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Taking the pulse
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 23 - 04 - 2009

Doaa El-Bey looks at the American push to reach a two-state solution
In a bid to boost Middle East peace talks, President Barack Obama invited the leaders of Egypt, the Palestinian Authority and Israel to visit Washington in the next few weeks.
Egypt's Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit told reporters on Wednesday that the meetings with the three leaders will be separate. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will be first, followed by Palestine President Mahmoud Abbas, then President Hosni Mubarak.
Abul-Gheit added that Mubarak's visit "may require prior consultations to ensure the visit is successful."
Concerning the reason behind the invitations and whether they reflect US seriousness in moving the peace process, Abul-Gheit said, "Let's hope so."
In the meetings, Obama will discuss ways the US can strengthen and deepen its partnership with them, as well as the steps all parties must take to help achieve peace between Israelis and Palestinians, and between Israel and Arab states.
Abbas responded quickly to Obama's invitation after a high-ranking Palestinian official said he will meet Obama in Washington on 28 May.
Senior Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erakat described the meeting as very important for peace. "President Abbas will ask President Obama to work for the vision of two states and to introduce mechanisms towards that end, which will in effect mean the immediate stop to settlement activity in all Palestinian territories."
No date has yet been set for President Mubarak's visit. The meeting between the two leaders is likely to improve Washington's relationship with Mubarak who has not visited the US since 2004.
Netanyahu is due to travel to Washington on 18 May but this has not been confirmed.
Obama's invitation came a few days after US envoy George Mitchell toured the Middle East, indicating not only how seriously the US administration is taking the Middle East but how big the differences are between the key players.
During meetings with Abbas, Mubarak and Saudi King Abdullah, Mitchell once again stated clearly that the US is seeking a two-state solution. "It has been the policy of the US for many years that the resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict lies in a two-state solution," Mitchell said at the end of his meeting with Mubarak.
The Israeli cabinet did not show the same enthusiasm for the two-state solution during Mitchell's visit to Tel Aviv. As the Israeli Interior Minister Eli Yishai put it: "One has to work not for two states for two people but for two economies for two people."
Israel took the opportunity of Mitchell's visit to issue several statements underlining that Israel is a Jewish state and that the Israeli government does not recognise any agreements concluded in Annapolis. While those statements suggest a defiant Israeli stand, Netanyahu is expected to endorse a two-state solution sooner or later, though with a host of conditions.
Abdel-Raouf El-Reidi, Egypt's former ambassador to the US, says fundamental differences remain between the US, Palestinians, Egypt and the Arabs on the one hand and Israel on the other. However, as the conviction in Washington grows that a two-state solution is in the interest of US national security, he expects Tel Aviv to come under increasing pressure to toe the American line.
Mohamed Bassiouni, Egypt's former ambassador to Israel, agrees with Reidi. The US, he says, can exert political as well as economic pressure on Israel. He points out that President George Bush pressured Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir to attend the Madrid conference in 1991, and there is nothing to stop Obama from using the same US aid card.
Not that Washington is likely to rush things. "Given time Obama will be able to gain more support in Congress and within parts of the Jewish lobby that will help him pressure Israel if needed. Nor should we discount the possibility of changes in the Israeli government. Netanyahu may lose his majority which could lead to forming a new coalition or to new elections," El-Reidi told Al-Ahram Weekly.
And, as Bassiouni points out, simply securing Israeli agreement on a two-state solution is not the end of the line. Six core issues -- "borders, security arrangements, Jerusalem, Palestinian refugees, water and settlements" -- must all be resolved.
"These look like major problems but there are solutions to each of them if there is genuine political will in Israel to pursue a peaceful settlement to the Palestinian issue. There is no room for words or manoeuvring," says Bassiouni.
Meanwhile, the Palestinians must unite in order to prevent Netanyahu from claiming Israel has no partner for peace, and Palestinian decision-making placed firmly in the hands of the Palestinians rather than being twisted by external parties. "Until then, nothing can force Netanyahu to engage in serious talks with the Palestinians in order to establish the Palestinian state," Bassiouni told Al-Ahram Weekly.
During his visit to Egypt Mitchell met Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa who said after their meeting that they discussed ways to reach a just and comprehensive peace and establish a Palestinian state on land occupied in 1967, in addition to ending Israeli occupation of Arab land.
In a separate development that is likely to improve Egypt's relations with Israel and have a positive impact on peace, Egypt's Chief of General Intelligence Omar Suleiman visited Israel yesterday, to hold talks with Netanyahu, Defence Minister Ehud Barak and Deputy Defence Minister Matan Vilnai.


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