Titans (+2.5) over JETS: So the first thing that stands out is that the Titans are 0-2 with two very defensible losses. HOWEVER, did you know they’re dead last in the NFL in pass defense despite having played the Steelers and Texans. I mean, I would have bet good money that the dead last team would have been one of the Saints’ opponents. The second thing, of course, is that the Jets have gone 2-0 by running all over the football field and so they’ll beat the Titans by passing. I watched the Steelers game (who incidentally SHOULD be 0-2 instead of the Titans) and the fact that “Ben†was so bad all game probably means that “Dirty†will have problems, particularly after the Titans have had a couple of weeks to adjust to not having “Albert†on the line anymore. The Jets’ defense has obviously been the story of their season so far and I’d be surprised if the Chris Johnson can run for 200 yards again, but until “Dirty†becomes an NFL quarterback (next season seems like something to hope for?) then I’ll take the Jets to lose most games against good run defenses. RAMS (+6.5) over Packers: Here we go! This always happens, every year. I make an “upset team†pick for the season and they totally crap the bed in week one. Well, and week two. But THIS week is where the rams start playing football! (ugh) I think I’ll stick with this for one more week – they’re at home against a team that isn’t playing that well. The Packers are badly coached and should also be 0-2. Here’s a little “wtf†feature for you: Two weeks into the season after playing the Bears’ (horrendous) secondary and the Bengals’ (bad) secondary where is the Packers’ pass offense ranked? The answer is 25th (wow) and leading the NFL in sacks given up. I honestly think this game might be uglier than the Rams-Redskins game last week (which the rams also covered). Two bad teams but I have hope that one of them will be good. Oh hey remember when it was a lock that the Packers were the best team in the NFC two weeks ago? That’s right ESPN, shut the fuck up. LIONS (+6) over Redskins: Speaking of bad teams playing each other… The redskins couldn’t cover at home against the rams, no way in hell they cover this week. The Lions are actually really not a bad team, they could have won both weeks despite playing the BTITNFL (best team in the NFL, that didn’t really work did it? I’ll never do that again, sorry) in week one (NOSAINTS). Fourth quarters are, unfortunately, part of NFL football games, but I’m not convinced the Redskins have learnt that yet either. I’d love to chat more about this game, for instance the stellar coaching and qb matchups or the “which defensive line is more out of shape†matchups but instead I’ll move onto real football. Falcons (+4) over PATRIOTS: Now this is more like it! I love the Patriots, they’re so terrible every year but still manage to win football games. Did you know they’re the 6th rated pass defense in the NFL? That’s despite the fact that they have the second highest QB rating (against) in the NFL. That’s right, “Dirty†and “Trent†have dominated them but somehow managed to not put up points, or even that many yards. I wonder what happens when a good qb/coach comes to play them? I’ll take the over, thanks. The Falcons, incidentally, have been remarkably similar. They’re defense has also been quite average but has managed to give up 27 points combined to two offenses that at least hoped to be good this season (dolphins + panthers). It’s possible the Pats offense (in NE, the Falcons first road game) will be better than those two but we’ll see how it goes, I actually think these two teams are pretty similar so I’m picking the team with the better qb (hee hee just kidding patriots’ fans! No, seriously calm down. Relax, take a deep breath… there you go) and the kinder odds to cover. Oh, also the better run game. TEXANS (-3.5) over Jaguars: What? How is this the spread? I guessed it would be -8.5 and I STILL was planning on taking the Texans. What have the Jags done to deserve this? What am I missing? Clearly something, I guess we’ll find out on Sunday, Vegas usually isn’t in the habit of giving away free money. 49ers (+6.5) over VIQUEENS: Speaking of Vegas giving away free money, anytime the Viqueens have faced a good run defense in the past 3-4 years and are FAVORED by a touchdown then you have done well betting the farm against them ATS. The 49ers have the greatest LB of all time (Butkus not included since he’s pre-SB) as their head coach and the third best run defense in the NFL (Ravens + Titans). Oh, and one of the Williams’ is injured for the Viqueens? Shaun Hill has played admirably thus far in a reasonably efficient offense? Child Please, kiss the baby. RAVENS (-13) over Browns: Ugh, I hate high spreads like this. But the Ravens’ defense is bad this year, especially their line. Their front 7 is ok but they can’t get pressure or cover to save their lives. So the 28th passing attack in the NFL (on the road) is a nice matchup for them. COMBINE that with a defense that can’t stop the run and a highscoring offense (the Ravens’ offense is highscoring now) and… I mean… you have what appears to be a blowout. Brady Quinn would be nice on your fantasy team this week, but other than that I think this may well be a bad game for the browns. Giants (-6.5) over TBAY: I may just pick TBay to lose every week. Their defense sucks since it was built to play cover 2 and was changed suddenly and without reason (since it was even good in the cover 2. Is their coach good?) and their offense was changed last week, I believe. Incidentally their offense has put up yards but not many points (is their coach good?) and they’re third in the NFL in penalties (San Diego is first, are they well-coached? Then there’s cinci, GB, and New England. Isn’t that fun?). Regardless, the Giants are actually a good football team, they were last year as well, and this spread is pretty kind to them. Saints (-6) at BILLS: Wow, well there’s no way you’re picking the Bills unless you think they win outright. The Saints, if they win, are winning by a TD or two (presumably) so… that would be interesting. One statistic I think might be interesting to you if you were considering wagering on this game would be “pass defense.