Saleh Al-Naami examines the prospects for Gaza after the ending of the ceasefire with Israel Abdel-Hadi Al-Muqadma is a hero to thousands of Palestinians living in the central Gaza Strip. He died last Thursday when his gun accidentally went off as he was cleaning it before setting off to guard a forward position of the Qassam brigade, Hamas's military wing. He was among the first elderly Gazans to join the Palestinian resistance when Israel threatened a massive military incursion into Gaza following the end of the ceasefire. After the news of his death dozens of other senior citizens signed up with resistance support units. A climate of impending war looms over Gaza in the wake of Israeli news reports of the Israeli government's plans for a major military offensive in Gaza. Resistance factions have set up more posts around towns, villages and refugee camps, especially those close to the border with Israel. Fighters have been seen taking up positions in nearby fields in order to prevent Israeli special forces units from infiltrating residential areas to carry out assassinations. Booby traps have been planted on roads along which Israeli tanks and other military vehicles are expected to pass. Many training areas have been vacated, forces have been spread to reduce their visibility and, Al-Ahram Weekly has learned, instructions have been issued to military rank and file to reduce their travel by car to avoid being picked out by the unmanned reconnaissance aircraft that have been continuously patrolling Gaza airspace for some time. Israeli media reports suggest that though Israeli forces will initially strike Islamic Jihad targets they also plan on delivering debilitating blows to Hamas's civil and military infrastructure. A military spokesperson told Haaretz that the offensive would begin "soon" and extend beyond the cells responsible for firing missiles to include weapon repositories, workshops where missiles are manufactured and senior cell leaders. Last-minute attempts are being made to forestall Israel's military offensive. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit has asked his Israeli counterpart Tzipi Livni to meet with President Hosni Mubarak today in the hope of dissuading Israel from acting. Within hours after receiving the invitation Livni announced that Israel had no intention of allowing a Hamas state to survive in Gaza. The Weekly has also learned that other Arab and European parties are engaging in an 11th hour drive to persuade the Palestinian factions and Israel to reinstate the Egyptian-brokered truce reached six months ago. An informed Palestinian source says that these efforts have so far failed to produce results though the parties have not yet given up. The developments followed Hamas's declaration that it would no longer abide by the truce. It is Israel, says Ayman Taha, a high ranking Hamas official, that killed the truce when it launched an unprovoked attack against Gaza a month and a half ago, killing 20 Hamas members. "What kind of truce agreement are they talking about when Israel refuses to implement any of the points agreed about lifting the blockade? We are not prepared to sell illusions to our people. We will not allow Israel a ceasefire that it can exploit in order to attack us militarily and tighten the stranglehold on us economically." Hamas, says Taha, will agree to a renewal of the truce only if Israel halts all aggressive activities, lifts all forms of the boycott that it has imposed on a million and a half people in Gaza for more than two years, and applies the truce to the occupied West Bank. In addition, he added, the truce will have to be backed by international guarantees since his movement can no longer "trust agreements made by Israel". Palestinian scholar Nihad Al-Sheikh Khalil describes Hamas's decision to abandon the truce as "wise". He believes it will allow the movement to regain the initiative with respect to Israel, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas, other factions in Gaza, and Egypt. By seizing the keys to either escalation or truce Hamas has created a kind of tacit equilibrium between itself and Israel. "Abu Mazen knows he can only lose if Israel attacks Hamas in Gaza because it will bolster the movement's popularity among the Palestinian people," says Khalil. "Abu Mazen hoped to turn the Palestinian people against Hamas in order to strip it of its legitimacy but he realises that an Israeli military offensive against Hamas will only embarrass him while enhancing the legitimacy of the movement and its leadership." Hamas's announcement to call off the ceasefire, argues Khalil, took Egypt by surprise. Cairo had believed that Hamas was eager to sustain the truce at any price. It had also hoped that Hamas leaders would come to Cairo to ask Egypt to intervene to halt the anticipated Israeli offensive which would have given Cairo the opportunity to pressure Hamas into accepting Egypt's proposal on a Palestinian national dialogue. Hamas leaders, he continues, are banking on the fact that dozens, and even hundreds, of dead and wounded on the streets of Gaza as the result of any Israeli aggression will be deeply embarrassing for the PA and for the so- called moderate Arab axis, of which Egypt is a leading member. Indeed, it is precisely to forestall such a prospect that Cairo is now trying to ward off the anticipated Israeli offensive against Gaza. Even as it prepares to strike, Israel's situation is far from ideal. According to Israeli military commentator Alex Fishman Israeli leaders have not yet recovered from the shock of their last war in Lebanon (2006) and are afraid that Israeli forces may be sucked in too deeply in Gaza. Israeli intelligence reports suggest that Hamas is ready to confront the Israeli army and inflict a high death toll among their soldiers. In addition, Israeli officials are aware that the international community will not remain silent in the face of an offensive in Gaza, "and certainly not once the operation reaches its weak point in which children are killed," as Fishman put it. Yet both army and political leaders feel that they have to press ahead with the offensive as soon as possible. On the one hand, they are unable to justify to Israelis living near Gaza not retaliating against the missile fire from Gaza and on the other fear that failure to act will contribute to a further deterioration in Israel's deterrent power. A likely third compelling factor for attacking Gaza now, from Israel's perspective, is that George Bush is still in power.
