The World Bank (WB) projects Thailand's economy to pick up pace in 2024, driven by robust consumer spending, a gradual recovery in tourism, and a rebound in exports. The WB report projects a GDP growth of 2.4 per cent for 2024, marking an improvement from the 1.9 per cent growth recorded in 2023. However, this forecast reflects a slight downgrade of 0.4 percentage points due to weaker-than-expected export performance and early-year public investment setbacks. Inflation is expected to decrease to 0.7 per cent in 2024, down from 1.3 per cent in the previous year, driven by lower food and energy prices. It is anticipated to rise marginally to 1.1 per cent in 2025. Tourist arrivals are forecasted to surge to 36.1 million in 2024, significantly surpassing the 28.2 million recorded in 2023 and approaching pre-pandemic levels. Total arrivals are projected to reach 41.1 million in 2025, buoyed by the return of Chinese tourists in substantial numbers. Looking ahead, economic growth is anticipated to strengthen further to 2.8 per cent in 2025, supported by robust domestic and international demand, alongside increased government spending. Despite sustainable public debt levels, Thailand faces mounting pressures for social spending and public investments to support its ageing population. Moreover, the report underscores the critical need to empower secondary cities through targeted investments in infrastructure, human capital, and institutional capacity. It advocates for decentralising investment decisions and granting greater fiscal autonomy to these cities to enhance their productivity and competitiveness on a global scale. Attribution: World Bank.
