Despite the suffering they have endured over recent decades, it seems the Iraqis will have to endure a lot more pain, writes Salah Hemeid With only two weeks to go before the deadline for US combat troops to leave Iraq, top US officials are painting a bright picture of how well-prepared Iraqi security forces are for the task of restoring stability to the violence-ravaged nation. However, many observers and some Iraqi officials are disputing the American assertions, saying that things are not as rosy as they might seem from Washington. The country's future is bleak, such observers say, warning of serious setbacks once the Americans are out of the country. In a speech last week, US President Barack Obama declared that violence in the country was at its lowest level in years. He also reiterated his goal that fewer than 50,000 American servicemen should be in Iraq by the end of this month, with no US forces in the country by 31 December 2011. American military officials say that Iraqi soldiers are fully prepared to take up their duties and restore stability to the violence-torn nation. However, despite such assertions US officials have not been able to produce tangible evidence to support their optimism, with the country being in the grip of a dangerous political and security imbalance that could push it to the verge of collapse. Hundreds of people have been killed in recent months in a series of roadside bombs, booby-trapped cars and hit-and-run attacks across Iraq. Most of those targeted were policemen, army officers, members of pro- government militias and government officials. On Tuesday, a suicide bomber blew himself up at a crowded Iraqi army recruitment centre in Baghdad, killing 43 people and wounding at least 100 other would-be soldiers. Fears that Iraq's security forces will not be able to control the situation in the country have been voiced ever more vocally as the 31 August deadline nears. Last week, Iraqi Army Chief of Staff General Babaker Zebari warned that the army may not be ready to defend the nation until 2020, adding that it may be necessary for US forces to remain in Iraq until Iraqi soldiers can take full control of security. Regardless of Zebari's motivation, the timing of his statement was widely seen as being a warning as the US drawdown begins. Observers say that the general was reflecting the views of many other Iraqis who feel that the security forces are unprepared or remain sharply divided on sectarian and ethnic lines and are either corrupt or not competent to take up their duties. Although many Iraqis consider the continued US troop presence in the country as being an embarrassing political issue, they still believe Iraq will need US military support well beyond 2011. However, Obama seems to be sticking to his previous announcements, and there have been no signs that he is reconsidering the drawdown plans or even the timing of the withdrawal and its possible consequences. On Monday, the last US combat troops left Iraq, leaving the country to what some say will be an uncertain future. The United States still has six brigades and 94 bases in Iraq, with many asking whether US commanders will in future send their soldiers into battle in case Iraqi forces need their support in fighting a mounting insurgency. Meanwhile, the US administration has dispatched US assistant-secretary of state for near eastern affairs Jeffrey Feltman to Baghdad in a last-ditch bid to push talks forward. Iraqi officials said that Feltman had tried to advance proposals made earlier by US Vice- President Joe Biden in order to arrive at a power-sharing compromise in forming a new Iraqi government, on hold since parliamentary elections earlier this year. Iraqi officials familiar with the talks told the Weekly that the Feltman plan called for the creation of a new Iraqi federal council that would better balance power between Iraq's sectarian and ethnic groups. The US-sponsored deal would mean that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki could continue to hang on to power, though with diluted powers, while his main rival, former prime minister Iyad Allawi, would take up a newly formed position as head of the new federal council, giving him an executive role regarding the security forces. The two men, who have a long history of animosity, both insist on their right to lead the next government. In the March 2010 elections, Al-Maliki's bloc won 89 seats in parliament, while Allawi's list won 91, making it the formal winner. However, neither man has since been able to muster a coalition of the minimum 163 seats required to form a new government. If he accepts the new post, Allawi would head a "council for the coordination of national political strategy," whose members would include the prime minister, his two deputies, the president, the two vice-presidents, the speaker of parliament and the president of the Kurdistan region, together with the ministers of defence, interior and foreign affairs. Iraqi officials speaking on condition of anonymity said the new body would issue binding decisions and effectively provide another layer of checks and balances on the prime minister's powers. The planned council would "coordinate security and military affairs and Iraq's foreign policy," the officials said, thus giving its members the right to veto important decisions. However, the planned council may have hit problems even before it is officially announced, with Ali Al-Adeeb, a close aide to Al-Maliki, describing the plan as a non-starter. "These proposals are unrealistic and will only create multiple leadership in the government, which will further complicate matters," Al-Adeeb said. For its part, Allawi's Sunni-backed Iraqiya List has also shunned the idea and insisted that it alone should name the next prime minister, the bloc having also walked away from coalition talks with Al-Maliki. Following a comment made by Al-Maliki in a television interview aired on Monday, in which he described Iraqiya as a Sunni bloc, the bloc has announced that it will be suspending talks with Al-Maliki's State of Law Coalition until Al-Maliki withdraws his remarks. The Kurds have also proposed a 19-point list of demands that they say must be met before they will join any new government. A document presented by a coalition of Kurdish blocs to different Iraqi political parties in Baghdad this week showed that the Kurds are ready to support a candidate that guarantees their interests. Among the key issues for the Kurds is a commitment to the country's constitution, including to a constitutional article that is expected to endorse Kurdish claims to the oil-rich province of Kirkuk and Kurdish interests under revenue- sharing laws. The present wrangling is further muddying prospects for a deal on a new government in the foreseeable future, let alone before US troops withdraw. As Iraqis watch their politicians arguing over who should be the country's next prime minister and the US leaving the still unsettled and violence-torn country, the real pain may be yet to come.
