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Sidestepping a blackout
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 12 - 08 - 2010

A row is flaring over government efforts to reduce electricity consumption amid an exceptionally hot summer, reports Ahmed Kotb
High temperatures sweeping Egypt this summer have increased demand for electricity like never before. Air conditioners, the only way to make the weather bearable, overload networks that serve homes, shops, malls, industry and streets. Although officials say electricity production has doubled in recent years, peak periods of use in the summer disrupt networks and bring power cuts.
According to Aktham Abu Leila, deputy minister of electricity and energy, the number of air conditioning (AC) units in 2009 jumped to three million, up from 700,000 in 2006. "ACs consume 12 per cent of the load during rush hours, which equals 2,500 megawatts, worth LE17 billion," he said.
"People have the right to turn on their AC at any time they want, but efficiency is required," says Ahmed Bahgat, professor of electrical engineering at Cairo University. He claims that some people leave their ACs switched on all the time, even if they are not home. Bahgat also says that many people use unnecessary lights in homes or at work, which results in massive increases in the load curve.
As stated by the Ministry of Electricity and Energy, the maximum load reached 23,500 megawatts in late July. In the 1960s, the maximum load was roughly 400 megawatts, Bahgat said, adding that the numbers indicate careless consumption.
Bahgat noted that in industrialised countries like Germany, home consumption of electricity is lower than industrial sector consumption. In Egypt, homes consume 39 per cent of total electricity production and industry uses 33 per cent, figures confirmed by Abu Leila.
Consumption during rush hours, two hours starting from dusk, increases by 4,000 megawatts and costs LE6 billion, Abu Leila said. Thus action should be taken to face the risk of network collapse and ease the load.
Bahgat believes that low household electricity prices make people unconcerned about turning off unneeded lights, ACs, or electronic devices. According to Abu Leila, 98 per cent of citizens equally benefit from the annual LE7 billion subsidies on electricity. These include both high-income brackets with high electricity consumption and low-income brackets with low consumption.
Bahgat asserts that high consumers should not benefit from subsidies. However, the Ministry of Electricity and Energy eschews any change in energy subsidies and says there will not be any changes in household electricity prices, even during peak periods of use.
Responding to network overload, the government decided last month to switch off 50 per cent of Egypt's streetlights, which consume 6.5 per cent of total electricity. The decision saves LE6 billion annually. The Ministry of Finance has also allocated LE260 million for energy saving lamps to replace ordinary lamps.
Meanwhile, a controversial decision was recently taken by the government to close all shops by 7pm. Although the decision is still being studied, it has already stirred much debate. Many shop owners say that 7pm is the time when people start shopping.
"If that decision is implemented, it will kill my business," says Sameh Hamed, a computer shop owner. Hamed, like many other shop owners, said that 60 per cent of his sales take place after 7pm. He suggested that 10pm would be a better time for shops to close.
Abdallah Ghali, professor of economics at Cairo University, says that if shops close at 7pm revenues will be less, and hence revenue from taxes that finance infrastructure projects will be reduced. Ghali also drew attention to the possibility that if people had nowhere to go after 7pm, birth rates would skyrocket -- referring to a similar situation in the 1970s.
Government officials say that if the decision is to be implemented it will not be before next summer.
Although there is scepticism regarding the government's electricity production efforts, electricity production lines, distribution networks and other projects carried out in 2009 and 2010 added 5,000 megawatts of capacity, says Abu Leila.
Bahgat says that part of his job at the university is to map expected consumption 10 years ahead, so energy projects can be built. Any one such project can take around four years before it is completed.
According to Abu Leila, the Egyptian government plans to start an international bidding process at the end of the year for its first nuclear energy plant, worth LE4 billion and expected to commence operations in 2019 and add 1,000 megawatts of capacity. Three other nuclear plants are expected to be launched by 2025 and add 3,000 megawatts of further capacity.
"The procedures are fast, since a nuclear project in any country being carried out for the first time takes from 12 to 15 years to start operations," Abu Leila said.
"It is the rationalisation of electricity consumption at home that saves us the trouble," said Bahgat. "So turn off a lamp or an unneeded AC and conserve the country's energy.


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