By Salama A Salama Against all the odds, some extraordinary ways of transferring power still survive today. Humanity may have made great advances over the past century or so, yet some nations seem to be stuck in the past, clueless about the world beyond their borders and powerless to shape their own futures. Take North Korea, for example. This is a country with an impressive arsenal of weapons, including nuclear warheads, that seems to have spurned the community of nations and is distant even from what used to be its other half, South Korea. Separated since the Korean War, one part of Korea remains stubbornly communist while the other has gone western. For all their bonds of geography and blood ties, the separation of the two Koreas is a seemingly permanent fact born out of endless skirmishes and wars. The South Koreans have America on their side, while the North Koreans look to China for protection and support. For all its reconciliatory rhetoric, China doesn't seem willing to tolerate any criticism of North Korea, not by America, Japan or South Korea. Now, North Korea's one and only leader, Kim Jong- il, is said to be seriously ill. He had taken over from his father, the unforgettable Kim Il-song, a couple of decades back. On a recent visit to China, Kim Jong-il is believed to have asked the Chinese to give their blessing for his son, Kim Jong- un, to be his successor. The isolation of North Korea seems only to reinforce its outdated ways. Here is a country that is unique in its rigid loyalty to an almost obsolete system of governance, and yet it plods on, leaning on China for support. And the Chinese don't seem to mind lending a hand, although they didn't oppose UN sanctions on North Korea. This is something that is not that different from what we see in the Arab world, where regimes hang on to power, backed by the army and a single party and oblivious to personal freedoms and contemptuous of civil society organisations. Such regimes are beholden to an unshakable personality cult, one focussed on their president. Meanwhile, complete hegemony over the chain of command makes the regime act more like a monarchy than a state with modern institutions. When it is time for a younger son to be elevated to power, he is given a position qualifying him for the presidency. So the ruling Workers' Party in the North Korean capital Pyongyang has held its first convention in 30 years to elect a new leadership, and suddenly Kim Jong-un has obtained the rank of general, as is fitting for the country's future leader. For some reason, the new leaders of such regimes seem to take a keen interest in sports. The Swiss- educated Kim Jong-un is said to be a skilled basketball player. Whatever the case may be, he will have to win the confidence of the party's top leaders and the army's commanders in the days and months to come. Countries neighbouring North Korea don't seem to be too disturbed by the domestic scene in Pyongyang. Instead, what they want is for the North Koreans to go back to the six-party talks on nuclear non- proliferation: the sinking of a South Korean ship by the North Koreans in March this year is a nasty reminder of what happens when diplomacy fails. For America and the West, what matters most is that the current transition in North Korea takes place without problems. There are fears of the regime's unravelling completely in the case of famine or of a revolt in the armed forces. If China does not maintain its economic support for the new regime, things could go badly wrong in Pyongyang. Some in the West hope to see North Korea undergoing modernisation similar to that which took place in China under Deng Xiaoping. Some hope that the old guard will give way to a new team of reformers, but such optimism has so far been unfounded.
