As the aggression on Gaza intensifies, Cairo -- for right or wrong -- has come under fire for its crisis management. But can the recent Egyptian-French initiative limit the damage, asks Dina Ezzat The past 48 hours were certainly ones for shuttle diplomacy on the Middle East. In two days, French President Nicolas Sarkozy visited Sharm El-Sheikh, Ramallah, West Jerusalem, Damascus and Sharm El-Sheikh again. The objective that the French head of state has been trying to meet is all but identical with the Egyptian target: suspend the war on Gaza, if only for a few days. The guidelines involved in the joint Egyptian- French initiative declared in Sharm El-Sheikh on Tuesday night by President Hosni Mubarak and his French counterpart are designed to give the Palestinians -- and not to the disadvantage of Israel -- a break: an immediate ceasefire to allow for the safe transfer of humanitarian assistance into Gaza, to be followed by talks leading to a truce. The ultimate objective is to resume the peace process. But when it comes to the peace process the devil is always in the details. For both the aggressor and the oppressed the details of the joint initiative are not exactly satisfactory. On Wednesday both Israeli President Shimon Peres and Hamas leader Moussa Abu Marzouq said they will study the initiative despite initial reservations. Israel does not feel that the initiative offers a horizon for the ultimate containment of Hamas. Hamas fears that a temporary ceasefire that might entail no more than a down-scale of hostilities for a few days would be used by Israel to expand the aggression. What Hamas wanted is a UN Security Council resolution that would bring about a permanent ceasefire and put an end to the siege. This is precisely what Israel does not want. As Al-Ahram Weekly goes to print, both Hamas and Israel are expected to offer a response to the Egyptian and French sponsors of the initiative. And as President Mubarak declared on Tuesday evening in Sharm El-Sheikh, an agreement by both sides would allow for Cairo to host representatives of both sides, along with those of the Palestinian Authority and may be other Arab and Quartet partners to start talks on a permanent truce. Whatever comes out of this initiative, for Egypt it was a clear sign of an attempt to end the Israeli aggression on Gaza. The aggression, Egyptian officials assess, has cost Egypt too much political damage and has in many ways left it with serious national security threats. The challenge that Egypt is facing over the brutal Israeli aggression on Gaza goes far beyond the containment of the situation on Egypt's border with Gaza or for that matter legal and efficient humanitarian management of the Rafah Crossing. As Israel's war on Gaza gets more brutal, Egypt is faced with harder challenges. Egyptian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, admit that the toughest concern is direct national security. The situation in Gaza is explosive, they say. Unanimously they add that when it explodes it will "explode in our face". One obvious way for this "explosion" to occur is for the Rafah border to be breached, either as a side effect to Israeli air strikes on alleged tunnels in the area or as a result of deliberate Palestinian action to allow civilians to flee the air, sea and ground attacks that Israel is conducting against the densely populated and extremely impoverished Strip. It happened in January 2008, Egyptian officials acknowledge, and it could happen again, especially if ongoing diplomatic efforts -- to which Egypt is contributing all its strength -- fail to get Israel to agree to a ceasefire within the coming days. "Egyptian border guards could not have targeted Palestinians with bullets in January [2008] when they were escaping the harsh siege and it would be impossible for them to do this in a scenario whereby the Palestinian women and children would be escaping Israeli hell," commented one official who asked for his name to be withheld. Nonetheless, Egypt has been taking the necessary steps on the ground to prevent a new outbreak, though it knows that there are no guarantees. Concerning a possible influx from Gaza, officials have serious concerns over a prolonged stay of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians. There are also concerns about the smuggling of arms into Egypt and the possible use of such weaponry to launch retaliatory attacks against national or foreign targets. Security has been stepped up and the zone nearing Rafah is continuously combed and monitored. Security, in its narrow sense, is not the only concern. There are also concerns in relation to stability. Demonstrations have taken place in Arish, near Rafah, to express frustration at the ongoing Israeli attacks. And there are concerns that such demonstrations could reoccur and expand. "As the war on Gaza prolongs, anger expands among Egyptians; and it is only predictable for a nation that has always associated itself with the Palestinian cause," commented the same official. The prolonged Israeli war on Gaza, coming on the back of an 18-month siege that John Holmes, UN emergency relief coordinator, said has created a humanitarian disaster in the Strip, is also causing Egypt problems with Hamas. Since the Hamas takeover of Gaza in June 2007, Cairo has not been particularly subtle in its criticism of Hamas, or in its support of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas who is portrayed by Hamas as a sworn foe. For its contacts with Hamas to be severed by the Islamic resistance movement's open blaming of Egypt for its stance on the war on Gaza would have been, however, the last thing Egypt would have wanted. Egypt has been working hard to keep in touch with Hamas. So