Gamal Nkrumah examines the root causes of the flaring of fighting in Chad this week Chadian President Idriss Deby, holed up in the presidential palace in the Chadian capital Ndjamena, is once again facing a coalition of armed opposition forces he says are supported by neighbouring Sudan. This is the second time in as many years that the Chadian capital has been besieged by rebel forces hoping to overthrow the Deby regime. The cycle of violence seems to be gathering its own momentum beyond the control of Chadian politicians and tribal leaders. As in previous cases, innocent civilians have paid a terrible price. The humanitarian conditions in the Chadian capital are deplorable. Thousands of Chadians fled the capital, and foreigners, mainly French nationals, were evacuated in planes chartered by the French government. Diplomats, including the United States and German ambassadors in Ndjamena were also were also flown out under French supervision. Indeed, France, the former colonial master of Chad, is to this day a key player in Chadian domestic politics. Two other countries appear to exercise considerable influence in Chadian politics -- neighbouring Libya to the immediate north of Chad and Sudan to the west. Both Libya and Sudan share long borders with Chad and they also share many ethnic groups whose tribal affiliation is a critically important factor in the political interplay between the three countries. Neither France nor Libya have openly criticised Deby's human rights record even though international, regional and local perceptions of the Deby regime have been especially jaundiced in recent years. In June 2005, Deby, much to the consternation of the opposition parties, amended the constitution so as to allow him a third term in office. And, he predictably made a clean sweep at the last presidential polls in May 2006, which were boycotted by the opposition. Deby had earlier comfortably won two presidential elections in 1996 and 2001, which the opposition claim were rigged. Deby has been in power since he ousted Hissène Habré in a bloody military takeover 17 years ago. The failure to confront its past is one of Chad's main political problems today, leaving Chad -- a sprawling country of 10 million people almost the size of Alaska -- once again embroiled in civil war. The central African country, though rich in minerals and agricultural potential, is dogged by rampant poverty and an underdeveloped economy. Chad has one of the lowest standards of living in the world. Ethnic and tribal conflicts complicate the Chadian political scene. Political power has been confined to the desert north and arid centre, home to rival Muslim, predominantly non-Arab, tribes. The agriculturally rich but politically peripheralised south is composed of mainly Christian ethnic groups. The Chadian people must be given a choice to decide who should govern them. President Deby has failed to prove himself to be a democrat in his third, and hopefully last term in office. In Chad's last presidential poll, flaws were patent, confirming opposition claims. New election rules are needed if a stable government is to return. Presidential elections are due in May 2008, but most Chadian opposition figures believe that Deby would not give anyone else a chance to rule the country even though the Chadian capital is agog with rumours that the 56-year-old Deby has serious health problems. Deby is also known to be keenly interested in having his son Ibrahim succeed him. Ironically, the manner in which Deby came to power in December 1990 is reminiscent of the fashion in which the Chadian armed opposition are now storming Ndjamena. The Zaghawa people of President Deby control the upper echelons of the Chadian army. The Zaghawa inhabit a large swathe of territory in northern Chad, southern Libya and Darfur. In Chad, they constitute a tiny minority of less than two per cent of the population, but they have complete control over its political life. The fractious Chadian opposition is united for the time being, though it is not clear whether they will remain united if and when they attain power by force. Chadian armed opposition groups, like their counterparts in Darfur, are prone to sectarianism. The largest and most influential armed opposition group at present is the United Front for Democracy and Development (UFDD), itself a coalition of disparate forces united only in their opposition to the Deby regime. The UFDD and a host of other opposition groups launched the present uprising. The northern rebels, grouped under the Front Uni pour le Changement (FUC) under Mohamed Nour Abdul-Karim, had signed a peace deal with Deby in December, but have now joined the UFDD in a common effort to topple the Deby regime, describing the Chadian president's brand of democracy as a sham. The UFDD is headed by Mohamed Nouri a former cabinet minister of a previous Deby government who defected to the opposition when he was serving as Chad's ambassador to Saudi Arabia two years ago. The UFDD-Fundamental is yet another rival opposition group currently aligned to the mainstream UFDD and is headed by Abdul-Wahid Aboud Makaye. A third armed opposition group is the Rally of Forces for Change led by Timane Erdini. The point to be noted is that many of Deby's former allies have stabbed him in the back by joining the various rebel groups, and are now among his deadliest enemies. It looks like the poison of backstabbing and political infighting has thus done President Deby in. Ironically, all this political intrigue might give him just enough to work with until his term ends. Deby dares not allow examination, let alone criticism, of his mistakes. He banks on oil revenues and French largesse and military backing. French troops are providing logistical support to the Chadian armed forces loyal to Deby, proof that France is still very much a player in Chad's political life and hardly in the promotion of democracy, despite loud noises to this effect by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner. "We really hope we won't have to intervene further," Kouchner said somewhat unconvincingly. Sarkozy was far more frank. "We firmly condemn the attempted takeover ," he stressed in a statement issued by Elysee Palace. There are 1,500 French troops permanently stationed in Chad, and the French contingency will be the largest component of the 3,700 strong European Union peacekeeping forces in the strategic central African country. In the past, France has come to the rescue, but there are signs that it is somewhat reluctant to do so this time, and it clearly holds the key to Deby's survival. France wants the international community to give it the go-ahead before it intervenes militarily. Overt unilateral interference in Chad is no longer a French option. Even so, French officials and diplomats have voiced concern for the beleaguered Chadian government. "Chad is the victim of aggression by armed groups who want to take power by force," explained Jean-Maurice Ripert, the French ambassador to the United Nations. France wants a mandate from the UN Security Council to intervene militarily on behalf of Deby's government forces led by General Mohamed Ali Abdullah, who, however, claimed on Monday that the armed opposition groups have been "utterly routed". Sadly, there is not a glimmer of hope that the UFDD or any other armed opposition group in Chad would prove a better bet than Deby. Still, the fact is that this time round, as in the past, Chadian government troops have deserted the army in droves and defected to join UFDD coalition. Deby's Patriotic Salvation Movement has been acting as if it is operating in a one-party state and is discredited as a legitimate political force. The battle for control of Ndjamena thus boils down to a straight fight between Deby's henchmen and the key opposition figures, many of whom were once Deby's key political associates. Indeed, one of the problems in Chadian politics is that there are no new faces -- the key players are long past their due- date. Even if Deby won the battle for Ndjamena, the Chadian opposition would not just go away. The Chadian armed opposition forces cannot be defeated or ignored. But embracing them would not be easy. Chad is notorious for its perpetual civil wars. The current upheaval was triggered three years ago, and is in all probability going to be repeated again and again -- some observers say that Deby's foes will try desperately to retake the capital again before the onset of the rainy season in summer and the May elections. If European Union peacekeeping forces or French troops intervene, the UFDD's task would be made impossibly difficult. Even if the armed opposition groups are chased out of the capital, they will regroup and return. So the question is how to lure the Chadian opposition into peaceful politics. Only President Deby holds the key to the answer of this pivotal question. If he hangs on to power and rigs elections or imposes his son as successor, then there is no hope in hell for poor Chad. The opposition, too, have yet to prove that they are fit for the job they covet.
