see the team winning straight up, don’t pick them (unless the spread is really that bad, I might pick TBay +26 or something) and Tbay is just so terrible. I do love josh Johnson though. BILLS (-6) over Browns: Holy Crap! The o/u for this game is 40.5 despite the fact that it features the 32nd and 27th best defenses in the NFL. That’s completely ridiculous, I will go ahead and take the over thank you very much. I’m picking the Bills to win here because the browns are slightly worse at both offense and defense and it’s in Buffalo. I also trust T. Edwards more than either of the Browns QBs and the Bills running backs are better as well. If this were in Cleveland and the spread were the same I’d have second thoughts and strongly consider picking the Browns but it’s not so… I have a tough time seeing them winning especially since Buffalo crowds really aren’t even all that terrible. Buffalo plus the over is a pretty nice parlay… 49ERS (-2.5) over Falcons: A friend of mine guessed this spread would be 49ers -11. So that’s funny because that’s actually not even close to what the spread is. I will be interested in this game for the sake of the Bears but it’s true that that spread is a bit much. The Falcons have the 30th best defense in the NFL after playing the dolphins and panthers at home and getting blown out @New England. That’s pretty bad. The 49ers have won @Arizona, trounced seattle at home, trounced the rams at home, and beaten the Viqueens on the road (in that they were the better team by far in that game and would win if the teams played that matchup again, so for the purposes of analyzing their play so far this year, they won that game). That’s two trouncings at home and good play overall, they’re at home now against a pretty mediocre team. I don’t see any way they lose this game. Texans (+5.5) over CARDINALS: Well, both teams pass all the time and never run. The Texans have the 9th ranked pass defense in the NFL, the cardinals are 30th. The Cardinals’ defense is good at stopping the run and the Texans’ is not, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Cardinals never run the football. The cards are coming off a bye so that could in theory change something since they’re at home, but I kind of think that the Texans are the better team here. The Texans aren’t stellar but they have a pretty potent offense (as do the cardinals) with a semi-decent pass defense (the cards do not have this). There are good WRs in this game, incidentally. I like the Texans to win straight up but the fact that I’m getting 5.5 points just makes the pick that much easier. DENVER (+3.5) over New England: Well, the Patriots are really just a bad football team this year. So far they’ve beaten the Bills by 1 at home (ugh), lost @Jets, beaten the falcons at home (in a game closer than the score indicates), and lost to the Ravens at home last week in an admittedly decent, though disgusting, performance. I think they’re pretty mediocre. Most importantly matchup-wise, however, is that the Broncos are able to run (4th in the NFL) on bad run defenses like the Patriots. They’re also able to stop passing attacks (3rd in the NFL) like the Patriots. So… that should really be about it, especially since it’s in Denver and everything. I’m pretty confident the Broncos are not a great football team but their defense is really much improved and with that offensive line their offense is always dangerous even with Orton at the helm. I could see this game getting ugly for the Patriots… Indianapolis (-3.5) over TITANS: The weirdest line of the week. What happens when the (4-0) best passing attack in football plays the (0-4) 32nd pass defense? I mean… I honestly can’t for the life of me figure out this line. I think Tennessee may very well be able to run a bit on the Colts, but they can’t pass so they’ll be running against a stacked line and they won’t be able to stop the colts from scoring on them all game long. A titans win (or cover) would have to be considered a huge upset, I don’t get this spread at all… Jets (-1.5) over DOLPHINS: This game was surprisingly hard to pick. A dolphins victory wouldn’t shock me at all, they’re at home and they can run on an average run defense in all likelihood. Neither team can pass the football so that probably won’t be too important… I think the Jets are a better football team all around and since the spread is SO close to pickem I feel like I have to pick the Jets to win but really it’s not that obvious a game despite the records of the teams. Either way, by the time one gets to this game they should be so wealthy from the previous games that they can afford a bit of a risky wager. BM