far, the Islamic movement has responded. Indeed, on Monday evening a small Hamas delegation was expected to arrive to discuss with Egyptian security and political officials the prospects and conditions for a ceasefire, a subsequent reopening of the Rafah Crossing, and the resumption of Palestinian national reconciliation dialogue that Egypt has been hoping to mediate between Hamas, Fatah and other secular and Islamist Palestinian factions. However, while Cairo was preparing to receive this delegation, and while it has pressured Abbas to bow to Hamas demands for the Palestinian Authority to release Hamas elements arrested in the West Bank, which is under the control of Fatah, Hamas spokesman Mohamed Nizal publicly announced that it was the wish of Hamas for Turkey to be the mediator between the Islamic resistance movement, the rest of the world and Fatah. "In Turkey we have trust," Nizal said shortly after Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had announced his commitment to convey Hamas's views to the UN Security Council and with regard to further political tasks. If Egypt were to see Turkey taking over the Palestinian file it would not be amused. This would be a clear political loss for Cairo, which has been trying very hard since the outbreak of the Israeli aggression -- and before on many occasions -- to deny allegations of failure. Egyptian officials insist that the country's political value for many influential world quarters relates to a great deal to its stake in the Arab-Israeli struggle. The last thing Egypt wishes to see on the eve of the inauguration of a new US administration is a deterioration of its regional role, especially in relation to the Palestinian issue. "This is not coming round. There are challenges posed here and there, but Egypt is still on top of things," argued an Egyptian diplomat who simultaneously acknowledged the attempts of others, "Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey", to take the driver's seat on the Palestinian issue. For Egypt to ward off these security and political challenges it will need, officials admit, to act on two tracks simultaneously and promptly. The first is to speed up prospects of a ceasefire to days rather than weeks. In Sharm El-Sheikh Monday, President Hosni Mubarak pressed French President Nicolas Sarkozy and a European ministerial delegation to secure an immediate ceasefire putting an end to Palestinian bloodshed, and to prevent a looming humanitarian disaster in Gaza. Meanwhile, Egyptian diplomacy has been hard at work on the Arab and international levels to promote the renewal of a long-term "calm" between Israel and Hamas. Egypt, however, is not willing to allow the presence of international observers on its side of the border with Gaza as part of any ceasefire package. Nor is it willing to allow for the operation of Rafah Crossing absent "some sort of presence" of the Palestinian Authority and European monitors on the Palestinian side of the border. Meanwhile, it is not planning to pull its ambassador from Tel Aviv or to expel Israel's ambassador in Cairo. Yet intense diplomacy and scaled-up security may not prove sufficient, at least in the long term. Cairo is already faced with considerable Arab criticism. This week, the emir of Qatar indirectly criticised Egypt for its failure to open Rafah for the population of Gaza and for its failure to respond positively to his call for an emergency Arab summit. Syria boycotted an emergency meeting of the Arab parliament that convened at the Cairo headquarters of the Arab League. On the home front, the Egyptian opposition is expressing disappointment over the refusal of Cairo to recall its ambassador to Israel, as Mauritania did Monday. According to officials who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly, Cairo does not expect another front of confrontation to open, such as the south of Lebanon with Hizbullah, at this time. It does not, however, categorically exclude such a scenario transpiring, especially if Israel chooses to extend its war on Gaza for a few weeks. The economic consequences of such a development alone would be catastrophic for Egypt, which fears a further decline in its foreign currency revenues generated from tourism and the Suez Canal. "The focus now is to capitalise on the sense of interest that Hamas is clearly demonstrating in a ceasefire, and to offer Hamas and Israel a face-saving exit," commented an Egyptian source. In this, Egypt is seeking all possible help. On Monday, Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister Hussein Haridi agreed to receive the Iranian charge d'affaires, Husseini Ragab. This meeting was green-lighted at a very high level, despite Egyptian frustration with Iran's open and harsh criticism of Egypt's management of the crisis in Gaza. Egypt is also accommodating US technical "assistance" in blocking "all" tunnels allegedly dug between Egypt and Gaza by Palestinians and sympathising Egyptians. Meanwhile, on a ceasefire, progress appears slow. "Israel is determined to keep its war, at least for a while. This is the shared international assessment," commented an Egyptian source. "We all believe that there has to be a ceasefire, but so far we have not been able to get to that," said French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner following talks in Egypt with top officials. French President Sarkozy said that he is working with President Mubarak on a joint initiative that he will promote in Syria before taking it to the UN. The crux of this initiative is a ceasefire with guarantees that Hamas will not be in a position to fire rockets at Israel in the future, and that Israel would end its devastating siege of 18 months on Gaza.
