Will Sudan's president be indicted? Gamal Nkrumah reviews the possible ramifications On 4 March the International Criminal Court (ICC), based in The Hague, Netherlands, will rule on whether or not to issue an international warrant indicting Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir on charges of war crimes in Darfur. Indicting the Sudanese president would have serious repercussions not only on the Sudanese political scene but across the regional and international arena. Such an ICC ruling could derail the fragile peace process brokered by Qatar, the Arab League and the African Union. Khalil Ibrahim, leader of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), one of the main Darfur armed opposition groups, recently announced his support for an indictment, unleashing a flurry of speculation about the fate of the Qatari-brokered Darfur peace process. Ibrahim had just returned from Qatar where he met with representatives of the Sudanese president presumably to clinch a peace deal. The possible indictment Al-Bashir raises an inevitable question: why should an African and Arab leader face the ICC while ex-president George W Bush and Israeli leaders act with impunity? Al-Bashir's indictment is likely to prove divisive not only in Sudan but across the Arab world and Africa. If the indictment by the ICC goes ahead it would set a precedent about which Arab and African leaders are far from enthused. Little surprise, then, that the vast majority of Arab and African leaders have expressed unconditional support for Al-Bashir. The Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), the main coalition partner of Al-Bashir's ruling National Congress Party (NCP), has expressed reservations about any ICC move. As far as war crimes in Darfur are concerned, however, the SPLA has struck an ambiguous note. SPLA leaders have warned that to advance Sudanese democracy and government transparency military chiefs and their hangers-on in Darfur must be brought to book. The SPLA, however, insists that it will not condone any division of Sudan. The SPLA reportedly provided arms, ammunition and training to Darfur's Sudan's Liberation Army (SLA) as early as March 2002, when the SLA was still known as the Darfur Liberation Front. SPLA leader Salva Kiir has hinted that his movement may be able to help in resolving the conflict in Darfur. The Sudanese government strongly opposes any SPLA mediation efforts. The high-profile visits of Arab dignitaries such as the emir of Qatar to Khartoum are widely expected to highlight the humanitarian crisis in war-torn Darfur. Washington, too, is closely collaborating with the European Union in order to avert a humanitarian disaster in Darfur. United States President Barack Obama has signalled that resolving the Darfur crisis is a priority of his administration. Washington is also coordinating activities with erstwhile foes of Al-Bashir on redressing the wrongs of the past, not least those committed against the innocent civilians in Darfur. Yet far from being weakened by the spectre of an imminent warrant for his arrest on charges of genocide President Al-Bashir has been using the threat to bolster his own position. The Arab League is standing by the beleaguered Sudanese president and the African Union has offered him unbridled support. Jean Ping, the chairman of the AU Commission, was hastily dispatched to Sudan to garner support for the embattled country. "We cannot understand the timing of this decision. While we are trying to extinguish the fire here with our troops they chose this exact moment to put more oil on the flames by taking a decision to issue an arrest warrant for President Al-Bashir," Ping said angrily. What will happen to the AU-UN peacekeeping mission in Darfur (UNAMID) if the ICC indictment takes place is unclear. At the moment there are less than 10,000 international -- mostly African -- troops stationed in Darfur, where the UN has sanctioned the deployment of 28,000 peacekeepers. Another pressing issue concerns the coordination of armed opposition groups in Darfur necessary to speed the political peace process. As long as the Darfur opposition forces are fragmented it remains difficult for the Sudanese government to conduct peace talks. Last but not least is the contentious question of Chadian-Sudanese relations. The AU is committed to mending fences between Sudan and Chad. Chadian President Idris Deby has accused the Sudanese government of militarily backing Chadian armed opposition forces in their invasion of the Chadian capital Ndjamena in February. The Sudanese government, meanwhile, says the Chadian authorities assisted JEM in storming Omdurman. The threat to indict Al-Bashir, which ripples across the whole of Sudan's internal politics, has also provided a rallying call as the majority of Sudanese opposition leaders come out in favour of the president. "The Sudanese political establishment, government and opposition are determined to advance the interests of Sudan. We have demonstrated a unique form of solidarity. This is a defining moment for Sudan," Sadig Al-Mahdi, leader of the opposition Umma Party whose government was overthrown in a military coup d'état led by Al-Bashir in 1989, told Al-Ahram Weekly.
