So for the season I’m 26-22, which could be worse though surprisingly IS worse than the Sportsguy, who is 34-14. Regardless, we’ll see how things wear on… Bengals (-5.5) over BROWNS: So the browns have yet to lose a game by less than 14 points, including an opening week loss by 14 to the Viqueens. It’s hard to say that the Bengals are a GREAT team but I doubt they’re much worse than the Viqueens. I mean, I know I don’t buy the Bengals but they’ve proven that they’re at least mediocre defensively and can “make some plays†offensively and God knows that’s more than this Brown’s team can do… BEARS (-10) over Lions: So… I’m hardly drinking Bears’ koolaid here, but they have played good defense and have had arguably the best quarterback play in the NFL after approximately 10:00 EST on the SNF opener (5 TDs, 1 INT, 77% completion percentage). The Lions have actually been mediocre both offensively and defensively (well, except against the pass – 30th in the NFL though that includes a game against the Saints) and really don’t deserve this spread, if they had won 7 games last season instead of 0 then this spread would be much more like Bears -5.5 (which is what it should be because last year’s record isn’t really relevant to this year’s). Regardless, the thing is that Stafford on the road against a team that knows it has talent it hasn’t lived up to (Forte doing nothing, Cutler beginning to come into his own, a defense that has gotten mauled in every first quarter this season, etc.) is scary, particularly since Stafford has looked less than impressive thus far (it’s possible he’s a rookie). More worrying, the Lions’ offensive line has looked bad too, giving up lots of pressure and not getting the running game going at all. Tillman matches up nicely against physical receivers so… I’d guess this is the first Bears’ game that doesn’t come down to a last minute drive. Regardless, the spread is ridiculous since both of these teams have played well enough to be either 3-0 or 0-3 (well, maybe the Lions loss to the Saints was legitimate, but they could easily have won that Viqueens game). Raiders (+9) over TEXANS: So the Raiders have (as always) a good pass defense and nothing else. The Texans have (as always) a good passing attack and nothing else, and the 32nd rush defense in the nfl to boot. Gun-to-my-head I pick the raiders to win straight up here but Russell is so horrendously horrendous that I’m happy Vegas gave me a ridiculously undeserved spread to cover for them. The Texans are way worse than they should be but they don’t match up well with the Raiders. If you can run the football and stop the pass then you SHOULD be able to beat the Texans, which is exactly why Tennessee lost despite being better in almost every phase of the game than this team (though I’m surprised they’re THAT bad at defending the pass). I’d like to have a Raiders’ RB on my fantasy team this week. Tampa (+7) over REDSKINS: So the bucs are really bad and it’s pretty ridiculous to pick them ATS against anybody and any spread. On the other hand the Redskins are also really bad (which is funny because Skins’ truthers were pretty critical of me in my preseason preview) and for them to be favored by 7 over anyone in the NFL is even more ridiculous (especially the week after they lose to the Lions). I’m hoping Josh Johnson throws for 300 yards (Stafford threw for 241 last week though the Skins’ pass defense isn’t all that bad) because that would be fun. I dunno… I wonder if the loser of this game has their coach fired? This might be the worst game in the NFL this entire season. Good thing it’s on Baltimore Comcast instead of real football. Giants (-9) over CHIEFS: So, what have the chiefs done to deserve this spread? I mean, the Giants have proven that they can blow out bad football teams that are badly coached, and the chiefs have certainly proven that that’s what they are. The Gaints currently have the best pass defense in the NFL (playing Tampa Bay helped) and the Chiefs aren’t good at anything other than having their coach have mental breakdowns on the sideline. I mean… The Giants should be able to put up points all day on that defense and the Chiefs already have the 28th passing attack in football. I mean… I’d take the Giants -20 in this game, what a horrible spread by Vegas. Baltimore Ravens (+2) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: speaking of which, what on earth is going on with this spread. Even espn.com has the ravens number 1 in its power rankings (patriots an undeserved 7th) and… I mean… the Pats really could have lost to the Falcons last week despite the scoreline. The Jets led the way with a blueprint for how to beat the pats (ummm… blitz?) and the Pats defense is so bad that it’s hard to believe that the NFL’s highest scoring offense (you read that correctly) won’t put up a ton of points on them. Again, I’d take the ravens in a WAY harsher spread (say, ravens -5.5?) and the patriots have not been good this year. My dad (a ravens fan) would even argue that the ravens have the better qb in this matchup and… I mean… I just don’t see why the Patriots are favored. I could certainly see ways in which they win the game but that doesn’t excuse the ridiculously spread. DOLPHINS (+2) over Bills: So we all know the Dolphins can run the football and the Bills can’t stop the run. The Dolphins are at home. Furthermore the Bills have had trouble passing the football all season but have had some success with Fred Jackson. Going up against the 3rd best defense in the NFL against the run is bad. The Dolphins probably would be favored in this game if they had managed to win the game against the Colts where they had arguably the most lopsided victory of the season except for the fact that they did not actually win the football game. The Bills are really not that bad a football team