Turkish approaches to Damascus confirm that diplomatically Syria is the lynchpin of the region, writes Mustafa El-Labbad* Syria once more took centre stage in regional events. A few days ago, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan brought to Damascus an Israeli offer to pull out of the Golan Heights in return for a peace treaty. His mission, following months of mediation, marked Turkey's most remarkable foray into the Arab-Israeli conflict to date. Its outcome could be wide-ranging. When Erdogan went to Damascus he had more than mediation on his mind. For sometime now, Turkey and Iran have been seeking a major role in the region, one matching at least that of Israel. At a time when the Arabs have failed to offer anything new on the regional scene, other regional powers have decided to try their hand at regional power brokering. Since the 1950s, three Arab countries courted Syria: Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Egypt took Syria into a merger union. Saudi Arabia broke that merger. And Iraq's Baathists briefly courted the Syrians before going off on their own pursuits. When Hafez Al-Assad took power in Syria in the early 1970s, he made a point of keeping aides who were close to the Saudis. The tradition was discontinued by his son, Bashar, whose regime stands accused of involvement in the killing of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri, a friend of the Saudis. As Iran's influence grew across the region, Cairo and Saudi Arabia frowned on Syria's ties with Tehran, going as far as boycotting -- at least at the level of heads of state -- the recent Arab summit in Damascus. The Iranian-Syrian alliance is central to Tehran's regional ambitions. The Iranians are hoping to build a train of loyalties extending through Iraq, Syria, South Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian territories. If successful, Tehran would be calling the shots on the borders with Israel, an immense form of leverage at a time when the peace process is stalled. Iran has historic and sectarian links with Jabal Amel in Lebanon, and therefore sees Syria as its corridor to Lebanon. The Syrian-Iranian alliance has now endured for nearly three decades, a remarkable feat in a volatile region. Ironically, as Tehran boosted its regional influence, Damascus saw its relations with its Arab neighbours ebb. Syria has no real influence in Iraq and Lebanon is slipping out of its hands. Now Turkey wants in. But unlike Tehran it has failed so far to promote itself as a credible player in the region. One reason for that is that Turkey has other things on its mind -- the Caucasus, the Balkans, and the EU. And Turkey is unlikely to get anywhere in the region without edging Iran out first. The Turkish model, as promoted by the Justice and Development Party, is one of peaceful rotation of power combined with economic development. The Arabs could use such a model, everyone says. And the US has tried to promote Turkey as a lynchpin in a "Greater Middle East" scheme, one in which modernity (US- style) is reconciled with cultural and religious traditions. A few months ago, Turkey established a buffer zone on its borders with Iraq. Now it is entering regional dynamics from another door, wearing the hat of peace mediator. As a power broker, Turkey would have a chance of attaining regional credibility. Once the Syrians start negotiating seriously with the Israelis, Iran would have to step aside -- exactly Ankara's plan. In an ethnic and geopolitical sense, Syria is a microcosm of the Middle East. You may recall that the Sykes- Picot Treaty of 1916 -- the treaty that created the regional divisions we now have -- was born in Syria. Ironically, the current borders of today's Syria are so detached from its past that one must think less of Syria as a nation- state than a regional catalyst. Syria's geopolitical potential may explain why regional powers are knocking on its doors. With Iraq under occupation, the Arabs divided, and Iran pushing its luck, Turkey saw its chance. Damascus must be pleased with the rivalries all around it. While forging closer links with Tehran, the Syrians are talking with the Turks and biding their time. Anything they say or do may affect not only their country's future, but also that of the entire region. The Syrian regime is not rich or popular. But it holds the strings to a game that non-Arab powers want to play. More than any other Arab country, Syria is calling the shots today. As has been the case in the past, the quest for Syria is a quest for the region. * The writer is a political analyst specialised in Iranian affairs.
