The first meeting of Yemen's national dialogue took place last weekend, with as yet uncertain aims and schedule, writes Nasser Arrabyee Political parties in Yemen have begun a national dialogue over reform in a bid to rescue the country from possible collapse. However, the real question raised by observers of the process turns not so much on whether dialogue among the parties will succeed, but instead on whether such dialogue will be effective in a country where real influence lies with the tribes. It is not yet known what the dialogue process will put forward as solutions to some of the main challenges facing the country, including armed rebellion in the north, separation calls in the south, the increasing presence of Al-Qaeda in the country, and the deterioration of the economy. The dialogue may only result in calls for fresh parliamentary elections next April. The first meeting of the national dialogue took place on 7 August, with the ruling People's General Congress (PGC) and the opposition Joint Meeting Parties (JMPs), a collection of six opposition parties, taking part. In agreeing to take part in dialogue, both sides are implementing the agreement reached in February 2009, under which parliamentary elections were postponed from April that year to April 2011, the idea being to find the breathing space to introduce the political and electoral reforms that would guarantee free and fair elections. With only eight months remaining until next April, when the parliamentary elections are supposed to take place, there is now not much time left to introduce the political, constitutional, and electoral reforms that were agreed upon as needed in the February 2009 agreement. Despite the fact that both the opposition JMPs and the ruling PGC insist in public that the current dialogue will advance the issues identified in the February 2009 agreement, there is little time left to prepare the April elections themselves, let alone introduce an ambitious slate of reforms. For their part, the opposition JMPs, which includes the main Islamist party, Islah, the Socialist Party, the Nasserite Party, and three other smaller parties, all insist on the need for comprehensive political and electoral reforms before the April 2011 elections. They also insist that the country's current single constituency voting system should be replaced by a proportional system ahead of the voting. Given the fact that almost no preparations for the elections have taken place so far, the ruling PGC seems to want to discuss the elections alone and to delay the reforms. Perhaps it is on this point that the success or failure of the national dialogue will turn. Is this a dialogue intended to prepare for the April 2011 elections, or is it a dialogue intended to bring in comprehensive reforms? "To make the dialogue a success, the opposition and ruling parties should make concessions. If each side insists on getting what it wants, then the chances of coming out of the dialogue with practical results to show for it are very few," commented Mohamed Aish, a political analyst. In the first meeting of the national dialogue last Saturday, ruling PGC and opposition JMPs delegates made little progress aside from choosing a president and a vice-president from each side for the 200-member joint committee overseeing the process. Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi and Abdel-Karim Al-Eryani were chosen as president and vice- president of the joint committee from the ruling PGC. Hadi is vice-president of the Republic and secretary-general of the PGC. Al-Eryani is a political advisor to Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh. Mohamed Salem Basendwa and Abdel-Wahab Al-Ansi were chosen as president and vice-president of the joint committee on the part of the JMPs. Basendwa is a former foreign minister, and Al-Ansi is secretary-general of the Islamist Islah Party. The parties also formed a smaller committee made up of 30 members, 15 from the ruling PGC and its allies and 15 from the JMPs and theirs. According to Said Aidarous Al-Nakeeb, speaking on behalf of the JMPs, the result of the dialogue should be "comprehensive political reform that leads to a democratic, institutional, decentralised system based on the separation of powers, the rule of law, respect for human rights, and the peaceful transfer of power." "It's very much possible to reach results that will satisfy all, as long as these are in the interests of the homeland," said Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, speaking on behalf of the ruling PGC.
