The new peace envoy suits Israel and nobody else, reports Khaled Amayreh Tony Blair, now the Quartet's peace envoy to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, this week started his mission to the region with a high-profile visit to West Jerusalem and Ramallah where he held exploratory talks with Israeli and Palestinian leaders. Blair described his talks as "good and constructive." "I think there is a sense of possibility, but whether that sense can be translated into something, that something needs to be worked at and thought about over time," Blair said after meeting Israeli President Shimon Peres. Peres responded, telling Blair that, "your success is our success; your dreams are our dreams. We will help you." In Ramallah, Blair told his Palestinian hosts that his visit was intended to gather input for formulating his strategy. However, aside from the diplomatic niceties and the media-friendly sound-bites, it was amply clear that the former British PM, notwithstanding his zeal to leave a lasting positive impact in Palestine that would vindicate him in light of his disastrous legacy in Iraq, would have an uphill task. Some commentators, Israelis and Palestinians alike, have already given him a zero-chance of success. Their pessimism is not unwarranted for several reasons. The United States, which effectively imposed Blair on the Quartet, is reluctant to authorise him to discuss the core issues of the Palestinian- Israeli conflict, including the central issue of ending the 40-year-old Israeli occupation of the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip. Raising these issues is anathema for the Israeli government since it would expose Israel's adamant refusal to give up the spoils of the 1967 War, which is actually the main if not sole obstacle impeding peace in the Middle East. To avoid this prospect, of being pressured to negotiate a final-status settlement with the Palestinians, Israel reportedly asked the Bush administration to see to it that Blair doesn't deal with the sensitive final-status issues. Israeli leaders believe such issues should be discussed at a bilateral level between Israel and Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Mahmoud Abbas without any third-party interference or intervention. Responding positively to the Israeli request, Bush last week asked Blair to focus on technical matters, such as building PA institutions and mobilising international support for the Ramallah-based government. This really angered PA officials in Ramallah who argued that Blair's mission would be meaningless without discussing the core issues and creating a momentum toward ending the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian homeland. The Israeli insistence on bilateral negotiations with the Palestinians is very telling. Israel is worried that the involvement of a third party would militate against Israel since in this case the Palestinians would invoke international law and UN Security Council resolutions. However, in a bilateral setting, Israel hopes to be able to coerce the weak and vulnerable Palestinians into accepting a dismal deal that would allow Israel to retain large parts of the occupied territories, including major settlements and much of East Jerusalem. Needless to say, such a deal would be rejected by the bulk of the Palestinian people who would view it as an outright surrender to Israel. The Israeli government realises that Blair is a minor player and that any success he might be able to achieve would have to be okayed by the Bush administration which in turn wouldn't impose anything on Israel against its will. "Even if the dominant view, that Blair will exceed his limited mandate and seek to negotiate a final status agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, is true, there are few people losing sleep about this in Jerusalem," wrote Israeli journalist Aluf Benn in Haaretz on 24 July. Moreover, it is clear that Israel is viewing Blair's mission mainly from a public relations perspective. According to Benn, Israel will only try to "use Blair's talents" to disseminate the following messages to the international community: that Israel wants agreement with the Palestinians, that it doesn't want to hold onto the territories, and that it is interested in bolstering Abbas. Of course, Israel won't tell Blair, or indeed, the world, that it is determined to arrogate large parts of the occupied West Bank and keep hundreds of thousands of Jewish settlers in the occupied territory, which would effectively render any prospect for a viable Palestinian state unrealistic if not outright impossible. Israel also won't forget to ask Blair to act as go-between with other Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, in the hope that these states will agree to normalise relations with Israel in return for nothing. In other words, Israel wants to use Blair as another propaganda ambassador in the service of Israeli public diplomacy for the purpose of diverting attention from the real issue, namely the 40-year-old occupation. However, if and when Blair press Israel to end that occupation, it is a foregone conclusion that Israel will not hesitate to scuttle the whole process. Blair said repeatedly that the conflict in Palestine is the root cause of many international conflicts including the war in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as the issue of terror. Israel doesn't like to hear talk like this and wants to keep the conflict with the Palestinians confined to the local arena in order to extract from them maximum concessions by way of bullying and coercion. The Palestinians, too, are not much impressed by Blair's mission. Nimr Hammad, advisor to Abbas, told reporters in Ramallah 23 July that, "we know his mission won't achieve much since the Americans are the only people who can pressure Israel." One Fatah official in Ramallah was less diplomatic. He said the Palestinian people were not interested in wasting time. "The Israelis and Americans want Blair to confine his mission to technical matters such as building institutions and coordinating foreign aid. These are very secondary issues. Our central problem is the Israeli occupation. If he doesn't want to tackle this issue, I don't know why he is coming here."
