The NDP's ninth congress is being trailed as an opportunity to restructure the party. But what might that involve, asks Gamal Essam El-Din The six-member steering office of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) met on Saturday to discuss preparations for internal elections and the party's ninth congress. The meeting followed NDP chairman President Hosni Mubarak's call last week for party elections aimed at rejuvenating ranks and attracting younger members. "The party's statutes, adopted by the eighth congress in 2002, require that elections be held every five years, ahead of the general congress," said NDP Secretary-General Safwat El-Sherif. The aim of the stipulation, he added, is to attract younger voters to the party. The elections, scheduled between 18 August and 10 September, will fill positions at the village, town and city, and governorate levels. NDP committee seats will also be up for grabs. Nominations will begin on 12 August and continue for two days. El-Sherif explained that each local party will elect 20 representatives by secret ballot. Two of the representatives must be under 25, and two women. The remaining representatives will be drawn from workers and farmers. "Reserving seats for young people and women underlines that the aim of the elections is to increase the representation of women and the young within the party," said El-Sherif. Choosing members of the party's core units by election rather than by selection or appointment "will reinforce the democratisation of NDP ranks from the bottom to the top". "We need new blood, people who know how to deal with citizens in the villages, towns and cities and at governorate level," argued El-Sherif. Senior NDP officials will monitor the elections and ensure "candidates fully support the party's new style of thinking slogan and that the poll is marked by transparency and integrity," insisted El-Sherif. The elections, say observers, may herald a major shake-up during the NDP's ninth congress, scheduled for 3-5 November. El-Sherif has already said the change in internal structures will be followed by a reshuffle in the party's highest offices -- the chairman, the 13- member politburo and 29-member secretariat-general. "As many as 5,743 party leaders are expected to take part in the congress and elect members to the most senior positions," El-Sherif revealed. News of the proposed changes has sparked a flurry of speculation, with pundits predicting several possible scenarios. Prominent Al-Ahram columnist Salama Ahmed Salama says there are three possible outcomes to the planned changes. "President Mubarak could step down as NDP chairman to open up the post for someone younger." In such a case Salama believes the president's 44- year-old son Gamal will be the most likely candidate. "Not only could this be the first step towards officially grooming Gamal Mubarak for the presidency, it will also separate the post of NDP chairman and president of the republic," said Salama. Should Gamal Mubarak become the NDP's next chairman, he argues, the party's old guard will become increasingly marginalised. "The younger generation, led by Gamal Mubarak, will then prepare itself for the next step -- running in the 2011 presidential elections." Amr Elchobky, also from Al-Ahram, agrees. He expects that the NDP congress will end with President Mubarak becoming honorary chairman of the NDP while Gamal Mubarak replaces him at the actual helm of the party. "In form it will look like a democratic process, though it will in fact represent a huge step in the direction of establishing a Mubarak dynasty," said Elchobky. A majority of NDP members, however, believe Mubarak will remain party chairman and that it is the position of the secretary-general that will change. Potential candidates for the post include Gamal Mubarak, Zakaria Azmi (assistant secretary-general), and Alieddin Hilal (media secretary), though insiders believe that in any run-off Gamal Mubarak will emerge victorious and become the party's second most senior official. "In such a case," says Elchobky, "the aim will be to provide a veneer of democracy for Gamal eventually succeeding his father." NDP insiders also expect changes on the politburo, with current Secretary- General El-Sherif being offered the post of deputy chairman. "It is an honorary position, given to old timers that the party wants to shunt aside," said one source inside the party. The congress, believes Elchobky, will be the scene of a struggle over power and influence. He has little doubt that Gamal Mubarak will emerge the winner.