but somewhat surprisingly they may actually have a worse coach than the Dolphins. The x-factor in this game is obviously how quick Sporano will be to pull the plug on the awful Chad Henne in favor of the fun (but still awful) Thigpen. Hopefully sooner rather than later so the Dolphins can pull it out. SAINTS (-7) over Jets: wow that is a high spread, Vegas REALLY buys the Saints. I’m not sure it’s wholly warranted but I’m picking the Saints to cover anyways. First of all were you aware that the Saints are the second best RUSHING attack in football? I know, I couldn’t believe it either. This is a balanced team that plays tough defense and can do just about anything except stop the pass. Luckily for them the Jets are a team that can do just about anything except pass the football (25th in the NFL) so that bodes well for the Saints. I can’t imagine the Jets will be able to contain that offense entirely (though the Bills did a decent job for a while last week) and I don’t really think that Sanchez will put up a ton of yards on them. Honestly I’m pretty confident that the Saints have been the best team in the NFL so far and I doubt I’ll pick them to lose anytime soon unless they get absurdly high spreads or are playing @Baltimore on October 18th. Rams (+9.5) over SANFRAN: Kyle Boller to the rescue! I predicted he’d be their savior in my preseason preview so here we go! The 49ers have a bad pass defense and the Rams are just awful passing the football. They lost their starting QB and also their top WR (Laurent Robinson) is out for the season. This sounds like a recipe for success! Furthermore the 49ers are coming off a horrendous loss last week to the viqueens, just despicable. Honestly I can’t say anything other than smart money should probably be on the 49ers to take care of business at home. I’m essentially making this pick on the basis that I think the rams have not played up to their potential thus far and that their defense (currently 25th and 27th against the run and pass) has more talent than that and that Boller will be able to lead an effective passing attack against a team that isn’t very good against the pass, as last week’s 40 year old showed. BRONCOS (+3) over Cowboys: I think this might be the most ridiculous spread of the week. This is a good team at home against a bad team (with a shaky quarterback) on the road in a pretty tough place to play. I mean, why on Earth the Cowboys are favored in this game I’ve no clue. The coaching matchup is presumably a wash and… I mean… what a just ridiculous ridiculous (but kind to gamblers) line. But let’s go ahead and break this down just a little. One of these two teams has the top rated defense in the NFL (7th and 2nd against the pass and run respectively, which incidentally is shocking given their defense last season) and that same team also has arguably the best offensive line in football (4th rushing, 15th passing with 3 sacks allowed). This team is at home. The other team is, critically, 17th in the NFL against the run (4.7 ypc, also 17th) and tied for worst in the NFL at putting pressure on the QB (3 sacks). This second team, we’ll call them “Road Team Romo,†does in fact have an explosive offense but is turnover prone, especially against good defenses on the road. I mean, that’s enough I suppose. I think the spread should be Broncos -6.5 and I’d probably take the Broncos, this spread is just insulting but at least it should be lucrative. Incidentally is it too early to take this opportunity to point out that I’ve been screaming at television sets for YEARS about how awful Tony Romo is at quarterback? Yes it is too early? Ok, fine. But I’ll accept vindication whenever you’re ready. Steelers (-6.5) over CHARGERS: I actually think these teams are really evenly matched, the chargers can pass the football and the steelers have a good defense, though obviously not as good without Polamalu. The Chargers pass defense really isn’t bad (8th against the pass) and up until now the Steelers have done nothing but pass the football (somewhat successfully). Either way, the steelers could easily be 0-3 or 3-0 at this point and I can’t imagine that they won’t start going back to pounding the football, which should work against the Chargers. I do kind of think anything could happen in this game but at the end of the day I trust the Steelers to be decent more than I trust the Chargers. JAGUARS (+3) over Titans: I’m not convinced about this and I think the game is pretty 50-50 but I just think the spread is ridiculous so I’m picking the Jags, who SHOULD be favored by about three. The teams are really equal, both have terrible pass defense but neither can really pass the ball anyways and both are pretty decent in the run game. It’s @Jacksonville so they may well be able to pull something out offensively because I think in general both teams will stall quite a bit unless they can get their offense in a rhythm. Still, the Jaguars have won football games and the Titans have lost 3 winnable games against relatively mediocre opponents. I think Haynesworth was a big loss for them (that’s the kind of hard-hitting analysis you come to this blog for!). VIQUEENS (-3) over Packers: In all honesty I think both these teams are bad. The Packers got smoked in week 1 by the Bears (and won by virtue of Cutler’s 4 INTs and Mannelly’s ridiculous fake punt. I mean, if that game is played over the Bears win 9/10). The Viqueens DO have a good running back and a pretty good defensive line as well. That’s really more than the Packers can say and it’s in MN and there’s probably some story-line or other that the fans/media will be interested in and that should all only help the home team. Also obviously with any viqueens opponent you check whether they can stop the run and the Packers are 23rd in the NFL at stopping the run. That’s enough for me.
