The Iranian-Western showdown moves into high gear with parliaments throwing down gauntlets and much more, as Mustafa El-Labbad sits back and watches the fireworks The American Congress has issued a resolution labelling the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organisation. This is the first time in the history of the United States that an official governmental association has been included in the list of terrorists. Until now, the list had been restricted to militias and non- state partisan groups. In response, a day later the Iranian parliament voted on a similar resolution requiring its government to consider the Central Intelligence Agency and the American army terrorist organisations. Meanwhile, the framework agreement that Iran signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) two weeks ago forced the members of the United National Security Council, plus Germany, to delay imposing new economic sanctions against Iran until the agreement is implemented with a deadline of the end of November. This framework agreement states that Iran will respond to the IAEA's questions related to its nuclear programme in successive stages lasting until mid-December. Splitting the responses into successive stages allows Iran to deal with the increasing pressure on it by gaining time, a fillip for the Iranians. Washington is furious, charging that Mohamed El-Baradei has undermined diplomatic pressure on Tehran and granted it protection from international sanctions for two months, which Washington views as overstepping his authority as the director of the IAEA. The two parties agreed to split the questions that the IAEA has not received responses into two negotiating stages, each one consisting of various parts. Iran will respond to each part by a specific deadline, to be followed by another part to respond to by a subsequent deadline. At the end of the first stage, when Iran has responded to all the queries, El-Baradei will write a report that will be distributed to IAEA members and which will document the successful completion of this first stage. The second stage of the agreement will then be split into parts with specific deadlines. If Tehran responds to all of the questions in a satisfactory manner, the IAEA will then declare that the Iranian nuclear programme is solely peaceful and it will be removed from its list of problem cases. The first stage of the framework agreement is split into the following parts: inspection of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, on which the IAEA authorised a report published on 23 July; inspection of the Arak heavy water facility that took place at the end of July; the design of the B-2 centrifugal equipment that Iran must submit by the end of November; and the reason for the traces of enriched uranium found in some Iranian nuclear sites, which Iran must respond to by mid- December. The second stage of the agreement will come into force after the IAEA acknowledges the success of the first stage. Iran will then answer questions about the Polonium 210 in its possession, and then questions related to the uranium mine in Qashin. Iran has also expressed its readiness to respond to questions about the laptop computer that Washington submitted to the IAEA that it obtained in a manner it refuses to reveal. The laptop contains secret information about the Iranian nuclear programme, the Iranian programme for missile capacity development, the means of underground nuclear testing, and the ways of producing "green salt". Iran says that the laptop case is fabricated, but that it will respond to the questions related to it, although the framework agreement has not set a timetable for responding to this portion of questions. As proof of good will, Iran has agreed to appoint five new IAEA inspectors, and will grant 14 inspectors and their assistants year-long multiple entry visas so that they can enter Iran as they like during the coming months. Iran did not forget to add a paragraph to the end of the framework agreement clearly stating that "the questions listed in this agreement are all the questions permissible." In other words, Tehran has established through this agreement that there won't be any additional questioning at a subsequent stage. It thus cuts off the possibility of the inspection missions turning into escalating pressures that might result in wresting political and sovereign concessions, as occurred in the Iraqi experience. Through signing this agreement, Iran also succeeded in avoiding additional sanctions from the UN Security Council that Western parties (America, France, Britain, and, less so, Germany) intended to pass this month. Western parties oppose the agreement because it poses a question that is difficult to answer: why is a party punished if it is cooperative and innocent? As for the negotiating victory gaining time until at least mid- December, Washington will cover its escalation against Iran with an international cloak. The Senate's resolution is clearly an attempt to maintain the escalation against Tehran despite the delay in enforcing sanctions until the degree of Iran's cooperation with the IAEA is shown. It seems that the American mission regarding Iran is not as simple as some of those in Washington had thought. Not only does Tehran possess deterrent cards that will make it a difficult target in the case of a military confrontation being waged, but the framework agreement signed between the IAEA and Iran also boosts Tehran's negotiating power. Iran has gained points in the IAEA round, but it will still need to confront a dangerous and unpredictable adversary whose wild resolution was but the beginning of the fireworks.
