In 1995, I published a text titled ‘Insightful Reading for a New Social Global Map', which I included in my book, ‘Historical Awareness and the Global Revolution: Civilization Dialogue in a Changing World'. This book was published by Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, second edition, 1995. The text, at the time, was an attempted vision of what the world would be like in the wake of the enormous changes it was undergoing. It is 2015 and the text now a 20 year-old prospect, almost an ancient text in this fast-tracking global era. It is possible that the changes in regional events have bypassed these visions. I thought I should highlight those revelations to be able to judge accuracy and objectivity in light of what has actually happened, as far as political and economic phenomena are concerned. In the old text, we followed the different perceptions surfacing on the intellectual arena, which led to highlighting three main perceptions: The first one is seen from an international viewpoint, where researchers applied a number of methods and used traditional tools to analyze changes occurring in power balance and patterns. Some creative attempts adopted more modern methods and tools derived from the postmodern literary movement, to shed light, for the first time, on national security issues. The second perception stems from cultural analysis. That one focuses on changing worldviews, ethical value trends and communication methods between communities, as well as the interaction between cultures. The third perception emerges from the philosophy of history. The Japanese Nomura Research Institute tried to identify the main features of global society. This institute formed a scientific front called ‘Tokyo Club for Global Studies', which included four unorthodox and famous research centers: the American Brookings Institution, the French Institute for International Relations, the British Chatham House and the German Institute for Economic Research. All researchers turned their attention towards Tokyo to follow up on these very important and insightful studies. These studies actually resembled a new strategic ideology, with which an interaction between the western and Japanese strategic ideologies was to occur. This new strategic ideology aspires to dominate all emerging strategies. My old text had presented a clear map of the new Global Community's configuration. It also presented a collection of futuristic scenarios for this society as presented by the ‘Tokyo Club for Global Studies'. This map was based on three main pillars: 1- The interchangeable key indicators 2- Reactants 3- The structure of the emerging new Global Community Pillar one: The interchangeable key indicators for the Global Community The report presented ten different indicators for the Global Community. This is not the place to discuss each in detail; we'll only highlight the most obvious characteristics for each. The first indicator is the abolishment of ideologies which came as a result of the acute polarization between capitalism and communism during the last few decades. That alone caused a significant decline in focus on global ideologies, and the emergence of a Global Partnership, as well as a tripartite relationship. Even though this happened, more ideologies, such as the liberal and religious ones will continue to play their part. However, they will not necessarily continue to play the villain in the Global Community. The collapse of ideologies that happened due to the abolishment of planned economics has led to two structural changes. The first structural change was brought on by the Orient and Occident, North and South dichotomies which formed the world for the last decades. The Orient involves some nations striving to monopolize capital and technology from the West. Therefore, the Orient became similar to the South in its struggle to secure finances and take part in the ‘Global Partnership'. The second structural change was manifest in the increase of competitiveness between the U.S., the European Union and Japan. The relationship was to become simultaneously a mixture of competition and mutual economic agreements. The relationship between these two structural changes and the tripartite relationship will mark the Global Change as a whole, resembling an all-time draw match. This means that one side's win is another side's loss. There are three scenarios unfolding in this complex relationship. Fierce rivalry between the Orient and the Occident may be amiably resolved, or may result in many political and cultural subdivisions. There is also the possibility that a rapprochement between the European Union and Japan may occur. The second key indicator for Global Community change is the emergence of a Global Economic Market. While the third key indicator is the increase in complexity of the military dimension. The fourth key indicator, however, is related to an increase in the manifestation of democratic forms. Differences will arise and these forms will have much weaker structures, especially in the Third World where doors will be wide open for various manifestations, which can be termed ‘national extremism'. The fifth key indicator is cultural diversity. These improvised cultural trends may take many forms; some may resist cultures. The sixth key indicator considers higher human rights values, democracy and environment and the seventh the dominance of the middle class that is emerging globally. This indicator is about a futuristic prognosis of the middle class's growth in volume in developing countries as they follow the progress patterns of middle classes in industrial nations during the fifties and sixties. The eighth indicator deals with anticipating huge population migrations in the world which will happen due to various circumstances stemming from three main pedigrees: First: From south to north, the second: from former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe to Western countries, and the third: from nations suffering from natural disasters and environmental catastrophes to neighboring countries. This will consequently lead to an increase of tribal and ethnic violence. If we correlate these three pedigrees we can safely predict that the upcoming decades will witness the biggest population movements since the advent of the modern world. The ninth key indicator deals with universal science versus national technology. Science and technology will replace ideology, thus becoming the main motivator in the Global Community. The communication revolution has made Global Community a virtual reality, due to the ease in communication between different parts of the world. The tenth indicator would be the dramatic increase in illegal national transactions, with Black Markets for arms, atomic and tactic weaponry and drug trafficking on top of them all. There is also a possibility of escalating terrorism.
If we were to critically observe these key indicators we would reach a principal conclusion: they have all occurred in reality. This conclusion asserts the ability of social science to correctly and accurately foresee outcomes in the Global Community. I might be reserved expressing that tenth key indicator; the ‘possibility' of having a high Global Terrorism Index which was proven inaccurate yet an ‘undeniable reality' in a way. Terrorism has actually become the one phenomena reigning over the world, causing massive public concerns.
