Dallas (-5.5) over TBAY: What a fun week this is, I don’t think there’re too many games that are obvious though the first game was easy to know who to gamble on. Last season the cowboys won this matchup 13-9, largely because TBay’s offense was just anemic. This year I think both of these teams are huge question marks, they both have lots of talent and both appear to have very iffy coaching. The Bucs fired their offensive coordinator just last week and appear poised for some questionable QB play again. Despite an average-ish offensive line I really have no clue who they’ll do. Defensively they are talented and had a great defense last season, but how well they’ll execute the 3-4 is a pretty big question mark as well. Dallas still has a ton of talent on both sides of the ball but also horrible coaching, honestly I could see either of these teams winning. The thing is that TBay seems to be in such a mess and Raheem Morris has never even been a COORDINATOR, let alone a head coach before. I’ve no clue what that means but it makes it hard to pick him to win his first game ever as head coach, especially with (I assume) a playbook that their offense has had to learn in about a week. Dallas has a lot of weapons and eventually one of them should come through for a 10 point win or so, I’d guess. This game is a little worrying because who in their right mind is putting money on the Bucs to cover at this point? Dolphins (+4) over ATLANTA: All these games are fun. I don’t really love Atlanta this season. I think their defense got worse and it really had no room to do that. Their offense may have improved a bit, but I don’t think their offensive is explosive enough to win by itself, especially against the Dolphins who are showing signs of being somewhat explosive themselves. Both of these teams have great offensive lines and bad defensive lines, though the Dolphins’ linebacking corps is certainly better and their secondary appears to have some talent even if they didn’t play like it last season. Well, mainly their defensive line was bad I suppose but still their pass defense was awful. Obviously against the Falcons all that matters is the ability to stop the run and a fairly good front seven should be able to keep Turner in check just enough to pull this one out. That would be the way I’d analyze this game, though the “x†factor is really whether Matt Ryan has improved significantly from last year, which Falcons fans seem to think he has. If Matt Ryan is suddenly one of the top 3 QBs in football and their running game is that explosive, then all bets may well be off in this game. I think I’d lay my life that this game hits the over (o/u 43.5) but top to bottom the Dolphins appear to be the better team, and may even be the better-coached team for all we know. SAINTS (-13) over Lions: I do actually think the Lions won’t be terrible this season, I predicted them to go 7-9 in my preseason preview for good reason. The problem with them is that their secondary is bad. They have strengths in other areas, but that’s a pretty big problem to have when you’re traveling to New Orleans. Oh, and they have a rookie QB starting on the road despite the fact that he has looked bad so far and has thrown a pick in every single game he’s played in even though he has faced exclusively vanilla defenses this season. On top of this the Saints’ defense has reason to think they’ll be significantly improved over last season. If that’s the case then they’re a genuine SB contender. If their defense reaches its ceiling then presumably they become SB favorites. I doubt that will happen but they DO have some talent back there finally and this is a very nice game for them to see how they play without their starting defensive linemen. I’ll take the over, I believe, but I’ll also take the Saints in a bit of a laugher. I can’t believe the Lions are starting Stafford, what a horrible decision, especially because Duante looked pretty good standing in the pocket in preseason. The SG picked the Lions to cover and I can’t believe he did with Stafford going on the road… HOUSTON (-4) over New York Jets: The Texans were actually 6-2 at home last season, which is the main reason for their semi-run at the end of the season to make people convinced they’ll be awesome this year. Either way, the Texans have a top offense (top 3 last season) and a defense that can get after the QB. The Jets, on the other hand, have a QB that – in rainy games or in hard-hitting games – will be a dirty Sanchez. And he’s on the road in his opening game. I think the Jets may be decent this year (I have them going 10-6) but I also have them struggling at the beginning as they get used to a new defensive scheme and as Sanchez acclimates to not sucking so much. Playing a pretty decent team on the road seems like a bad way for them to open, despite having talent on both sides of the football. The Texans are also talented and when Shaub is healthy are very dangerous. I dunno… this seems like a bit of a no-brainer even though I don’t think the Jets will go the 6-10 that FO predicts them to go. I suppose I could see the Texans winning by only a fg or something like that, but I’d guess they’ll be the better team either way. Broncos (+4.5) over CINCINNATI: Ew what a disgusting game. Two horrible organizations just duking it out. I expect turnovers and penalties and a lot of just ridiculous play. Did you know the line on this has moved 7 points in Cinci’s favor? I mean, I