The New York times newspaper revealed that Iraqi and American military officials have intensified talk in recent weeks of a major offensive against Islamic State militants, casting it as a quickly approaching operation that is likely to target the extremists' stronghold in the northern city of Mosul. But at the same time, Iraqi commanders, soldiers and police officers who could play a central role in any offensive are raising doubts about the readiness of Iraq's ground forces. Iraqi forces explained that the army has struggled to recapture even smaller towns that pose less of a challenge than Mosul — Iraq's second-largest city, which is still full of civilians and heavily defended by the militants. "Our assessment shows an offensive against Mosul is not imminent," said Masrour Barzani, the head of the Kurdistan Region Security Council. He said it would take more time to train security forces, and a greater effort by Iraq's central government was needed to win the support of local Sunni residents and tribes around Mosul. The urgency about the offensive reflects intensifying pressures on the Iraqi government and American military planners to deliver a signal achievement more than eight months after the Islamic State stormed Mosul and other parts of western and northern Iraq. For the government of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the strains on the country become more unbearable by the week: Hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced from their homes, with some Iraqis, like those from Falluja, exiled for more than a year. Just as destabilizing are the daily reports of atrocities by the extremists, which circulate in the videos of mass shootings and beheadings from the occupied territories, the victims sometimes surfacing later in mass graves. Sectarian and ethnic tensions have been increasing, as well. As Shiite and Kurdish militiamen have made gains against the Islamic State — in general, more so than Iraq's security forces — some of the militia fighters have carried out retaliatory attacks on Sunni residents, accusing them of loyalty to the militants. American officials say they are trying to balance the Iraqi government's desire to move quickly toward Mosul against real concerns about repeating the mistakes that led to the collapse of the Iraqi military and the quick advance of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. "There is emotional energy across the country to get this done as quickly as possible," one American official in Baghdad acknowledged, saying that Iraqi officials were "committed" to preparing for the offensive. But, he added, "There is much work to do." The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of discussing planning for a future military operation. Any serious effort to move against Islamic State fighters in Mosul would take close coordination between government institutions and forces that have rarely been unified, including units of the Iraqi security forces as well as tribal and Kurdish fighters, and various government ministries. The preparations — which include basic and advanced training for 4,000 Iraqi troops by American trainers and advisers — are complicated by the fact that the government and its army are busy dealing with attacks by Islamic State fighters across the country. Photo Members of the Iraqi police special forces marched in Najaf in November before heading off to fight Islamic State militants. Credit Haidar Hamdani/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images In the most recent example, late on Thursday, Islamic State militants captured most of Baghdadi, a town near a sprawling military base where American troops are training Iraqi forces in Anbar Province. Hours later, a small group of militants tried to attack that base and were killed by Iraqi forces, the United States military said in a statement. "The Iraqis are certainly stretched very thin," the American official said. "They have multiple challenges across different fronts against a determined, resilient enemy." While the military has successfully defended parts of Iraq — including, critically, Baghdad — it has failed to recapture several crucial cities, including Falluja and Tikrit, despite repeated attempts. Col. Ibrahim al-Timimi, with the army's operational command in Salahuddin Province, said the Tikrit operation had suffered from poor planning. As that became apparent, the soldiers' morale plummeted, delays dragged out and the Islamic State exploited the chance to reinforce its defenses. The militants planted thousands more bombs and booby traps, and flooded the city with "hundreds of foreign and Iraqi fighters who cannot be defeated unless we bring more troops equal to their experience." In another case, the security forces successfully won back the northern Iraqi city of Baiji, which sits next to an important refinery, only to lose it to the Islamic State again weeks later, in a defeat that highlighted the disorganization and lack of resources that have contributed to the army's struggles. After Islamic State militants opened their second offensive against Baiji in December, Capt. Ayad Fadel, who serves in an American-trained special operations unit, said he was called away from a different battle in Anbar to help in the fight for the city. His unit was able to advance and clear the militants from the center of the city, he said. Photo Iraqi forces last summer had regained control of the oil refinery city of Baiji, but lost the northern city again to the militants in a defeat that highlighted a lack of organization and resources. But other units — including lightly armed regular army forces and volunteer fighters organized under the banner of "popular mobilization" forces — made mistakes that Captain Fadel blamed on a "lack of unified command," including suddenly abandoning a crucial highway in the city, allowing the militants to storm back in. Captain Fadel and other men in his unit found themselves trapped inside a mosque and surrounded by heavily armed Islamic State fighters, able to escape only after American warplanes conducted airstrikes against the militants. Central Baiji is still occupied by the Islamic State. Elite forces like his were putting out multiple fires at once, moving between Baiji and several other fronts, Captain Fadel said. And the volunteers being trained to bolster the army's strength were hardly any help, he said. American officials say the Iraqi soldiers they are training are supposed to free up more seasoned troops, who could then participate in any future offensive. The first batch of trainees is supposed to graduate from the program in the next week. The Islamic State's forces have been battered by six months of airstrikes that have killed some commanders and limited the ability of the militants to gather in the open, as they did during the early months of the summer, according to military officials. But a string of recent attacks by the militants — including a surprise offensive on the city of Kirkuk, that killed two senior Kurdish commanders — has demonstrated their continued ability to muster lethal advances. And the Islamic State is hardly unaware that retaking Mosul is a priority. Residents of Mosul have described the steps the militants are taking to improve the city's defenses, including fortifying its entrances with concrete blast walls and even digging a trench around the city. Kurdish security officials say they have managed to cut off supply lines to Mosul, including from the north, but are puzzled as to why Iraqi troops have not advanced from the south in order to further isolate the militants. "This has been slow," Mr. Barzani said.
