CAIRO: It is a scary time for Egypt. Both the liberals – those who began the protest movement on January 25 – and the conservative Salafists have taken to the Egyptian capital in what should be a sign of unity. Promises of not using religious slogans were made by the conservative Islamists, but that was quickly shoved aside in their attempts to display a banner promoting the idea that all Egyptians “support Sharia.” Undoubtedly, there are probably a few Iranians watching events unfold in Egypt Thursday night telling themselves “watch out Egypt, it has happened before.” Rewind to 1979 for a moment. Iranian young people, mainly leftists, liberals and forward-thinkers took to the streets after decades of corruption, violence and dictatorship at the hands of the Shah. They toppled the leader through street protests and all looked well. But shortly thereafter, approximately 6 months later, the other Iranians, who for the most part had sat out the revolution, became outliers in the country. They started to demand their voice be heard and in came Mr. Khomeini, who dramatically changed the country – for the worst, as we now understand. The world initially praised the young, liberal Iranians who rose up against corruption and tyranny. But those revolutionaries, in the end, failed to maintain the momentum of the uprising, mainly because they didn't listen to their fellow citizens. A semblance of “we know best” pervaded their movement, which ultimately fractured the country and allowed for the extremist Islamic state to take form. Back to today. Egypt. Cairo. July 28. The Salafists are coming. Their stereotypical beards, the veiled women, the rigid interpretation of Islam. Yes, they are converging on Cairo's Tahrir Square. Already, scuffles have broken out. By Friday late at night, thousands, possibly tens of thousands had arrived in the central square, made famous for the blood that the masses spilled in their struggle to oust former President Hosni Mubarak. They have, in a sense, mobilized on holy ground. The unfortunate truth is that this has happened before, and if we are not careful, it will happen again. It could be happening right now. The Egyptian protesters, who returned to Tahrir on July 8, have done such a poor PR job that much of the country views them as pariahs attempting to disrupt the country and foment their “suspicious plans.” The military has done an excellent job of shifting sides in gathering anti-Tahrir protest support and raising antagonism against them. Now, the Salafists, who have been voicing their concerns over the state of post-revolution Egypt, have finally come out of the woodwork in huge numbers. This shows their ability to bring people out and that they are force to be reckoned with. The liberals across the country, who for the past three weeks have done little to bolster their public support – in fact, have done more to lose it than anything else – should be scared. While there is no specific leader that has emerged for this very large segment of Egyptian society who feel disenfranchised as a result of being left out of the political discussion, they are large, garnering the vast majority of support in the rural areas. Throughout Friday we will witness what could very well be the beginning of a second revolution. But that revolution may not bring democratic change. Instead it may be the first “shot” fired in the future Islamic Republic of Egypt. All it takes is a spark, one that anger and frustration could very well bring about. While all this may not happen, the fact that the Egyptian left has cornered itself through its poor judgments and failure to listen to the people, it is disappointing. Let us not forget that the protesters believe they left too early following Mubarak's departure. They are most likely correct in their arguments, but the military and others have leveled a campaign against them that has been difficult to overcome. The reality is that it is no longer about the ideology of the revolution, it has become political, a game played well by the military and the Islamists, who have years of experience, while the true activists of the revolution are too new and are thinking in ideas, and positive ones at that. This is eerily similar, although in an opposite manner, to what Gamal Abdel Nasser did in the pre-1952 coup, when he garnered the support of the Islamists – notably the Muslim Brotherhood – only to turn against them when they wanted a place in that New Egypt. Today, the military is playing a dangerous game standing against protesters and allowing the politicized Islam to flex their muscles. Egyptians may not be “extremists” but neither were the vast majority of Iranians in 1979 (they still aren't). But in a country where people listen when you praise God in daily conversation and follow the whims of the so-called religious, do not discount the religious sentiment of the millions who would rather support the Salafists than the liberals, who are spoken to in a language they understand. The January 25 Revolution may well have been to the left, so let us hope they solve their issues and open dialogue, or we face a “July 29 Revolution” that most would rather not be witness to. BM