understand what the Broncos have done to deserve that but what has Cinci done to deserve being favored against a good offense? Cinci had the worst ranked offense in the entire NFL last season and is poised to start C. Benson at RB again this year. Their Offensive line is not stellar and their defense is probably bad enough to be gashed by Orton et al, especially since presumably Orton will have all day to throw. I mean, it’s possible that the Broncos are SUCH a mess that they’ll lose this game, but surely the fact that they just have WAY more talent than the Bengals will win out? I have the Broncos going 6-10 and the Bengals going 5-11 this season, I hate both of these teams. What a horrible game for such a great week of football. PANTHERS (+2.5) over the Eagles: oh good, a lock! Those of you who read my preview know that I’m not exactly buying the Eagles as SB contenders. Their defense should really be worse this season and that’s not a good thing when you’re going up against arguably the best offensive line in football. Granted the Panthers’ defense is pretty average but I don’t know that that’s significantly different from the Eagles’ defense. I kind of think the Eagles are a mess and having Vick really won’t help their team come together. I don’t really know what to say, I think the Panthers are more talented than the Eagles at almost every position except Quarterback and they’re also the home team and they’re also the underdog (somehow). I can’t imagine picking the Eagles to cover the spread unless you just hate Delhomme THAT much. Jacksonville (+7) over INDIANNAPOLIS: So for once I’m not even THAT convinced that the colts will lose (I have a habit of picking them to go 0-16 ATS). Last season they lost this matchup @Indy, but really it was because Jeff Saturday was hurt and they lost all of their games without Jeff Saturday (yet somehow managed to get a few games placed in the “W†column in disgraceful fashion). They won the game at Jacksonville by exactly 7, though (obviously) in both contests the Jags were able to run on the Colts fairly easily. This time Bob Sanders is out, who has to be almost as valuable to the Colts as Saturday. A big day from MJD seems almost guaranteed. The Jags’ passing attack is also quite good, Garrard very quietly had an excellent year last season, and I’d expect the jags to put up quite a few points. The Colts may ALSO be able to put up points on a fairly suspect Jacksonville defense, but obviously it will be all through the air. I tend to believe that a team that can run all day will beat a team that can pass all day because of things like wearing out a defense and game-control and I think the Jags offense is more multi-dimensional even if it’s less explosive. My biggest concern is that the Jags are switching to the 3-4 and I don’t think that’s a great idea for them, if their defense gets significantly worse than last season then I suppose they might lose this. But either way the Colts didn’t really beat spreads like this last year, I think they won 2 games all season by double digits, and in both games last year the Jags covered this kind of spread. I’ll take the Jags to cover and I’m not really sure who wins outright, but I’d probably predict the Jags by a fg even there – possibly with special teams playing a factor. I’m interested in how well the Colts will be coached this season. Viqueens (-3.5) over BROWNS: So I know this is a really popular pick because “the Viqueens + Favre are good and the Browns are bad.†I don’t even agree with that, I kind of wouldn’t be shocked if the Browns are better than the Viqueens this season (like, in terms of record). However, they have to match up badly. First of all the Browns couldn’t stop the run last season and there’s no reason to think that they improved that in the offseason. For the past 3 years that’s been the key to picking every single Viqueens game and I don’t see why it’s not again. The Browns can’t run the football anyways and they can’t stop the run and that should be the end of it. I think the Browns’ offensive line is actually decent but with Jamal Lewis rushing their run game is probably not great (I like James Davis). Furthermore, as bad as Favre is, Brandon McDonald is worse and if Favre can be smart enough to attack him then even the passing game might get something going. I think this is just a really nice matchup for a team that won’t have a great season after AP goes down, Childress makes stupid decisions, and Favre leads the NFL in picks again. But in warm weather against a bad team they have to be favored. Chiefs (+13) over RAVENS: Good lord, 13 points?!??!?! The Ravens?!?!?! Hmm…. Actually it turns out I’m an idiot for saying that, the Ravens were in an awful lot of blowouts last season, especially at home against bad teams. Often-times it was their defense that led the blowout, a lot of 100 yard passing days for Flacco despite a 30 point performance for the team. If I’m picking the Chiefs to cover then I have to be convinced that a) the Chiefs defense is good enough to stop the run and b) the Chiefs offense is good enough to pick up a first down or two. That seems like a scary prediction for a team that won 2 games last season and that I’m predicting to go 7-9 this year. But I AM predicting the defensive line to improve for the Chiefs and if that’s the case then they’ll just pound the football (they’re going to be a running football team) and either keep it close or maybe