Egypt is getting worried about Lebanon's continuing political crisis, but remains wary of increased intervention, Dina Ezzat reports Time is running out for Lebanon's conflicting political groups and more pragmatism should be demonstrated by all concerned parties. This is the message that new Egyptian Ambassador to Lebanon Ahmed Al-Bedeiwi is expected to deliver during early consultations in Beirut having arrived a few days ago. This was also the message that visiting French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner received in high-level consultations in Cairo last Thursday. "I arrived in Lebanon with a clear priority: to encourage Lebanese reconciliation," Al-Bedeiwi told Al-Ahram Weekly during a telephone interview from Lebanon. "Egypt wants to help the conflicting Lebanese parties to move towards reconciliation; it is becoming crucial." The Egyptian ambassador presented his credentials to the Lebanese president last Thursday. Since then he has been busy meeting top political figures that represent the conflicting political camps in Lebanon. These meetings, Al-Bedeiwi said, would intensify in the coming days and weeks. Until now, Egypt has maintained a cautious stance towards the Lebanese political crisis that has threatened the country's stability for over a year since the end of Israel's summer 2006 war of aggression and the consequent split that followed on the status and prerogatives of the influential militant resistance group Hizbullah and the government of Fouad Al-Siniora. Cairo encouraged several mediation efforts, especially those of Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa. Its former ambassador in Beirut, Hussein Derar, who just ended his post, conducted extensive consultations with all political players, Lebanese and non-Lebanese. These consultations were closely coordinated with Derar's Saudi counterpart, Abdul-Aziz Al-Khoga, and tuned to the rhythm set by other players, including Syria, Iran, France and the US. The basic frame of reference for this political exercise was that Egypt would take sides or exert pressure on any party. Cairo may need to change this subtle style, however, sooner rather than later. While not entertaining direct diplomatic mediation, Egyptian officials may soon be obliged to send rather less subtle messages to key Lebanese political players. With the presidential elections process due to start 25 September and be complete by mid-November, Cairo is getting worried about the lack of Lebanese consensus on a shortlist of possible successors to President Emile Lahoud whose extension in office under Syrian pressure two years ago sparked the present phase of political upheaval. Today, Cairo is closely monitoring the political tug of war between the camp of Al-Siniora that represents the parliamentary majority and that argues under the constitution they are in a situation to pass their candidate, and that of the opposition, which contests that a parliamentary majority is required when it comes to who chooses the president. As far as Cairo is concerned, the question is not one of interpreting the constitution, but rather the political will to reach a compromise between conflicting Lebanese forces. To this end, Egypt will work on inducing both camps to step back from political combat and reach a shortlist of candidates through dialogue. In accordance with the constitution, speaker of parliament Nabih Berri -- affiliated to the opposition -- has called for a parliamentary session 25 September to start the presidential election process. It is unlikely, however, that opposition members of parliament will attend. Their absence would obstruct the two-thirds quorum the opposition argues is a constitutional necessity for the electoral process to be launched. Egyptian officials are under no illusions about changing the intention of the opposition to flex its political muscles. What Egypt is hoping for is that once this message is sent a more pragmatic approach prevails. Cairo is already sending messages to Syria requesting support for positive engagement on the part of the Lebanese opposition. In this, Egypt is supporting the French attempt to secure Syrian support in return for unspecific political compensation for Damascus, which has been suffering Arab and international political isolation. For Egyptian officials, the need to push hard for Lebanese reconciliation is not just meant to spare Lebanon from a worse state of political upheaval. It is also to ward off what Cairo believes likely if reconciliation is not achieved: direct foreign intervention in Lebanese affairs along lines being proposed in some international quarters.
