The Special Tribunal came under the spotlight this week, reports Lucy Fielder from Beirut Hizbullah ratcheted up its campaign against the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) this week, as the country's two wrangling blocs appeared to hunker down for a protracted battle. The Shia group and its allies trained their sights on discussions over the budget, which includes funding for the court. The cabinet delayed debating the budget after the opposition raised objections to Lebanon's pledged contribution of 49 per cent of the expenses of the court, established last year to try the still-elusive suspects in the killing of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri. According to some local media, the absence of a number of ministers, including Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri, prevented a showdown. Hizbullah's criticism of the court boiled over into outright opposition two months ago after Secretary- General Hassan Nasrallah announced that he expected, based on information given to him by Saad himself, that "rogue elements" of his party would be indicted in the 2005 assassination. Al-Hariri publicly reneged on his long-standing accusation of Syria for his father's death last month. Media reports suggest an indictment may come at the end of this year or early 2011. Analysts believe Syria, which is apparently off the hook but is also a staunch ally of Hizbullah, is now putting increasing pressure on Al-Hariri to formally renounce the tribunal. Pro-parliamentary minority Al-Akhbar newspaper ran a front-page photograph of Al-Hariri this week. With the caption "What they want him to say", a mock-up quote ran across his face, which read: "I, Saad Rafik Al-Hariri, consider the issuing of any indictment that directly or indirectly accuses Hizbullah of involvement in the killing of my father means that the international court is politicised, and I will reject that indictment." The accompanying opinion piece by Fida Itani said Israel was preparing for war within the year and Syria wanted Al-Hariri to play ball clearly and publicly on the tribunal. "The fortification of Lebanon from within is a necessity, and it is unacceptable to leave things as they currently are," Itani wrote. Hizbullah and its allies are also turning up the heat on the false witnesses" issue. Former head of General Security Jamil Al-Sayed, one of the four generals arrested and imprisoned for four years without charge, has accused Al-Hariri of backing several witnesses who came forward after Al-Hariri's killing with evidence pointing to Syrian involvement, then retracted it later. Al-Sayed's arrest was prompted by the recanted testimony. 8 March politicians are increasingly focussing on the witnesses as a way to prove the tribunal is politicised and lacks credibility, and say that uncovering who put them up to it will lead to the true culprit. The budget wrangle came a week after what many saw as a Hizbullah show of force at Beirut's Rafik Al-Hariri International Airport, as they came to greet him upon his return from France last week and escorted him home, an action condemned by opponents as a coup attempt and an "invasion" of the airport. Al-Sayed had called upon the Lebanese to rise up against Al-Hariri's government, which prompted Prosecutor-General Said Mirza, viewed as pro-Hariri by the opposition, to issue a summons for him to answer questions about the statements. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, a renowned political weather-vane whose defection last year from the pro-Hariri 14 March bloc showed how the balance of power in the country had shifted away from the pro-Western camp, said this week he wished the court he once strongly supported had never been created. Western powers had settled on The Hague tribunal as the best way to sow strife in Lebanon after earlier campaigns had failed, he said. "The best way to ensure justice for Rafik Al-Hariri and the other martyrs would be through a joint [Lebanese] position exposing the truth about the false witnesses and rejecting the tribunal's exploitation by some major states in the context of the game of the nations, to serve their own interests instead of serving justice." Many Lebanese, including many among the court's supporters, fear that a Hizbullah indictment could spark Sunni-Shia strife in Lebanon, at the very least. The Hariris are Sunni, and a rallying point for many of their co-religionists in Lebanon. Analysts are increasingly questioning whether quitting may be Al-Hariri's only way out of making the unenviable choice between supporting the tribunal he staked his political future on at the risk of civil strife, or turning his back on the international community that supported his demands for a court by caving in to pressure to condemn it as politicised. "It is increasingly clear that [the court's] opponents have largely succeeded in convincing a majority of the Lebanese public [through a mixture of persuasion and intimidation] that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is bad news for the country," Lebanese-American political analyst Elias Muhanna wrote on his respected Qifa Nabki blog. "What will Al-Hariri do when Hizbullah demands that the government formally renounce its support for the STL, on pain of a million-man march on the prime minister's office, à la 2006?" Muhanna concluded his post by predicting Al-Hariri's resignation, following a general policy of dealing with challenges through "sustained absence". The prime minister has a reputation for being abroad -- often visiting his backer Saudi Arabia -- whenever trouble stalks Lebanon. "One imagines that he may even feel relief when someone calls his bluff," he wrote. Osama Safa, head of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies, did not believe resignation was in the cards for Al-Hariri. "Resigning would cost him his political future. I think he's trying to call the opposition's bluff until the indictment is issued," he said. "14 March and the opposition are trying to gather as many pressure points as possible. One is the budget, another is the issue of false witnesses." Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar has completed a report on the false witnesses issue and distributed it to ministers. He ruled that Lebanon had the jurisdiction to try the witnesses. "But I don't think that will be enough for the opposition," Safa said. Much awaits Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to Lebanon, probably in October. Like a Syrian-Saudi summit in Beirut in late July, the reception he receives and the subsequent domestic rhetoric, particularly on the part of Iranian- backed Hizbullah, are likely to indicate whether escalation or an easing of tensions is on the table.