better. I’m not remotely confident in this pick and when the ravens are up by 14 at the end of the first quarter I’m going to feeling pretty fucking stupid. Washington (+6.5) over NYGIANTS: again I’m probably going to very stupid for making this pick. The Giants last season really didn’t have an explosive offense and anytime you could stop the run (say, if you have the best DT in fooball) then you could stop them from putting points on the board. The Redskins DID basically manage to do that both games against the Giants last season, this exact matchup on opening day and the result was 16-7 and @Washington the Giants won 23-7. Both times the Redskins had trouble putting points on the board but not that much trouble slowing down the Giants’ offense, so in picking the Redskins to cover I’m basically predicting they get at least 14 points and lose in the neighborhood of 17-14 (or win in the neighborhood of 21-17). I mean, I suppose in large part I’m guessing that Albert Haynesworth is really good and can make this defense improve significantly, and then I’m hoping that Portis runs like he did at the beginning of last season. If Eli throws a couple of stupid picks maybe this game is close? I’m not thrilled with my pick on this one. Rams (+7.5) over SEAHAWKS: This is pretty funny. I would take the rams -13. I have the rams going 11-5 this season, and I have the seahawks sucking again. I know the seahawks were injured on offense last season and were good at offense before that, but did you know that they were NOT particularly injured on defense and were the 32nd pass defense in the NFL?! It’s true, do the rams know how to pass the football? I LOVE Laurent Robinson in this game for fantasy and I think the Rams are going to absolutely massacre them. I mean, if Spagnuolo can improve the defense at ALL (and they do have talent) then this could well be over quickly. I mean… to me this is a good team playing against a bad team. Everyone whines about the Bears’ weapons, are the Seahawks’ WRs so much better? Is their offensive line anything other than bad? I KNOW their defense is bad. I think the Seahawks are a really bad team and the rams are actually better than average. That’s about it, this is another of my locks. CARDINALS (-6) over San Francisco 49ers: I agonized a bit over this one because I think the Cards will be worse this season and the 49ers will be better, I even think the 49ers might be favorites to win outright @SF. But the thing is that the cards did win this matchup both times last season (including the exact same matchup opening day) and I think there’s every reason to think, especially in week 1, that they’ll be able to put up 30 points or so again. I don’t think that Shaun Hill and a new offensive coordinator can do that in all honesty. I think as the season wears on the 49ers will improve and the Cards will get worse, especially if injuries start to rack up. But for this game the Cards offense is just largely the same offense as last year so… I mean… I have to think they’ll be successful against a team like the niners. A niners victory or cover wouldn’t shock me at all though, and if this were in SF I’d pick them to cover. Bears (+4.5) over PACKERS: Holy God there’s a lot of action on the Packers in this game. Every last one of ESPN.com’s “experts†are picking the Packers to win outright, and this line has moved from 3 to 4.5 in the last few days. I’ve had Packers’ truthers bitching to me on the blog and even my friends are all siding towards the Packers. I mean, not that these are people who are comparing matchups or game tape, but clearly the “trends†are towards the Packers being awesome, including being the SG’s pick to WIN the SB outright (I’d like to take this opportunity to remind people that I have them going 7-9 and finishing last in the division. That’s right, last. I know the Lions are still in the NFC North.). As it is, I actually DO think the Bears match up badly against pass-happy offenses. By week 8 I’ll be picking the Packers to win this game. For now I think this game will go similarly to the Bears’ opening game against the Colts last year (29-13 @Indy) in large part because Tommie Harris will be healthy and wreaking absolute havoc on the defensive line. I expect a really good game from our tackles, quite a few turnovers (I think the Bears have forced a turnover in an NFL leading 25 straight games or something like that) and a bunch of third down conversions that GB couldn’t convert due to pressure. When GB goes no-huddle or runs a two-minute drill I’ll be a little afraid, I think that’s their best bet especially late in the game. But I expect the Bears defense to fly all over the field and really wear themselves and the Packers out in this game. Offensively the Bears will be able to just pound the run all game long with Forte, and even if the Pack CAN pass on us, I’d rather be the team that can run all day than the team that can pass all day. Moreover, the Bears have been gameplanning for this for the entirety of the offseason after last season’s ass-kicking at Lambeau whereas the Packers have apparently been gameplanning for the preseason. I dunno, I’d guess a Bears victory with relative ease but even if the Packers come back after a strong opening by the Bears and make it close, a cover seems awfully likely here for the Bears. I don’t agree with that spread at all and I can’t believe all the money is going to the Pack. Gamblers are stupid. - Paul Williams
