Wobbling woefully, South Africa's ruling ANC is struggling against a crisis worse than a coup, writes Gamal Nkrumah "The current flows fast and furious," so the adage concocted by Virginia Woolf goes. "It issues in a spate of words from the loudspeakers and the politicians. Every day they tell us that we are a free people fighting to defend freedom." Woolf's memorable words sound as if they were tailor-made for the post-apartheid South Africa. In hindsight, the distinction between loudspeakers and politicians was prophetic. The South African people, the Rainbow nation, will soon have its say. Elections are scheduled to take place sometime between April and June. And, the world will be watching. It is all very odd. It started with a dramatic split and might end up in a cataclysmic shift in emphasis as far as South African democracy is concerned. The forthcoming 2009 general elections are something of a cliffhanger. The current South African National Assembly was elected on 14 April 2004 and expires on 13 April 2009. The ANC secured 70 per cent of the votes in the 2004 elections, and the party is expected to garner most of the 400 seats in the National Assembly as it has since the end of the apartheid 15 years ago. Under the South African constitution, elections must be held within 90 days of the expiry of the parliament. Politicking within the ANC aside, the biggest surprise in 2008 was the formation of a new political party that challenges the ANC's traditional stranglehold over the South African political establishment. The emergence of the Congress of the People (COPE) on South Africa's political scene is, perhaps, the best way to demonstrate the country's political maturity. COPE is taking a gamble but, on the face of it, it looks like the ANC gambit is riskier. COPE injects a degree of competition and choice into the South African political establishment that up to now has looked like an ANC monopoly. That was the biggest split since the Pan-African Congress broke away from the ANC in 1959. South Africa has long been a beacon of democracy in Africa, but not particularly proficient at pluralistic politics. Opposition parties come and go, and the ANC remains. It is against this rather predictable backdrop that the somewhat maverick figure of Jacob Zuma, leader of the ANC, comes into play. On the one hand he is a populist, but on the other he is expected to avoid hubris and seek the strengthening of South Africa's democratic institutions. Zuma merits plaudits for sticking to his guns. For his doggedness, he deserves the whole-hearted backing of his followers and henchmen -- and women. Zuma, battling with corruption charges, has recently married for the fifth time. He was implicated in sexual harassment scandals in the past. Yet, his supporters do not view such shortcomings as risqué. Zuma has the unrestrained support of the ANC Youth League, the South African Communist Party and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU). However, there are pockets of resistance to his leadership. The ANC has helped to reinvent itself and shake off an image of outdatedness, thanks in large measure to Zuma himself. That change of guard fits with earlier dissident demands for a change of leadership. Zuma's forthright manner and irrepressible flair for upsetting opponents might turn him into a more controversial president than his predecessors. The ANC launched its manifesto on Saturday pledging to provide more jobs. But will all the different races and ethnic groups in South Africa go along with that? Will they pay allegiance to Zuma? COPE leader Mosiuoa Lekota is not regarded as a real threat to Zuma. He is no political novice, though. Another grey man bites the dust? Lekota is not nicknamed "Terror" for nothing. He, too, is unconventional. But he is unlikely to upstage Zuma. His abilities, however, will not be lost to the new president. As COPE continues its dizzy rise to power, it becomes ever clearer that Lekota cannot subordinate himself to Zuma. The excitement lies in the probable collapse of the old political order and the realignment it will herald. South African President Kgalema Motlane has long warned of the threat posed by political instability. COPE chose the very name under which the ANC and its allies in the "Congress Movement" met in 1955 and adopted the Freedom Charter. The big question is whether that is a false choice. So is COPE a second best choice? The hitch with this reasoning is that it reinforces the sacredness of the one-party system under whatever guise. The mood in the ANC is certainly more hawkish. Multi-partyism as a problem solver is credible, but it is not trouble free. A coalition government might well be in the offing. Not all such deals are bad. The potential flash point might prove to be the reluctance of South Africans to pay obeisance to the official line. But not, it seems, as far as talks with the ANC leadership is concerned. Any attempt to mete out punishment to dissenters will backfire in a country like South Africa. ANC arrogance and unilateralism can no longer be tolerated. And, it creates extra scope for the opposition to manoeuvre. The snub was considered as a mild rebuke. This brought an outright welcome. The ANC cannot keep outsiders at bay. Which is why change might come at last. Nothing about South African politics is simple. Contrary to outside assumptions, it is not either black or white. It is seductive to think that Zuma would win plaudits from the labouring classes. And, let us face it: Zuma has plenty of followers. Jacob Zuma is for once, if not in the right, then at least he is less wrong than those calling for his head. Zuma was disgraced after his former advisor and friend Schabir Shaik was found guilty of corruption. Not surprisingly, Zuma was implicated. Zuma went out of his way to stress that he was innocent. Others fear otherwise. Then there are those who fear that South Africa never quite lived up to its noble anti-apartheid ideals. Both fears are unreasonable, I suspect. Indeed, the South African experience may prove instructive to other nascent African democracies. It is ironic that the last African country to throw off the shackles of colonialism and European settler colonialism has metamorphosed into the trendsetter. South Africa is perhaps the only country on the continent not to have wavered in its experiment with Western-style multi- party democracy. Elsewhere, however, the taboos still rule in one way or another. Democracy helps South Africans define their South Africaness. Until recently, the Democratic Alliance (DA), headed by the mayor of Cape Town Helen Zille, was widely regarded as the chief opposition party. The DA has so far failed to field a presidential candidate. The United Democratic Movement of Bantu Holomisa and the Inkhatha Freedom Party of Magosuthu Buthelezi are foregone conclusions. Zuma has grassroots support campaigners who understand that South Africa has undeniably had its ups and downs. Some in the crowds at Zuma rallies are liberals. Standing up for democracy sometimes entails the dangerous mobilisation of the authoritarian rabble. So far there have not been any violent clashes between the South African political protagonists. Its detractors say that COPE is trying to oust a popular ruling party on the bogus pretext that South African democracy is deeply flawed because of virtual one party monopoly of political power. Former defence minister and ANC chairman "Terror" Lekota broke with the mainstream ANC over the firing of Mbeki last September. Precipitated the dismissal of former president Mbeki, a call for change was put into motion. "There is a ring of the works of Kafka about this," Judge Chris Nicholson of the Pietermaritzburg High Court summed up the current South African political dilemma. The Supreme Court of Appeal of South Africa did not favour Zuma, confirming the independence of the judiciary in the country. South Africa's Appeal Court ruling handed down on Monday is no insignificant occurrence in contemporary Africa. The appeal by prosecutors against a lower court ruling declared invalid on procedural grounds demonstrated certain dynamism. Overturning the ruling is proof of the sheer vibrancy of South African democracy.
