The saga of two Iranian warships aiming to transit the Suez Canal to reach the Mediterranean Sea apparently continues overnight. International news agency reports quote Egyptian officials in the Suez Canal Authority as saying that the two Iranian naval ships “are expected to start their passage through the strategic waterway early Tuesday.” This was reported by Haaretz here. If this transit goes ahead, it will reportedly be “the first voyage of Iranian warships to the Mediterranean Sea in 30 years” – in other words, since the Iranian revolution. Though Egypt's Suez Canal is an international waterway open to all nations, Egyptian authorities could deny transit for reasons of national security, public order, or safety. And, Egypt's Suez Canal Authority can also require 48 hours notice for ships wanting to transit while armed, or if carrying dangerous material (explosives, weapons) — which probably explains the delay over the past thirty hours or so. Iranian television reported on Sunday that the ships had already passed through the Canal, but Canal official said there would be a 48-hour delay. On Monday, the Haaretz report indicated that Canal officials said “the [two Iranian naval] ships, a frigate and a supply vessel, are close to the southern entrance of the canal.” A little later, Israel's freewheeling DebkaFile website reported here that five U.S. warships have been deployed “in recent days”, some at the southern entrance to the Suez Canal, and others along the length of the waterway. In fact, a U.S. fleet has reportedly been gathered near Ismailiya since early February, as large-scale popular protests against Husni Mubarak and his regime continued in cities throughout Egypt. According to DebkaFile, an American aircraft carrier escorted by a missile cruiser and a fast supply ship on Thursday “headed south through the canal. By Friday morning, they were through and taking up position opposite the Kharg cruiser and Alvand missile destroyer … A battle of nerves is therefore underway.” While DebkaFile has repeated its earlier report that “the Kharg was carrying long-range surface missiles for Hizballah”, part of the Haaretz report was much less alarmist, and said that the two Iranian ships “are not thought to be carrying arms shipments for Syria or Hezbollah, as was another Latakia-bound cargo ship stopped by the Israel Navy in November 2009, which turned out to be carrying hundreds of tons of weapons destined for Hezbollah warehouses.” However, the same Haaretz report also stated that “Although the British-built Alvand is the Iranian navy's flagship and is armed with Chinese-made missiles, Israeli military officials were confident yesterday that in the event of a confrontation the Israel Navy could sink it without advance preparation. ‘If the navy were to make a positive identification, it could be sunk almost immediately', one senior official said last night. ‘We're not even dealing with it, because [the Iranians] are only creating a provocation. From the military and marine perspective, the moment the ships enter the Mediterranean, they're entering a trap'.” The DebkaFile report said, in a similar tone, that the position of the U.S. warships “raised the possibility that the moment they venture to sail into the Suez Canal, the two Iranian warships will be boxed in… and called upon the allow their cargoes to be inspected as permitted by the last round of UN sanctions against Iran in the case of suspicious war freights.” Whether it happens before, during or after their passage through the Suez Canal, the Iranian warships can expect to be hailed, intercepted, and inspected. Various options exist. Egyptian authorities, for instance, could carry out the inspections. Earlier interception of Iranian cargo ships in the Mediterranean were apparently carried out by the Maritime Task Force (MTF) assigned to the long-standing UN peacekeeping operation in Lebanon, UNIFIL, when its mandate was expanded to bring to an end Israel's month-long attack on Lebanon that began after a Hizballah attack on a group of Israeli soldiers at the border in mid-July 2006. UNIFIL's MTF — the first maritime component in any UN peacekeeping operation — was commanded for a year – following the Israeli Operation Cast Lead in Gaza, from February 2009 to March 2010 – by the European maritime force, EUROMARFORCE. The EUROMARFORCE website says here that it is “able to carry out naval, air and amphibious operations and its composition depends on the assigned mission”. (It is currently commanded by Portugal.) Meanwhile, both Haaretz and the Jerusalem Post are reporting that if the two Iranian naval ships do go through the Suez Canal, they can expect to pay transit fees amounting to some $290.000 U.S. dollars. BM