†The Bills, after having played (a somewhat anemic) Patriots and Buccaneers are 31st in the NFL in that statistic. Oh, and the Saints are good defensively too this season after spent all offseason working towards that goal. Ummm… I suppose maybe a really good coach would be able to gameplan for the Saints since you know they’re passing but oh wait Dick Jauron is still in Buffalo, somehow. SAINTS + Over until it fails? Bears (-2) over SEAHAWKS: Well Seneca Wallace is probably starting and it took Jim Mora 4 minutes to read off the injury report on Wednesday. Meanwhile the Bears’ defense is looking well-coached for the first time in quite a while (Jesus I just wish we had some fucking Personnel to match) and the offense is almost certainly getting into gear week-by-week (Forte has been abysmal, Cutler likewise, etc. etc.). If the young WRs start learning how to play football (and ideally safeties? Please?) this might be the first team under Lovie to EVER be better in the second half of the season than the first. The Seahawks are a bad team (see my preseason preview) that has tons of injury woes right now and doesn’t even look well-coached. The only reason to pick them in this game is because of Cutler being horrendous and homefield advantage, both of which are possible but through two weeks there just isn’t any doubt which of these two teams has been better. Steelers (-4) over BENGALS: So I think this is my espn.com moment. I mean, basically I just refuse to believe the Bengals are good despite the fact that they’re 2-0 against two less-than-horrendous football teams. Cedric Benson is bad at football, I know this. I’ve watched him be bad SO many times that … I mean… I know he is bad. Their passing attack was bad last year and is bad this year. Their defense is bad (see B. Stokely). The Steelers are well-coached and will probably be trying to win this game. I mean… I’m really using espn-ish logic where it’s like “well I thought preseason the steelers would be better than the Bengals and then when the season started and it turned out that wasn’t true then… ummmm… it must be that the teams were wrong and I was right!†(see espn.com’s p. rankings. Look at exhibit S. Diego or N. England) Either way, I refuse to believe it and I will absolutely not kiss your offspring, Mr. C.O. Cinco. Miami (+6) over SAN DIEGO: So remember last year when the Chargers were disgusting and filthy and managed to make the playoffs with 8 wins despite how in the previous offseason everyone said they’d be amazing? Well hey whaddayaknow?! Here we are again. Just for fun let’s see how they’ve defended the run so far…. Oh, 24th? How about how the Dolphins have defended the pass? Oh 23rd? These teams are both so badly coached… I mean, how the Dolphins lost last week I have no fucking clue, one of the more inexplicable losses/coaching jobs in recent memory. Hilariously enough though, they’re the better coached team in this matchup! I’ll take them to cover at least. Oh, and with a little dash of the “over†if you please (o/u 44). Broncos (-1.5) over RAIDERS: Ha, did Vegas miss J. Russell’s performance last week? The Broncos have a good offensive line (and thus a good offense, funny how that works) and a surprisingly improved defense (how happy are Broncos fans thus far with this regime? I’m convinced they’re horribly coached but they are, sort of, 2-0). Either way, they just have more talent on the lines and the Raiders are badly coach and badly quarterbacked. I don’t see why the raiders are favored in this game though neither of these teams has been particularly impressive so far despite their records. Colts (+1.5) over CARDINALS: SO the Colts have historically ALWAYS been good at stopping the pass, they’re currently ranked number 1 in the NFL against the pass, and they’re playing a team that does nothing other than pass the football. Ummm… why are they not favored again? I might consider taking Colts -11.5. COWBOYS (-8.5) over Panthers: Did you know the ‘boys have the number one rushing attack in football (through two games, admittedly, but still?)? I’m surprised. Both of these teams have bad rush defenses, well and bad defenses period (the Panthers’ have a highly ranked pass defense but I expect that to drop). In all honesty I think the whole Jake Delhomme thing is just too much for this team, there’s SO much scrutiny on him and on MNF on the road … I mean, I watched too much R. Grossman in my time to think that that sort of thing doesn’t get to a qb. The Cowboys are a talented and badly coached team and the Panthers have enough flaws that if their qb has a total breakdown then they’ll probably lose football games. That’s about it for now, I’m not as convinced with the MNF pick as the vast majority of the other ones… BM
